Trend Inversion

When I write these things, I am in many ways writing to myself.  I am struggling to maintain what I have and still feel like I am growing and being productive.  I am doing this as I age with my mental and physical vigor waning over time.  One benefit of old age is an increase in wisdom which comes naturally from a long life of experience but just as importantly living the reality of less from aging.  Learning to do less and still feal good about your efforts is an important aspect of this wisdom of aging.  In some ways what the global civilization is facing is old age but with the failure typical of those who want to remain young.  Either they look like crap from not living their age or they live beyond their means with lifestyles that do not reflect their reality of their old age.

I have highlighted parts of the above article to reflect on in regards to trend inversion of civilization and the planet.  This on all levels inversion is so critical to understand if you desire a best practices lifestyle to negotiate the coming decline and failure of our global civilization.

“It’s further assumed that these secular trends are always positive – each recovery exceeds the preceding recession, and each market rebound more than cancels out the latest dip.  This latter assumption has reached the point of invalidation. What economies and markets are now experiencing is trend-inflexion. Cyclicality may indeed continue but, from here on, it will do so around downwards-inflected trends. This process of reversal can only be managed if it is recognized.”

My last post I titled inflection so this post from surplus energy economics dot com caught my attention.  This is an excellent post I urge you to read in full.  I have taken some notes and would like to offer my REAL Green interpretations.  I am speaking to people who can change, who have the funds, time, and education.  Many have some of these vital elements of adaptation.   Many have none and are trapped without options.  This adaptation is needed to negotiate a decline in energy and economics that will alter daily life from now on.  This is why I call this trend inversion and we are at the trend inflection of the tipping over into decline. 

This “trend-inflection” in a systematic sense means the centuries of exceptional material growth has shifted.  We are at the peak now so this shift is disguised with a growth and decline interaction.  The narrative disguises this inflection with techno optimism propaganda.  Energy, economics, and technological innovation are now tilted into a trajectory of decline.  At some point far off in the future a stasis will be found where the compression of affluence will stabilize and possibly inflect towards growth again.  This will likely be generations hence and the growth will not be the growth we see today.  This will be a vastly different world for generations unborn.

The key to this trend inflection of our existential condition is this will not be the same everywhere.   This decline will likely be a stairstep down much like we see with financial markets.   Complete failure is not out of the question.  If you have the right stuff then make sure and find a good location and lifestyle to attempt constructive growth.  This will not be like the great depression of the 30s where within a few years growth returns.  For some places decline will come later than others.  It is still unclear how quickly this decline will occur and the degree and duration.  This is a complex self-organizing system with many unknowns.  We will know it in the review mirror.  Honest science says we are in the vicinity of a noticeable downward inflection.

The forces of the technocratic globalist and their social and technological policy pursuits are going to take us into a sharp down turn much quicker.  This will be dirtier and more painful then to just leave things as they were.  What is needed is decentralization not centralization.  Technocracy is a centralization with knowledge and tech.   What is needed is less tech not more.  This is a dramatic contrast between what is needed and the policies of globalist technocrats of the World Economic Forum.  This proposed system is evil in the sense of being anti-life and pro-machine.  The machine has no conscience or soul.  Here I speak of soul as a life force.  This system wants to merge man with the machine because a conscience and a soul inhibits efficiency and control.

REAL Green is about green prepping.  What is green is more prepped.  This is about homesteading and permaculture in a hybridization of the old ways with modern things and knowledge. This hybridization turbo charges the old ways.  Simple and appropriate tech boosted with modern value allows these old ways to survive the modern tendency to cancel inefficient activities with cost constraints.   This hybridization will lose strength along with the trend-inversion.  This is because as net energy and economics decline an accelerated compression will occur that will wring out beneficial technologies and quality products useful in this hybridization.  Production and knowledge storage will decay over time as the compression of affluence accelerates.  This hybridization has the most important now in the inflection where growth is entering decline.  Build up and collect what you can now in your lifeboat on the sea of destructive change.  This unavailability means salvage is vital.  Salvage will extend this hybridization process.

Triage is part of this hybridization process because it is required to remove poor value items and practices. Get out of activities with no future.  Stop buying things that offer no value in a future of less.  Many of these lifestyles and products will be like stranded assets that represent significant investment in something that fails to produce.  Start now ridding your lifeboat of dead wood.  Clean and organize your life around the trend inversion.  This will make room for important activities and things needed.  It will free up time and resources for what is important.

What you want to do is get ahead of the curve so to speak.  Here “head of the curve” is get ahead of societies decline of affluence.  Make solid purchases of value with goods.  Accumulate knowledge that will matter on this inversion to less affluence.  This means an altered vision of saving.  Saving in a financial and monetary sense must be adapted.  Instead of thinking of retirement think of saving for a societal retirement party.  Money and things of monetary value like precious metals are there to address the world that will continue.  There may be a debt jubilee but it won’t be how we expect it to be.  I would not call it a jubilee but instead a wake.  In the meantime, the world will attempt to continue as it has this means a strategic effort with tactical focus.  You will still have bills to pay and will need paper wealth.  Yet, increasingly real value will be recognized with proper physical assets.  At some point 401Ks will have much lower value.  Being able to feed and keep your home warm much more important.

I would also advise being a consumer as needed to outfit your lifeboat.  I am green and I feel a guilt of sorts by buying.  Yet, I realized the age of consumerism is quickly closing so now is the time to buy and buy right.  This guilt is the realization just how trapped I am in affluence.  Consumerism harms nature and this bothers me when I buy.  My higher power includes nature. Our mother and our earth should be included in a spirituality. 

REAL Green is realistic, relative, and accepting.  The trend of civilization is inverting but society is continuing as before the inversion so you must be flexible in mind and actions.   You are trapped in a global civilization of path dependencies, carbon energy, carbon products, and the resulting waste streams.   You must consider this your ecosystem.  Realistically adapt to the decline of this self-organizing process.  Relatively change per the trend inversion.  Accept this destructive change as the new reality.  Awareness is the essential component of an awakening.  An awakening is necessary for transformation.  There is no transcendence.  The trap is complete for all but those transformed are better prepared for what is ahead.

I often speak of spiritual permaculture.  What I mean by this is an adapted spirituality for this trend inversion.  Your spiritualism adapted for the metaphysical realities of this trend inversion of the human system can be the one bright spot for constructive change where growth is possible.  Spiritual affluence is the goal of spiritual permaculture of renewal and enrichment.  A mystical awareness of life as a journey in the eternal now adapts our linear lives of destination.  An adapted spiritualism in this trend inversion is about a life boat and a journey.  It is a journey of enlightenment with a life of adaptation.

Spiritual permaculture is the hospice of this trend inversion.  It is the acceptance of decline which is a death of sorts.  When you understand what decline means systematically then you will accept that in your life you will experience material Loss.  Abandonment, dysfunction, and irrational will permeate life where in the past it was progress.  Keep in mind even in chaos there is a pattern so what this REAL Green hospice is about is strengthening your spiritual armor for the loss process.  This means embracing the reality and the nature of abandonment, dysfunction, and the irrational.  The proper way to address this is decentralization, decoupling, and dematerialization.  Lower your exposure to the coming failures of progress.

Spiritually this is about accepting fear but not fearing fear.  This is grace not a refuge.  Grace is about allowing your heat to beat on its own.   Living this time of trend inversion is living in a new reality of decline and loss with acceptance.  Acceptance is the prerequisite of humility.  Humility is connecting with the sacred.  We can’t know the truth but we can get closer to it.  In this respect then embracing decline is a truth pathway.

“The consequences of trend inflexion are readily summarized. On an ex-inflation basis, economic output will deteriorate, whilst the real costs of necessities will carry on rising, even if there are some retreats from the severe spikes experienced in recent times.  The resulting process of affordability compression will drive contraction in discretionary (non-essential) activities. It will also undermine financial flows from households to the corporate and financial sectors. We can anticipate a rolling process of investment contraction, business failures, defaults and rising unemployment.”

This is an excellent basic explanation for the global economy ahead.  Keep in mind energy and economy are inextricably linked.  Energy resources can’t be booked as reserves unless an economy can take energy resources and create a surplus.  Energy sources that can’t create a surplus will not support an economy.  This reality is true with technology too since we are in the age of the technocratic globalism that often talks about technological innovation.  This innovation is bumping up to diminishing returns of effectiveness but more worryingly is now creating more problems than it solves.  Technology can’t endlessly offer substitution for the basics of energy and a properly functioning economy.  In fact, technology is what got us into this predicament.

What got us to this point is a departure from proper scale which has destroyed the human balance with the planet and its life system.  Without proper balance with the greater ecosystem there is no renewal or enrichment.  Without these necessary ingredients human civilization is a sink sucking in energy and resources and converting them into middens of waste.  Eventually necessary resources are consumed and waste streams overwhelm the local environment.  Eventually too there is no place to migrate to for virgin resources.  This is where we are at now.  A global world at the end of the road.

