Wide ranging changes are sure to be ahead but not completely like a social democrats thinks. It will be a compromise of globalism and nationalism also populism and socialism. One thing is certain about the future and that is the world will be much less affluent. This is because no economic engine generates economic activity like full blown globalism. Globalism will be adapted to shorter value chains and less activity. There will be a reduction in growth both proactively in an attempt for more resilience and passively systematically by physics of a system doing less. Resilience is expensive because sustainable activity means less hyper productivity and more activity that has backup and locally grounded. Hyper efficiency that is focused on more with less will be adapted towards less means more of less activity but more stocks of things. Behavior will be adapted by fear and reality. No longer will the traditional social narratives stand after they have been means tested by the pandemic. The best practices and knowledge will be easier to pinpoint because a new wisdom will have emerged to show just how fragile the system of the past was.
That said competing interest will have to negotiate their way through this. The give and take of cooperation on multiple levels will occur settling on those that show the most strength with a basis in science but also political will. This of course must be weighed in on by the turbulence of decline with economic abandonment, dysfunctional systems, and irrational policy. That will actually be raw and exposed leading to crisis efforts that will naturally be good and bad. The rich will take the biggest hit because globalism was about a huge amount of economic activity but much of that was malinvestment and bubbles. With the advent of a poorer world bubbles have been popped and malinvestment will be less affordable. Digital wealth will evaporate in both deflation of less things made but also inflation of fiat wealth that will be a stealth haircut. The poor will get poorer but with the possibility of a different life more tuned into a localism of economic activity. Localism will increase by default.
These changes will not be easy and the results will be less things and more hard work. Yet, there can be more spiritual benefits of meaning that comes with better human scale. This all could be shattered by war and conflict which often happen in these historically defining moments. I don’t think war will happen because the whole world has been wounded. I see a consensus within nations for retraction that will force the deep states in all nations to lose influence. Military activity is hugely expensive and will not be sustainable but don’t expect that to change immediately. There will be a time of a very dangerous vacuum. Poorer equals less so this will be an accelerated decline process that could cascade out of control or better it might be a pathway to a more stable level of world governess and economic activity. This could mean a smaller more sustainable world but still too much for the reality of planetary health. Further declines will be ahead but maybe not for some years.
The 100% renewable world of eco-socialism will evaporate but not before an effort to utilize the best of it. Small scale renewables are an excellent enhancer of localism. Protection for locals will likely result from efforts to end the delocalization of globalism. Yet, populism will be a strong force to limit the extremes of migration found in globalism. Border will become harder. Traditional values will return that were once practiced like old fashion male female relationships with home economics and community activity of local people with shared boundaries. Less travel and movement by a poorer world means more respect for geographic uniqueness. These are just some possibilities but one thing is for certain the world has been upended and some kind of change is ahead good and bad. This is just the type of thing a green prepper will embrace.
REAL Green Adaptation 