I personally think it is man in the more primitive state of seminomadic hunter gatherer with primitive agriculture that is humans at their optimum.  Here optimum is in a state of proper scale and balance.  What good is all our knowledge and tech when it will kill us?  I will also say since we are natural then what man has done is also natural so in a sense, we can’t be judgmental of the destruction we have wrought on the planet and life.  This is somehow what life does as it self-reflects with ever increasing intelligence.  This duality of life that is a factual of entropy and non-entropy is somehow an expression.  Grace is when we stop reflecting on this and just live.

“Transition to renewables is not just possible, but imperative. The economy, no less than the environment, is at grave and worsening risk unless this happens. Sustainability is a worthy goal, and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be an attainable one.  Where this logic breaks down is at the point at which transition is spun, not as sustainability, but as “sustainable growth”…renewables cannot match the energy density of oil, gas and coal. As a result, a transition to renewables will truncate the process of diffusion which is central to the dissipative landfill economic system.  The characteristic of lesser density shows up right across the application of renewables. Despite widespread assurances to the contrary, the processes of renewables generation cannot be transformed by technological advances, because the potential of technology is bounded by the laws of physics.  The potential efficiency of solar energy is determined by the Shockley-Queisser Limit, with Betz’ Law doing the same for wind power, and best practice is already close to these physical maxima. Intermittency is part of the low-density character of renewables, and no advance in technology is going to enable batteries to match the power-to-weight ratio of the humble fuel tank.”

I have been studying energy for years starting with peak oil issues in 2000.  I actually took some classes in college in the mid 80’s on climate change and peak oil long before thy were mainstream.  I have been on blogs arguing deeper points for a decade.  I have dug through the liberal technocratic globalist narrative.  Initially I had some hope for a green machine transition with sustainable growth but that evaporated when reality testing was applied.  The machine will not save us only wisdom will.

I have solar with batteries and I love my system.  I am a green prepper.  Having solar is vital to keep some lights on and your food cold in a grid down situation.  In the meantime while everything works fine I use the system to offset my electricity cost.  In the winter I can run my outdoor wood gasifier with solar.  In the summer I can run my mini-split ac with solar.  I run my 2 refrigerators and 2 freezers with solar all the time.  A prepper must maintain a good store of food for disruptions.  I have 3600 watts of panels and two 48-volt lithium phosphate 10KWH batteries with inverter.  I use transfer switches so I can run the house on grid power and target certain circuits with solar.  This is a hybrid system.  I offset about 1/3 of my electrical usage which helps offset the cost of a $30,000 system.  It does not pay for itself until you consider the prepping qualities. 

This is how society should look at renewables not green new deal of an energy paradigm shift.  All homes should be backed up with renewables in some way either like I have or with communities that have a system.  I know renewables pencil out best in large solar or wind farms attached to the main grid but this does not pencil out after the point where intermittency destabilizes the gid.  These large power farms will be stranded assets in a grid down situation.  In a distributed system of small systems, a grid down situation is when they will show true value.  It is in these situations’ intermittency can be dealt with.

 People with panels on their roofs but tied to the grid will have nothing when the grid goes down.  The application should be like I do with individuals and small communities finding ways to incorporate renewables into a hybrid system where small scale solar and wind can be applied to various applications to offset main grid usage and if there is a grid failure offer lights and cooling for food to a community.  The same principal needs to be applied to space heating with hybrid systems.  Instead, it is being advertised a green machine transition will give us what we have now with renewables.  This is a lie! 

Transition to renewables is vital but here renewables is more than just high tech of solar and wind.  Renewables more broadly are biomass, thermal storage and insulation strategies.  Conservation must be included.  Ideally solar and wind would be applied at a more decoupled local level where intermittency can be embraced.  Lifestyles would become increasing localized.  Energy lifestyles greatly reduced.  The translation is affluence would be greatly reduced.  This is the inconvenient reality of transition that no political entities want to discuss because the public won’t hear it.  The public is being educated that progress will continue but it won’t.  The system is trapped in path dependencies of energy on demand.  Carbon energy is a trap where a system so complex as ours can’t downsize away from carbon.   Yet, carbon energy of fossil fuels is in net energy decline.  This is a predicament and one the individual can adapt to but society never will because it will end society as we know it.

This transition is a stair step because once technology is faced with net energy decline and importantly economic velocity reductions, technology will suffer decline.  Over the last century it has been technology that has been employed to substitute limits of resources.  Technology is approaching diminishing returns where its benefits are being outweighed by its problems.  In fact, technology is an unstoppable destructive force because it can’t be controlled in its effort for more efficiency and power.  There will come a point in transition to more simplicity, localism, and lower energy intensity the economy will not support the type of technologies available today.  This means the transition is a journey to a world of less energy intensity, technological complexity, and economic vigor.

The current narrative of the machine greens is one of sustainable growth.  This is just not going to be the case.  Systematically you can’t expect to use lower energy intensity and expect the economy to grow.  You can’t expect lower energy intensity and lower economic activity to support and expand technological vigor.  The best we can hope for is managed decline.  The worst is cascading decline.   The current policies of the technocratic globalist will lead to cascading decline because centralization is the wrong approach.  The globalist green transition of sustainable growth is a religion for these people.  Science is being politicized and this is being merged with authoritarianism with the goal being a controlled transition where a few stakeholders of elites in politics and business control the masses.  This not honest science it is instead a hijacking.

The transition that is being proposed is too expensive, there are not enough resources, and the technology is not sound.  There are no good storage strategies.  The technological supply line too complex.  The grid too unstable at the complexities needed.  Lifestyles are not going to be adapted properly.  The elites want to continue their moral hazard of private jets and plutocratic lifestyles.  Their chosen group will likewise be rewarded with enhanced lifestyles.  This is basically wealth transfer from the middle class and working poor to a narrow band of elites.  This wealth transfer is being done with the color revolution technics of work identity politics of cancel culture and fake virtue signaling.  This is the same old worn out Marxism of power attainment through lying, stealing and cheating.  

This green “machine” transition does not add up with the science, economically, socially, and politically.  It is a power play by the elites to maintain their power, wealth and privilege.  It is an elite hijacking.  It is also an elite merger where elites across the spectrum are being told join us or we will leave you behind.  This proposed system of the great reset is now in the open.  It is also clear to those that study it what closely.  Its intensions are clear and precise.  These plutocratic elites have finally shown their cards.  They can’t call you a conspiracist anymore if you speak out about what they are doing.

If you see machine green transition for what it is then you see it is a failure on all fronts with the science, economics, politics, and social stability.  This is important because a failure on just one aspect is enough to derail a transition.  When the failure is on all front then you see this is will be a reckless, incompetent, and nefarious effort to transform the world at a time when stability should be pursued.  This stability would be mitigated decline.  Decline of a self-organizing system can’t really be managed proactively it can only be reacted to.  A small number of proactive efforts can be attempted like education and fortification of basic human needs but for the most part it will be reaction to events.  An urban world that will be downsized relatively quickly without the resources in the rural areas to accept so many people will be a bottleneck.  This is honest science and the elites can’t have any of it so they preach a religion of machine green.

Here is the authors conclusion which dovetails with mine:

“Since the same unit of energy cannot be used twice, the question becomes one of what other energy uses are going to be relinquished to make this energy available for transition. We could, in theory, drive less, fly less, consume less and consign less to landfill, but there, is as yet, no acceptance of a need to do any of this.  None of the foregoing should be read as skepticism about the transition to renewables. There are compelling environmental and economic imperatives for committing maximum effort to transition, and there is no reason in principle why sustainability should not be accomplished.  An essential first step might be to drop, or at least water down, claims that transition can provide affordable growth, because this isn’t possible where the concentration of energy inputs is decreasing…At the same time, the real costs of energy-intensive necessities are rising. The net effect is affordability compression. This, as remarked earlier, has two principal consequences. First, the ability of consumers to afford discretionary products and services is in retreat, and cannot be expected to return to growth.  Second, we should be prepared for contraction in the streams of income which flow from households to the corporate and financial sectors. Put colloquially, people will find it ever harder to ‘keep up the payments’ on everything from mortgages and credit to subscriptions and staged-payment purchases.”

Inflection

I am presenting you with several viewpoints of what I consider our current place in the cyclic.  This place is at a point of inflection.  The point of inflection is where a concave turns convex.  In the cyclic of growth and decline this is the point of phase change.  This point of inflection is now characterized by a convergence of diminishing value of technology, energy, economics, and human centralization. 

I am speaking to you the individual.  You are locked into this convergence and inflection because of the macro world you live and depend on.  This macro world of human progress is determined in a systematic self-organization.  This world is now a system characterized by the rigidity of path dependency and a common denominator of carbon.  In other words, the system can only operate as it did, change is not possible.  Nothing at a large scale can happen without carbon-based energy. 

Carbon-based energy is in net energy decline.  This is geologic and economic making it impervious to a continuation of normal.  Obviously, renewables are dead in the water if you have done the deep research.  Their basis is carbon so there is no way to replace carbon with something based on carbon.  A KW is not a KW in this case.  What this means is change is not possible and a continuation of status quo is in the process of winding down.  The status quo can’t wind down because of its path dependencies of expansion.  This is why I call this the inflection.

Deviation is not an option for this self-organizing system.  Deviation means collapse but so does continuation.  This is what civilizations do and always have done once there expansion grinds to a halt.  The difference now is this is a global civilization.  It is empire of a global elite.  These global elites have no interest in adapting to phase change.  They are engaged in the moral hazard of private enhancement at the expense of the public’s welfare.  They are doubling down on policies of centralization that benefit them at the expanse of the masses.  Decentralization is what is required.  Deconstruction, dematerialization, and decoupling are the right polices now for inflection.  The developing systematic forces demand this so what you will have is a point where multiple aspects of human and planetary systems shift to a new state.

The time frame is uncertain and really cannot be known.  What can be known and is plain as day to those honest and awakened is the trend.  This may occur over a longer time period.  Sudden collapse is of course increasingly possible.  I would say this decline will be both short term and long term.  The unfolding will be macro and micro.  What we are seeing is planetary with ecosystems and systems being human forced.  There is the decline of the global civilization influence by the planetary system but also declining from within with economic, Social and political issues.  It is this forcing, converging, and negative reinforcement that makes the coming shift so dramatic.  Compression and overshoot are building meaning thresholds are being tested and increasingly crossed.  

How you approach this convergence and inflection is critical.  A diminishing point of value is when decline sets in to your life’s efforts.  Value here can be defined physically with normal metrics of prosperity and comfort.  On the metaphysical level it is truth and meaning.  Increasingly you will feel poorer but also a spiritual meaninglessness of it all.  This spirtuality is not your religion.  I am pointing to the abstract of meaning you feel when you reflect on life.  You may turn to religion to fill this but this is a reaction to a underlying reality in flux. 

This inflection of value is directly related to macro conditions.  You are a cog in the machine so you have no choice but to be part of this process.  The critical element here for you the individual, family, and small community is because this is a type of ecosystem then within this process value growth is possible.  The reason for this is when a complex system declines niches are freed up.  If you accept decline and embrace its forces then you will by nature make better decisions based on the system’s trend.

Spiritual growth is in a different dimension from the physical but they are by no means unrelated.  They revolve around each other and it is the proper scale that leads to the balance of the two.  In times of growth and decline scale and balance are altered.  Spirituality is set to go through an inflection to a growing of value from a period where it was all but destroyed by the religion of science commonly called scientism.  Dramatic materialistic living resulting from scientism has reduced spirituality to novelty.  All religions have been infected by scientism.  Religion today is a business and must operate as organizations.  Organization must follow the status quo of rule of law and best practices.  These have been infected with corruption so all religions are subject to this corruption.

In this case, I speak of spirituality in its raw form divorced from man’s intelligence.  This spirituality that permeates all and derived from the sacred will be the inverse to our physical decline.  Materialism will decline and with it an opening up of spirituality will result.  When you uncover our naked souls by removing all the distractions we burden ourselves with, spirituality naturally fills the void.  Science became supreme in the age of globalism.  It became a religion and prosperity the sacrament.  In doing so a great distortion of truth and meaning occurred.  Now that science’s value declines spirituality will fill in the vacuum.  Truth and meaning will result to those who are awakened then transformed.

This value growth of you the individual within overall decline does not mean necessarily more value.  Instead, this value growth within decline points to less decline relatively.  You will be on the right track and suffer less.  Suffering will be the theme of this coming bottleneck.  It is the acceptance of this budding bottleneck and the embrace of proper lifestyle for decline that can mitigate the worst of what is ahead.  Yet, there are no refuges from suffering even for those who are enlightened and engaged.  This is a global event but with some places and people experiencing less suffering.  The science is available to know where the worst could happen.  We also know there are things we are unable to know.  Yet, there are unknown unknowns that are unique to this time in the history of the planet that is a global human population in overshoot of both consumption and population.

I recommend you embrace decline and in doing so you avoid fighting the systematic current of decline that is the phase change of the cyclic.  This is a retreat in force or a flexible retreat.  Pick your battles and invest wisely.  Wisdom of what value to embrace and what to avoid is critical.  Spiritually, avoid fearing fear.   This is the debilitating effects of anxiety and paralysis in the face of fear.  You will experience this regardless but being aware of this condition immediately relieves some of the negative effects.  Loss from decline is a fearful experience.  There is no sugar coating this to sanitize the consequences for all.  If you accept that loss is ahead then there is no switching of efforts which involves changing course.  Instead, you are going with the flow and the flow will support you by allowing better decisions.  Your efforts to slow the decline will be more natural.

REAL Green is a focus on green prepping.  It is a spirituality of proper wisdom and involves the science of being prepared.  The science focuses on homesteading and permaculture.  The spirituality focuses on acceptance and humility for a process of decline that is planetary and within our global civilization.  This is the science and spirituality of lifeboats and hospices.  A monastery of art and literature is used to assemble needed knowhow and wisdom for the journey.  This is a journey.  Death is the destination but a good death.

REAL Green seeks localism with community.  Since the world is delocalized and increasingly urbanized REAL Green is for just a few.   Despite this handicap of delocalization, you should know a best practice that is the proper way to embrace decline even if you are trapped.   This delocalization is physical but also spiritual.  Modern life has isolated people from family and friends.  Local community has been all but destroyed as it once was.  We have lost meaning and no longer have comfort in a feeling that we are following the truth.  Even the most devout are constantly bombarded with alternatives to what gives them meaning.  This is the nature of the out of control progress of science and development that is increasingly creating more problems than are being solved.  Science and materialism are now the problem instead of the tools to solve problems.

If you want to be a leader and if you have the right stuff then REAL Green is a path forward.  You will need resources.  You will need education.  Most of all you will need time.  Since we are at or near the non-liner of when this inflection shifts occurs, time is speeding up.  The point of diminishing value is now entering negative value of problem solving being the problem.  This speeding up is as much about compression as tempo.  This compression is the approach to a nonlinear increase at which point the shift occurs.  Once shifted your environment will be beyond normal efforts to adapt.  It will then be characterized by the luck of being in the right place at the right time.  This is the nature of a bottleneck.  Proper orientation now before the shift happens is critical.  It appears there is still time to adapt.  Delocalization has dispersed risk to all locals but the same delocalization that is so destructive also has benefits.   of Globalization means there are still lots of resources available to rebuild localism.

Positioning now while you still can is a keystone first step.  Find the right place but also change your lifestyle to reflect this process.  Update your spiritualism of a higher power and meaning with the paradigm of destructive change.  This message is for leadership and for those with the right stuff.  It is no use for the 90% who do not understand or don’t have the right stuff.  For the people who do not understand or are trapped in circumstances, their hopes are for a leader among them to guide and assist.  This longing for a real leader will be more pronounced as difficult times deepen.   How dramatic but also the duration is a key element of this time of inflection.  It is the interaction of degree and duration that can be managed in some ways to make things less bad.  A longer duration can be mitigated with tools lowering degree.  A forceful degree can be made shorter so a bounce back is possible.  First acceptance and humility are required to begin to engage these forces of decline.  This is where spirituality takes front and center.

Please review the referenced works for viewpoints on decline.

 Carl Schmitt one said “A society built exclusively on progressive technology would thus be nothing but revolutionary; but it would soon destroy itself and its technology.”

“Inflection point.  In differential calculus and differential geometry, an inflection point, point of inflection, flex, or inflection is a point on a smooth plane curve at which the curvature changes sign. In particular, in the case of the graph of a function, it is a point where the function changes from being concave to convex, or vice versa. Wikipedia

“This theoretical essay argues that the development of so-called ‘smart innovations’ is based on the monotonous application of seven standardized principles: electrification, digitalization, webification, datafication, personalization, actuation, and marketization. When a new smart innovation appears, what has typically occurred was the implementation of these principles to an object or process that, until that moment, had managed to remain unscathed by the smart innovation monoculture. As reactions to this dominant logic, ten major critical arguments against smart innovations have emerged in the academic literature: smart innovations are considered to be superseding, unhealthy, subordinating, exploitative, manipulative, addictive, fragile, colonial, labyrinthine, and both ecologically and socially unsustainable.”

Ferreira, António. “Seven Principles and Ten Criticisms: Towards a Charter for the Analysis, Transformation and Contestation of Smart Innovations.” Sustainability 14.19 (2022): 12713.

“The Seven Immutable Principles of Smartness”

“electrification, digitalization, webification, datafication, personalization, actuation, and marketization”

“The implementation of smart innovations, whatever they might be, depends on a set of sequential principles. These principles can be considered the DNA of smartness, as currently understood in the dominant technological, academic, and political circles.”

“The first principle is electrification: the conversion of things (whatever they might be; for example, toothbrushes, watches, kitchen appliances, motorized vehicles, factory machines, governance practices, public participation processes, etc.) that were hitherto powered by physical or intellectual labor, fossil fuels, or any other form of energy into things powered by electricity.”

“Electrification is a basic prerequisite for the second principle to be implemented, that of digitalization. In contrast to analogue technologies (such as old radios, but also mercury thermometers), smart technologies (e.g., 5G mobile phones) convert and provide information through the use of computational units. This means that the sound produced by an old radio is a direct acoustic manifestation of the radio waves received by the radio device, similarly to how the level of mercury inside a thermometer is determined by the extent to which the mercury expands or contracts inside its glass tube as the temperature varies. This also means that while some analogue technologies depend on electricity to work (e.g., old radios), some of these technologies are independent from any electricity source (e.g., mercury thermometers). Conversely, smart technologies always need electric power to work because they rely on digital processors to compute data. For example, the sound produced by a smart phone is the result of a networked computing process, which converts acoustic waves into quantified data streams that have to be analyzed by the smart phone processor so that the data can be converted back into sound. All these computational procedures consume electric energy and require electric components to be performed.”

“The third principle of smart technologies is webification. This can be defined as the process of incrementally creating the IoT, that is, a pervasive system capable of emitting and receiving in real time multiple streams of data from multiple interconnected devices, preferably using wireless connections. Without webification, the fourth principle, that of datafication, cannot be implemented.”

“With datafication, it is meant that when a given technology is used, the technology will not only produce and/or use digital data so that it can work in the way it is supposed to, but it will also have the means to store such data. There are two options for storing data: in the device itself (which grants limited possibilities for data use and is therefore discouraged) and in centralized data centers (that is, in the memory of super computers) where the data of multiple devices and from multiple users is compounded into an increasingly larger dataset. This grants a much higher number of possibilities for data usage and exploitation than when the data is exclusively stored in each device, and in particular when multiple datasets are combined into big datasets. Questions such as who did what, when, how, with whom, and at what time are becoming absolutely key for the organization of these databases. This takes us to the next principle: personalization.”

“By personalization, it is meant that smart technologies tend to work only after the user provides a personalized username and password or—in more advanced cases—after the identity of the user is determined through some biometric reading. After the identity of the user has been identified, the technology will produce data that will include a reference to inform who the user was when the data was produced. The large datasets that are typically compiled as a result of smart technology utilization can be, and are typically, applied to build a very precise profile for each user. With this, individuals are converted into data streams in the same way that smart technologies are also converted into data streams. Another feature of personalization is that each smart technology adapts itself to meet the needs and aspirations of each user—sometimes with the (either explicit or implicit) goal of changing his or her perceptions, thoughts, and behaviors. This takes us to the next principle: that of actuation.”

“Smart technologies follow the principle of actuation to different degrees. At the highest degrees, actuation is achieved through complete automation or quasi-automation of smart technologies. When full automation is deployed, these technologies become active in either forcing selected individuals to behave in given ways, or in replacing their work and/or presence completely. For example, consider a fully automated vehicle that will compulsorily replace the human driver, as there will neither be driving controls inside the cabin nor the option to turn off the automated driving functions. At the lowest degrees, actuation is achieved by means of nudging selected users to perceive certain things instead of others, or to behave in given ways.”

“The last of the seven principles is marketization. With marketization, it is meant that opportunities for capitalizing on smart technologies are actively explored at all times. Marketization can be achieved through selling, buying, and exploring both smart tech devices and data-related market opportunities; by means of delivering higher levels of personalization so that individuals become willing or are forced to pay for it; or by means of putting actuation at the service of profitable ends that serve the interests of individuals, organizations, or lobbies that can pay for such services—just to mention some obvious possibilities.”

https://www.korowiczhumansystems.com/publications

“Deepening Vulnerability: As the human systems that enable societal functioning (the grid, supply chains, the financial system, telecommunications, behavioral coordination) become ever more globalised, complex, inter-dependent and high-speed, our vulnerability to largescale systemic failure is increasing. In particular modern societies – including Western Europe, Japan and the United States – could rapidly transition from the familiar functioning to crises undermining food security, access to water, sanitation, the function of the economy, public health, communications, emergency services, public order and governance. This transition period may last from weeks to a few years, depending on conditions. The initial trigger could be a major pandemic, a financial system collapse, a cyber-attack on critical infrastructure, a natural disaster, a protracted environmental catastrophe, a socio-political crisis, or some confluence of stresses and shocks. If the initial affected region or network is of sufficient scale, is critically connected, and preparedness is weak, recovery may become impossible and the impacted region/network may itself become a source of destabilizing global contagion. Such a breakdown would mean reliance on localised resources without most of the infrastructures and capacities currently taken for granted. There could be diverse outcomes – depending on natural, social and physical capital, the stresses from adjacent regions, and levels of prior preparedness.”

“the relationship between underlying economic output and the use of energy is linear.”

“de-coupling” the economy from the use of energy cannot happen.”

“if we consume less energy, the economy gets smaller”

“energy-intensive, non-essential economic activities will contract rapidly”

“It should never be forgotten – though it almost routinely is – that the potential capabilities of technology are limited by the laws of physics.  These are important points, because it’s all too easy to assume that the economy can transition, seamlessly, from fossil fuels to renewables. This mistaken assumption – and it’s no more than that – informs vast swathes of corporate, financial and government planning.”

“By 2040, global prosperity is projected to be 16% lower than it was in 2021.”

“If population numbers continue to rise, albeit at historically low rates, prosperity per capita could decrease by 27% between 2021 and 2040.  At no point since 1776 – not even during the Great Depression between the wars, which caused severe hardship, but was temporary – have we ever had to confront anything even remotely comparable.”

“None of this, of course, is yet incorporated into the futurity currently priced by the markets. But the unfolding deterioration in underlying economic conditions can be expected to compress the gap between financial expectation and material economic reality.”

“A best estimate is that total financial exposure stands at about 575% of World GDP, but 925% of global prosperity.  Perhaps the single most disturbing aspect of worsening imbalances is the extent of leverage embodied in the economy and the financial system.  As we have seen, a projected decrease of 8% in energy supply between now and 2040 produces a corresponding decrease in real global economic output. But rises in ECoEs leverage this into a 16% fall in aggregate prosperity.”

“This implies that prosperity per capita will be about 27% lower in 2040 than it was in 2021. But the cost of energy-intensive necessities will carry on rising markedly, in response to increases in ECoE. This is illustrated in Fig. 4C. This implies a near-50% fall in the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services, even though top-line economic output is only projected to fall by 8%.”

“When we consider, for example, the affordability of mortgage payments, it’s clear that this affordability must be related, not to total household incomes, but to household disposable incomes, and much the same applies at macroeconomic level.  This is why, where the business and broader economic outlook is concerned, we have entered an affordability crisis. This has two implications.  First, and most obviously, consumers whose disposable resources are being compressed between falling incomes and the rising costs of necessities experience a leveraged reduction in what they can afford to spend on discretionary purchases.  Second, it becomes ever harder for households to sustain payments on everything from secured and unsecured credit to subscriptions and staged-payment purchases.”

“the outlook is for RRCI to trend downwards, though remaining above officially-acknowledged rates of broad inflation. Though the costs of essentials will continue to rise, we should anticipate severe and worsening deflation across the discretionary and ‘stream-of-income’ sectors of the economy.”

“there is no way for the quantity of goods and services produced to grow sufficiently to match the promises that the financial system has made. This is the real bottleneck that the world economy reaches.”

“affordability obstacles. The physics of the situation somehow causes the wages and wealth to be increasingly concentrated among the top 10% or 1%. Lower-paid individuals are increasingly left out. While goods are still produced, ever-fewer workers can afford more than basic necessities. Such a situation makes for unhappy workers.  World energy consumption per capita hit a peak in 2018”

“There is no possibility of ever transitioning to a system that operates only on intermittent electricity with the population that Europe has today, or that the world has today. Wind turbines and solar panels are built and maintained using fossil fuel energy. Transmission lines cannot be maintained using intermittent electricity alone.”

“families can move in together, fewer buildings in total will need to be heated. Cooking can perhaps be done for larger groups at a time, saving on fuel.”

“If families can home-school their children, this saves both the energy for transportation to school and the energy for heating the school. If families can keep younger children at home, instead of sending them to daycare, this saves energy, as well.”

“A major issue that I do not point out directly in this presentation is the high energy cost of supporting the elderly in the lifestyles to which they have become accustomed. One issue is the huge amount and cost of healthcare. Another is the cost of separate residences. These costs can be reduced if the elderly can be persuaded to move in with family members, as was done in the past. Pension programs worldwide are running into financial difficulty now, with interest rates rising. Countries with large elderly populations are likely to be especially affected.”

“In the previous chapter, it was posited that the declines of civilizations are cyclic and that they have more to do with the shifts of the ages (when the spirit of an age shifts) than with factors related to resource declines, environmental degradation, or climate change, although all those factors would play a significant role too.”

“On a personal level, humanity’s turning point could be understood as a return to Self. In Western terms, this would refer to the Jungian concept of Self (it’s not the ego-self), meaning an inward turning towards one’s own authentic personal center, in order to truly know thyself. (This was explored in some detail in an article titled The Keys to Conscious Co-Creation).  On a social and cultural level, a return to cultural traditions and community values could be expected to become more important again, while spirituality and religion are likely to make a comeback too.”

“From a metaphysical perspective, the energies of centralization and decentralization ‘flow’ in opposite directions to each other, but one is usually stronger than the other. Centralization is clearly still the current dominant directional energy flow.” 

“One type of logic, which would be to change direction and to decentralize, would then find itself contrary to a logic that would prefer to keep on centralizing. It’s worth reflecting on the fact that the universe itself ‘orders’ this scenario by way of expansion energetically turning into contraction, while duality is in a state of amplification at the same time.”

“An Age of Centralization  The world today is largely dominated by international perspectives due to the endurance of globalization. This has, over time, resulted in a high level of centralization; probably the highest achieved in history. As a result, it could be said that the entire globe today, more or less, constitutes an empire. This modern global empire has come about as a result of long-term globalization and globalism.”

“In the last chapter, it was mentioned that empires would tend to want to preserve their centralized format even when they are facing constraints to further expansion. Empires operate according to centralized mindsets that are set on expansionism based on a sense of manifest destiny. An empire state of mind is a state of consciousness that has its own drive. Empires typically do not change course, because they are set on a course.”

“Centralized thinking tends towards standardized thinking. That happens due to central demands for uniform compliance with standardized methods, because simplification is needed for managing everything from within a center out to its peripheries.  For the sake of simplification, centralization doesn’t want to be concerned with too many details. One can see then how centralized thinking has its own logic; thinking from the perspective of centralizing everything in order to manage and control everything better from a central position. Centralized thinking naturally leads to the logic and the logistics of centralization.”

“When centralized and standardized thinking are constantly emitted and promoted from within a center outwards to its entire sphere of influence, more or less across-the-board, uniform thinking could eventually result. Thinking for simplification; thinking for standardization and thinking for uniformity could become the norm. That could mean a loss of differentiation, a loss of inspiration and a loss of creativity, not to mention a decline in free thinking. Under such soul-stifling conditions, there would hardly seem to be any need for creative or inspired thought.”

“On the other hand, the greatest advantage of a decentralized system is that it is much more resilient overall. When one part of it fails, other parts can continue more or less unhindered. In a centralized system, if one part fails, it can destabilize the entire system.  For a system to be properly decentralized, it would need to be differentiated, decoupled, and diversified. It would also require innovative and creative thinking with the freedom of implementing innovative solutions independently and locally.  Most nations are still locked into a variety of international mechanisms that make it very difficult for them to take decentralized approaches in the face of global crises.”

“The implication, in a nutshell, is that for as long as the world remains so comprehensively globalized, truly decentralized solutions are, for the moment, somewhat limited. It is mainly possible only on a very small scale, meaning on the individual, family, or community level.  That said, in some quarters, it is believed that globalization has most likely already passed its peak [38], even though there is still a lot of momentum behind it. One could, therefore, suggest that what should be aimed for on a personal level – as far as thinking is concerned – is an urgent re-balancing of thought processes with an orientation towards finding localized solutions in anticipation of a changing paradigm.”

The Cult of Reason

The only honesty I can relate to is doom.  I visit an eclectic variety of sites.  I can’t find anything even remotely on track with reality through the whole process of discovery and conclusion except doom.  I do find within many articles some realization of the inconsistencies of the mainstream narratives.  This is on all sides.  Reality has this power over all persuasions.  There are many articles that will acknowledge the problems and even the problems with proposed solutions.  Yet, this is usually followed by prescriptions for solutions that are further inconsistencies.  Terminal is terminal.  A predicament is a predicament.  How much more to the point can one get?

This can only be likened to a collective terminal illness diagnosis.  Our global civilization is in the initial stage to find a cure that patients inevitably engage in.  There are so many collective illnesses that it bogles the mind.  What is more insidious is these many problems are converging and negatively reinforcing like a hurricane of consequences.  There is really nothing out there that is positive to have optimism in if you are honest.  The browns are set on pushing fossil fuels that are in net energy decline and the greens renewables and electric transport.  Both are a failure.

Fossil fuels have peaked in net energy.  Sure, there are plenty of them still around but the economics of finding and utilizing them are in rapid decline.  You can’t make uneconomic reserves into resources that produce results.  This is especially true with the economic engine in decline.   There are energy reasons for economic decline but also economic reasons.  Fossil fuels are really the only future for the non-future but they have no future.   The economy is a Ponzi scheme of growth on a finite planet so it can’t keep substitution going.  Finite means there is an end.

At a certain point technology won’t be affordable to keep them going.  Economics will fail and there will not be the wherewithal to produce expensive energy and run an economy.  This is a process but one with an inevitable end.  This is so simple but to those bargaining with this “failure is not an option” farce mentality, this simple wisdom is unattainable.

The Greens are the most delusional of our options.  I personally believe in green applications for prepping but as a paradigm of energy transition it is a complete failure.  The left is bat-shit crazy.  I won’t even bring up “woke” and ESG.  These policy forces are a criminal elite hijacking similar to color revolution technics of the CIA and CCP.  I am focusing on energy because it is non-denominational.  Energy is the basis of the food chain. 

Green is a huge detour and will destroy civilization even quicker.  Just witness what is going on in Europe.  Yet again, Europe will be the epicenter of a crushing decline.  This is mainly brought on by the globalist and their leftwing foot soldiers.  This point I make is coming from someone who grew up left of center with a conservative family.  Green hate is especially strong for people like me considered a traitor.

I am not going to go into the mechanics of failure.  I have multiple posts on conclusions and a road maps to the data.  There is just too much to discuss.  I am not a writer I am just an old guy dispensing wisdom.  I walk my talk as best I can.  I am a generalist and this is what is needed to understand the macro predicament of everything.  Specialization is the problem when it comes to wisdom.  I read the specialist but not as a specialist.  I make a round trip through all the data.  Really it takes a systematic approach as a generalist to see there is no hope for anything but decline and failure.

Then there is the majority of the population that is oblivious.  I do not say this in judgment.  I say this as someone who knows many of these people.  Many are not capable of critical thought because of age and or education.  Many are struggling just to survive.  I am talking about the rich too because increasingly even the rich will struggle to maintain their precarious lives.  I am most upset with the leadership these days who are exploiting the most vulnerable.  Tactics are being used to harness the masses for nefarious ends.  A civilizational civil war is now a reality.

Eventually, just like the individual, the terminal illness wins.  What is different with the collective is palliative efforts could make the coming decline less severe and more predictable.  I firmly believe you have to choose the least bad now at the level of politics.  This is the populist nationalist.  At least they are realizing the administrative state is now weaponized for the benefit of the elite.  Civilizations always end this way because power corrupts. 

The left is hell bent on their ends by any means.  This is Marxism and Marxism always fails.  It fails because power never usurps the truth except for a short time.  We are now in that period of that “short time”.  Things have speeded up so dramatically I suspect months are left for these criminals.  Eventually they will go the course of the Jacobin’s cult of reason and Reign of Terror.  In a complex global society this damage wrought will be incalculable.

Unfortunately, this damage will be done and the populist nationalist really don’t have the solutions either.  I do believe they offer a less bad approach.  Decentralization is critical now.  Globalism must be reversed with some management.  The globalist technocrats and their weaponized administrative state must be eliminated from leadership.  This means the elites must be stopped.  It is only the populist nationalist that can do this.

This does not leave a solution though.  This just leaves a better bad or less bad.  This blog is dedicated to green prepping of those individuals who can.  I don’t have anything to offer to those who don’t have what it takes.  I am too honest to tell you stories.  I will tell those who have the wherewithal that very few of you will succeed very long.  This mentality I speak of is more like the movie “Platoon” near the end when the commander calls in a strike on his own position because he is being overrun.  The logic behind this is at least his people are more or less dug-in.

The wisdom I give you now is to be honest and follows the truth.  If you can, get out of denial.  I am not going to judge those who can’t are won’t for the thousands of reasons for inaction.  Life will deal with you.  Life is going to deal with me too.  Even though I live a wisdom of insecurity I will still face the gauntlet.  What the wisdom of insecurity does though is gets you out of fearing fear.  You stop being tensed up with fear and start living with it.  The wisdom of insecurity is not even a state it is only a state of mind.  I reflect on it when I am tensing up in fear.  That’s all it is and that is acceptance.

This is why I preach about Hospices along with lifeboats.  If you are dying a terminal illness the best way to die is either oblivious or in acceptance.  Those who know what is going on need acceptance.  Those who are oblivious just don’t understand which is a default acceptance.  The worst is those who live in lies and self-deception.  This is hell on earth.

I am going to end this talk because I have said my peace.  I have given nothing new to enlighten you with.  I am just talking to you like a father talking to his sick child.  I am talking to myself too.  This is cathartic.  If there is one overriding message, I would say find community and especially find family.  This has always been where human strength is.

I am not posting much anymore because I have defined my doom over the last few years.  We are here now in that doom.  This is it.  This is the end time.  I don’t know what is ahead but this is it.  I will say this, the truth offers salvation to this predicament.  Embrace the truth which means a spirituality.  It does not mean rejecting science but instead a balancing of the two.  Good luck my friends, the few of you that read my rants.

Parallel

The theory of parallel needs priming with these reads:

Mixing metaphysical with the physical trends of lower affluence.

System thought primer:

https://389781d4-2000-4800-8ff2-c13e64a6aa0c.filesusr.com/ugd/94fdd9_d0ee5f5e0c264527ba423ad920a8bd5c.pdf?index=true

The climate hysteria of renewable fantasies of the left.

Net energy decline which is both geologic and economic:

I call my theory of saving the world parallel.  This is a theory of what if anything could be done to lessen the difficulties of adjusting to the end of globalism.  If you feel globalism will power through its problems with substitution and knowledge than this discussion is a waste of time.  If you feel uneasy about what is going on this discussion is worth a read. 

This global system has generated enormous wealth.  This civilization is now locked into the effects of this wealth production such that a transition to an alternative will be painful.  A look at how this winding down of an unsustainable system could be addressed is worthwhile. 

There are no plans I can find to deal with decline by declining.  We are stumbling into a system breakdown that has no example in history.  Civilizational collapse is well understood with historical accounts but no previous examples compare in size and extent.  The interconnectedness and the complete coverage of the entire planet is unique.

Months are now equivalent to years in this process.  Resources and production of goods and services should not be wasted at this late stage of globalism.  It should be a critical effort to invest the remaining resources and production in an alternative system. 

This theory of parallel is useful to understand why the global system can’t change.  The reason I call it a theory is this system can’t imagine its end, so when I discuss how to end it less painfully the prescriptions are merely theorizing.  Yet, this theorizing offers actionable advice to the grassroots where change is possible. 

The condition of civilization now is a reflection of complex ecosystem at their climax.  Nature offers a blueprint for such conditions.  Our civilization views itself as exceptional because of knowledge and tech yet, our system is just a subset of the greater ecosystem that governs all life including ours.  Unless we reflect on nature and not our exceptionalism we are barreling into a collapse.

Parallel theory would be the construction of a global lifeboat while globalism is still full of vigor.  Evidence of globalism’s decline is apparent everywhere with physical infrastructure.  The decline is evident with the abstract with systems and networks.  A subterfuge is created with the amount of wealth still produced.  Technology is deceptive too with numerous advances but with less and less real breakthrough technologies.

What is apparent is the wrong wealth is being produced.  Production is focused on a life globalism has created that is clearly going to end because of limits to growth.  A trend to more tech and efficiency is likewise a dangerous path dependency.  With each new advance older and more stable technology gives way to new tech that is more potent and efficient but less stable. 

A technological diminishing return is apparent now.   In many cases more problems are created than solved.  We are close to the point where problems outweigh solutions.  This is the nature of technology and efficiency.  There are tradeoffs with sustainability and technological advances.  Efficiency and performance without reflection of limits and benefits is a dangerous trend.  The results are truly revolutionary in that creative destruction of technology can damage the fabric of civilization like a hidden cancer. 

The theory of parallel is a crisis plan to address the coming end to globalism.  This plan seeks to use globalism to leave it.  If undertaken it means the end of globalism.  We can’t transition to more resilience and sustainability without growth.  Cities must depopulation into the rural areas.  The current 80/20 population mix of urban to rural means there is not enough infrastructure for this.  Globalism is the only way to build up the lifeboats of permaculture with farms and small towns.

The current trend of global administrative states and controlling interests is smart urbanism.  This is the great reset of the World Economic Forum.  There are over 2000 billionaires that are the controlling interests influencing a self-organizing system nobody has real control over.   Their plans center on controlled urban populations. 

The result is centralization with increased efficiency but the tradeoff is greater instability not less.  It is centralization and efficiency that are becoming unaffordable.  Efficiency is creating brittle resilience.  Centralization is creating cities that can’t survive shocks.  Modern cities are a mirror of systematic overextension.  This is overshoot and nature treats overshoot the same regardless of species.

This futurist program of the great reset is resulting in the transhumanism of tech that prefers automation.  The dehumanization of people is resulting from digital interfaces.  This great reset and 4th industrial revolution is a technocratic development since the 1970s that has become reality because of technological advances and a global civilization. 

This was once conspiracy but currently the global controlling interests are now in the open with their plans.  The UN is part of this with its sustainable development agenda.   Once sustainable areas of the world are now locked into this program and are increasingly unsustainable.  Urban areas are increasingly mega urban expanses covering entire regions.  Support structures for such large urban expanses are increasingly unstable and yet these controlling interests are doubling down on further concentration with more technology not less.

The idea of parallel would be the opposite of the great reset.  This also would be done with informed consent of the world’s populations not deception.  Education is the keystone to the theory of parallel.  It would be similar to advising the global population an asteroid is coming that would do immense damage.

Globalism is ending and it is vital to recreate an alternative.  Yet, the critical idea of parallel is globalism is needed to create the transition mechanism.  Growth will be needed to degrowth.  The only way to do a direction switch is a parallel system.

This theory of a parallel’s primary objective is to show just how hard it would be to change direction at the top with a shared global effort.  In fact, it shows this direction change is for all practical purposes impossible.  This theory does instead offer the grassroot a plan forward with the efforts of localism.  This mirrors nature with ecosystem succession.  Nature offers niches to species when the complex system breaks down.  You can be one of those locals that adapts but time is short and you will need to grow to degrowth.

The first effort of the theory of parallel would involve the deconstruction of the administrative state and the downsizing of the controlling interest’s wealth.   The small but powerful international class of financial and political elites who effectively rule the global system would have to give up much of their wealth.  This would be returned to the public domain.  The mechanism for this is already in place.  It’s called democracy with free and fair markets.  The rule of law would be reinstated and the moral hazard of the controlling elites ended.

The deconstruction of the administrative state means academia and the scientific community too.  The medical industry with all its bloated overhead is also on the chopping block.  It means reducing the number of lawyers and accountants who are rigging this system.  The lobbyist and think tanks likewise need to be greatly reduced.  This is all overhead that ensures elite power and privilege that is the problem.  It is overhead that is parasitic not productive.

The so-called “FIRE” of financial, Insurance, and Real Estate industries must be greatly reduced.  These industries are speculative and do not provide real productivity at the level they represent in the economy.  They discourage localism by placing a value on centralization and concentrated wealth.  These need to be reduced dramatically because it is places of concentration where power corrupts.  These industries are dominated by a few controlling interests with hedge funds and Wallstreet plutocrats.

Discretionary industries like leisure and entertainment must be greatly reduced.  These industries are highly energy consumptive and offer little productive value.  Hollywood needs to be eliminated as a cancer that promotes destructive fantasy and is now a propaganda arm of the globalist. 

Long distance travel and the hospitality industry would be greatly reduced and instead a localized low energy version created.  People of the 18th and 19th centuries actually had more satisfaction with their leisure than we do today.  Theme parks eliminated where they are oversized and out of proportion.  Consumerism with all the strip malls and mega malls need to be reduced by an order of magnitude.

Specialization needs to be adapted.  There needs to be an education system that allows some specialization but the majority of the education needs to be general and having to do with homesteading with food and energy as the focus.  This education must focus on community with local priorities not delocalization and transhumanism of the car culture and digital web. 

Today universities are turning out graduates at great cost who are increasingly producing ideology not productive skills.  The whole college system is a scam of trillions of dollars that have resulted in tenured professors that barely teach.  New shiny buildings are the focus of the large endowments instead of real education.  Sports are pushed with huge budgets and massive stadiums.  Most of the population needs to learn real skills.

We would then be ready to use what is left of globalism to leave it.  Keep in mind the reduction of this administrative state would be painful with loss of economic activity and jobs.  These sectors have grown so large their downsizing would be economically destructive.  It is important to understand they will be eliminated regardless by the process of decline.  Initiating their demise proactively will ensure these centers of parasitic wealth destruction occur first not last.

Net energy decline and economic decay are both part of the current destructive trend of global decline.  If you greatly reduce fossil fuels and the economics of globalism you are looking at economic activity dropping 50% or more.  That is a catastrophic number and will mean loss of an affluence people are not prepared for.  This can’t be done without moving people to the land and in the activity of raising food.  This is the only option for a less bad ride down the decline curve. 

The global economy is heading for dramatic loss without a place to go.  Without globalism the mega cities that dot the globe will be forced to depopulate by systematic decay.  The point of parallel is the recognition of this and the building of an alternative while resources are still available.  Only globalism can produce what is necessary to make this transition away from globalism.  This is the paradox of degrowth.  Growth is needed to degrowth.

It would take a decade to make this transition with complete global focus.  This effort is similar in cost and time to the failed policies of the left who are pushing a delusional NetZero of more of what is destroying the world. 

The Fake social justice of the globalist sustainable development plans is a Marxist lie to coopt populations.  This is a delusional attempt to use inadequate so-called green energy systems to keep operating the current system.  Their social justice warriors want a welfare state to keep people under control so they can force populations to decarbonize.   Yet, the system itself will require more carbon to create the 4th industrial revolution.  The elite have no intention of downsizing their lives.  This is proved by their flying private jets to climate conferences.

The great reset is seeking production that can be automated and people that can be taken out of the productive process thereby increasing efficiencies.  This is the end game of automation.  Technology and efficiency eventually are policies of dehumanization. 

Transhumanism of the 4th industrial revolution is the goal.  These elites and technocrats believe machines will supersede humans at some point.  This is their idea of singularity which is the merger of what is human and machine.  This is a policy of centralization and a mechanical compression of human activity.  This is the blueprint for the global controlling interest being presented as social justice and green.

The polar opposite is required so one can see just how dangerous these globalists are.  You can’t embrace less affluence with a global leadership seeking more.  Instead, existing wealth is needed to downsize into less affluence.  Less affluence is in the cards because of net energy decline and economic decay.  There is a short window to get this done of maybe a decade.

There are two doors ahead.  One door is a delusional attempt to continue what can’t be continued forced into decline.  The other is acceptance of a plan to adapt to something less because the reality of decline is accepted.  Both doors lead to systematic decline.  One door offers a plan based upon the reality of decline and the other is a plan is rejecting decline by doubling down on what created globalism in the first place. 

Both doors once opened will be shut.  There is no going back to what was.  Looking back in the review mirror 2018 appears to be the peak of globalism.  This was the turning point now it is a steady decline down.  Where and when a new stable level is found is unclear.  What is clear is decisions at this point have a critical effect.  This is true at all levels.   The top appears locked into plans that will make decline worse but the bottom is a different story.

The populist movements around the globe actually have a less bad approach.   Their ideas of less regulation and decentralization of power centers along with strong families are the way forward.  They are still delusional with their idea that they can continue the type of affluence of the past which is doomed.  All political systems are locked into this decline process but some are worse than others.  What is the worst is the globalist version.  I recommend if you want to go local then embrace the populists even if you find some of their policies unpalatable.

This theory of a parallel path forward of globalism and localism would have an important underlying compact of the urban and rural.  The back to the landers that will be the pioneers of parallel will be treated with special respect by the urban dwellers.  If there is no compact then those in urban wealth centers will dominate these back to the landers.  If the urbanites realize they will need the back to the landers once globalism dissolves, they will treat them like those who will prepare their way once urban areas are forced to depopulate.  The back to the landers will establish the outpost for the urbanites to emigrate to.

The back to the landers will embrace intermittency and seasonality.  They will embrace localism by disconnecting from the car culture and digital web appropriately.  This means a magnitude of reduction from these influences.  This will facilitate appropriate tech which is no tech and low tech.   These are beefed up with the best of modernism to enhance this appropriate tech.  This is a tech hybridization just as parallel is a hybrid system.

Renewables and batteries can be part of this but with the understanding they will be only used for the transition period of parallel.  The useful life of these systems is short.  They can’t create themselves.  Without fossil fuels and globalism renewable systems will wear out in 10-30 years. 

Renewables will help in the transition to animal, passive energy systems, and biomass.  Simple and manual renewable systems that are decentralized to the town and home level should be the focus not vast solar and wind farms.

Fossil fuels will still be used but made appropriate.  They will serve as back up for when natural disasters hit.  It will be understood these have a shelf life too.  Once globalism is gone so too will adequate fossil fuels.   Fossil fuels these days because of net energy decline are as much economic as geologic.  During the transition of parallel they will be needed but utilized in an appropriate way.  Appropriate here means enhancement not reliance. 

Fossil fuels have to be transitioned away from because of depletion and net energy decline.  Renewables are just fossil fuel extenders.  Renewables can’t power the existing system.   Their current failures in Europe and California spells the end of the last hope for a continuation of globalism.  This is not being admitted to by the elites and the administrative state because there is no alternative.  If you are awakened to this reality then as an individual you will make other arrangements if you value survival.

Parallel focuses on simplicity with volunteerism.  This is the proactive effort to downsize and simplify.  It must be appropriate with low tech or no tech.  It must be about salvage of the old with the new.   Most importantly it is the triage of those aspects of modernism with no future.  It must be grassroots with small community empowerment down to the family level. 

These are the basics.   The wisdom of decline is about a return to the basics with localism.  This theory is so simple it is beyond the reality of most who have been indoctrinated into believing globalism will advance.  This is a massive shift that is also dangerous and this is why the elites are doing everything they can to hide the reality of decline.  Their power is based upon advancing globalism.  The danger is uncontrollable collapse.  There is no guarantee this theory of parallel will work only that it is the better way forward.

In the theory of parallel the top needs to gate keep the security and basic welfare of these rural locals.  This does not mean a welfare state approach it means basic rule of law and free and fair markets kept local and without the digital networks that introduce unneeded complexity.  Most of all the state needs to get out of the way of these locals.  The state will do this because it will realize its end is not far off and it will be these back to the landers that are its lifeboats.

That in a nutshell is parallel and it is for you the individual to make your own arrangements once you understand the best way forward is not possible.  You have a decade to transform your local.  Get started now using globalism to leave it.  Get out of big cities.  If you are part of the administrative state find a new profession or at least do a parallel effort with your administrative state work and a hobby farm.  Small family farms orbiting small communities are the future.  Find one and contribute.

The Green Truth

“Minsky moments are triggered by excessive financial leverage, and in the context of supply chains, leverage means excessive operating leverage: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia… …that’s 100-times leverage – much more than Lehman’s.”

Zoltan Poszar

The green transition is dead.  The war in Ukraine laid that bare.  This is now a multipolar world and it is run on fossil energy.  Globalism is dead too and with it, affluence.

greener

I am not green but I practice greener living.  I am carbon trapped and path dependent in affluence.  I am locked into a destructive civilization.  I do know what is greener after 60 years of life with the last 20 dedicated to what is greener.  It took ten of those years to get on a greener path and the last ten to build a greener homestead and monestary.  This is still not green but it is greener.  I am prepped for a world in a paradigm of decline.  What is greener is more prepped.  What is greener is more spirtual.  Combine these and you have spirtual permaculture. 

I am being a scold.  I am engaging in green pontification but mainly in observation.   I am a hipocrit too.  I find enjoyment in musing.  It is liberating to be a scold.  As a permaculture farmer I am always pissed off because there is not enough time, money and people to do what needs to be done.  Yet, in a few moments in the day there are special feelings like when a quail jumps up in a beautiful glade of grass I helped along.  I am as human as you are.  So really, I am scolding myself.  I am getting old a weak and the thought of being poor and miserable is terrifying.  So, don’t think I am above you.

The left represents green today.  I am speaking to the left.  I would speak another sermon to the right.  The left is pushing dishonest science and their conduct is fraudulent.  They are bribing their constituents with green new deals.  When they are called out on this, they employ subterfuge.  The left’s gaslighting leadership is led by the wealthy.   Affluence is in not green.  Affluent green leadership is now an ideology of the great reset and 4th industrial revolution.  This is said to be green and will save the planet.  Tech is anti-life and anti-community once it suffers diminishing returns so today’s green leadership is the definition of a corrupt anti-green.

Green is ideological these days instead of natural.  The green community now expects you to be woke.  Woke is devisive and focuses on the ideology of victimhood.  Many if not most green academics talk green but don’t live it.  They talk about abstract ideas of green that in most cases are so colored with ideology they aren’t even talking green anymore.  They are in their ivory towers pontificating.  They build shiny new fake green buildings offering green certifications.  They drive and fly to conferences.  This non green activity is supported by the student loan complex that pumps billions of dirty fossil fuel produced wealth into their tenured coffers.  This is just more of the administrative state that must be deconstructed to get greener.

This green conduct is fraudulent.  Greens are pushing anti-science to control and manipulate science for ideological ends.  Science is no longer objective and neutral.  Science today is guided by cancel culture and information management instead of the truth.  Science is corrupted by technology.  Technology is a destructive part of human nature. When tech hits diminishing returns, it is anti-life.  Science is now a green anti-life charade.  You can’t fix environmental destruction with what is destroying it.  If you pretend you are then your conduct is fraudulent.  Embracing Marxism and socialism as a fix for capitalism and markets is just a different shade of the same destructiveness.

Injecting woke ideology of gender, race and sexual orientation into the green conversation only succeeds in dividing the green community from what is greener.  The injection of indigenous culture into the conversation by people engage in fraudulent behavior only corrupts the vital message of the indigenous who are themselves increasingly corrupted by the ideology of sustainable development of the technocrats.  The proper indigenous message is appropriate technology not the current green technology of smart, electric, and centralized.  Appropriate is decentralized with less electric and it is smart enough.

Technology is now a sacrament in science.  Scientist are now the priest of political and economic scientism.  Science is now a religion and it has made green a religion too.  Delocalization and transhumanism of the machine are the new cathedrals of worship.   There is much talk of decoupling, dematerialization, and deindustrialization but it is mostly talk.  Affluence when in diminishing returns can’t decoupled from carbon.  Dematerialization is not possible when more technology and efficiency are the goal to get green.  Talk of deindustrialization is just a wealth transfer exercise.  They talk about ending fossil fuels for electric that is produced by fossil fuels.  This is a circular gaming to stay technological and affluent.

The degrowth community is also corrupted.  Degrowth is the only way forward both active and passive.  The problem with the degrowth community is they can’t sell pain and suffering so they play the noble lie game.  Degrowth is increased poverty.  Steady state economics is when degrowth is over.  The only way you can make it palatable is with spirituality.  The only affluence in degrowth is spirtual affluence.  Spirtual affluence is only found through grace.  This spirituality is of less materialism and more humility.  It is ascetically meek and belittled in Spartan living arrangements.  This is not the type of ideology that can produce a movement so it is lied about to get traction.

What is green?  Green is an oral culture that is made up of small bands of families that relate to each other as a tribe.  They engage in semi-nomadic hunting and gathering that is minimalist and let nature set complexity.  They use appropriate tech of the natural science of food, water, and shelter.  The don’t need to rewild because they are already wild.  They engage in small transient agriculture that is disruptive but disruptive in a good way.  Small scale activities that create localized succession is beneficial to the ecosystem. They engage in social activities that are family orientated and technologically appropriate with minimalism.  They wander just as the bison and the elk do by nature.

Green today can only be the effort at getting more like the semi-nomadic hunter gather and less like a modern green.  I call this greener and it is relative and realistic.  If you want to be green today all you can do is try to be greener.  Don’t be fooled by EVs, Solar, and wind.  Don’t be bribed by people who are corrupt who talk green but live otherwise.  These are the people who fly to climate conferences or practice environmental and social governance from their Wall Street perch.  This is bribery.  ESG is a woke lie to make people feel better as a victim or victimizer.  This is a color revolution tool of control.  There is nothing egalitarian with woke because these are lies and serve the unnatural elite.

Family is greener.  In fact, it is only in and through the family green is possible because family is the basis of human nature.   The modern green is embracing anti-family woke policy.  Decentralization is green.  The modern green embraces the centralized technocratic administrative state that is pushing a controlled population with technology of the machine.  The machine is anti-life.  The administrative state is a product of civilization in diminishing returns.  Socialism is an administrative state.  Capitalism and free and fair markets work at the local level and so does socialism.  They do not scale in any other way and it is only at scale there is balance.  Balance is green.

Urbanism is not green and can’t be made green.  Walkable communities that are urban are only walkable because trucks haul in food and goods.  Water is collected with machines.  Waste is removed with machines in effluents that are not nutrient streams but instead poisons of eutrophication and forever chemicals.  Urbanism allows elitism and elitism leads to the corruption of power.  Corruption and power are not green.  There are no green cities and no green elites.  They can’t even be made greener because of the lies.  They represent the fall of man.

Localism is greener.  Permaculture localism is the act of being greener.  The destructiveness of machines and lifestyles of delocalization are made greener with localism.  Seasonality and intermitency are embraced to get greener.  Localism allows seasonality and intermitency naturally.  If batteries and machines producing electricity are used, they are decentralized and appropriate in scale meaning small applications and simpler.  Fossil fuels are used but minimally.  Robust materials are used sparingly where they have valuable cost benefits.  It is understood that all these wonders no matter how appropriately applied are still supplied by an inappropriate and destructive civilization.

Spiritualism is green when it is humble and accepting.  It is accepted that we got to this place and there are consequences.  There will be a price paid for affluence even for those who were never affluent.  We are humble when we negotiate with affluence so as to employ a wisdom of less.  It is always the case these days less technology and affluent living is greener and more is less.  This is because the world has tipped over. 

It is understood that urbanism means more affluence.  Urbanism brings us knowledge and affluent things so through green wisdom we accept that urbanism is the problem.  Civilization is what got us here to the precipice.  It is time to leave.  Yet because of our lock-in this departure can only be greener.  We can do hard things with less.  We can say no.  We can suffer.  We can’t have our cake and eat it.  We can only live the paradox of dualism which these days is a Catch 22 of predicaments and problems.

In my last post I spoke about the Maya.  They knew the cycles of life.  They knew through cyclic wisdom when civilization needed to be deconstructed.  We are now a linear civilization of globalism.  This is based on a linear ideology of manifest destiny.  It is beset with the incongruous juxtapositions of dualism.  Harmony is not possible with globalism so to be greener it must be deconstructed.  Cities must be depopulated and knowledge centers left to wither.

Yet in some way in the blinding light of the sacred this is truth and the consequences natural.  If we are natural then corruption is a component of life.  What we have become and what we have done is natural in life’s ascending levels of abstraction.  If this is the case then what has happened is as natural as not.  In the cyclic there is a reason life did this. Grace is cyclic so this too will end.  The linear dwells in the nonlinear so it is time to turn back.

If you respect the sacred in a mystic sense then at a certain point you stop the anger and bargaining and accept death because that is what corruption is.  You can’t get new life without the destructive of death.  In this respect then greener in its highest spiritual attainment is the mystic.  Go forth and do greener things in a dirty world.  You can’t help some things but you can change others.  This is the nature of determined free will.  They exist together in the dance of life.  Dance beside the cliff and don’t take things too seriously.  Ignore my scolding.

The Maya Wisdom of Collapse

I urge you to read this pivotal work by my good friend JJ at energyshifts.net.  This writing will be to some abstract and esoteric because it deals with the Mayan calendars and the process of decline the world appears to be in.  Below I highlight a point JJ mentioned on how the Maya embraced decline.  The cyclic shows life rhyming.   The Maya tapped into this insight.  This can help place you in our current process of decline.  All civilizations collpase.  The Maya show how to do it properly.

“Spiritual guide, Carlos Barrios, mentions in his book, The Book of Destiny [33], that the Classic Maya Empire was to an extent allowed to disintegrate consciously by consensus according to what the energies demanded of the people.  The reason was that the Mayas built their cities on intangible energy centers (spiritual energy points) and when the energy shifted they would relocate to new energy centers to create settlements there. Kenneth Johnson stated something similar in one of his books;  The Mayan world did not end when the cities of the Classic Period began to decline. It simply shifted gears; the locus of energy moved from the ancient capitals to new ones – Kenneth Johnston (The Mayan Prophecies: The Renewal of the World 2012 to 2072) [34].  These factors might shed some important light on the mystery of the ‘collapse’ of the Classic Maya because their empire declined over a long period of time [35]. The Mayas would likely have known that the cyclic reordering of their civilization was upon them, and they could, therefore, have oriented themselves accordingly.”

Life shows indications of being cyclic to those who appreciate the metaphysical.  The Maya studied this closely and developed an elaborate calendar system with corresponding mythology to describe these forces of life.  Science is preoccupied with reductionism which is only two dimensional.  The Mayan calendar system adds the third dimension of the metaphysical.  It is only with the combination of science and metaphysics that life can be understood properly.

I call this mix alchemy.  Alchemy is a living transmutation when the proper balance of the physical and metaphysical is achieved.  This is never fixed and always in flux so periods will be of growth and light but also decline and darkness.  This is the wisdom of ages.  You the individual can tap into this most elementary wisdom to guide your life through this time of decline.

In today’s world science is dominant.  Today the spirtual is at its lowest point and we are in the age of darkness.  Science has usurped the sacred.  It is now worshiped as a god.  If you can see this through the eyes of the Maya then you will understand why our world is now set to decline and disintegrate.  Our global empire of transhumanism is locked into this decline but you the individual can decline by consensus as Maya wisdom foretold.

The metaphysical is about connectivity so you the individual must boost your metaphysical appreciation.  Connectivity is what is lacking today.  The dualistic reality of humans who are self-conscious is both physical and metaphysical.  The Maya truly had a sense of the proper balance of these human conditions.  In this time of decline it would do man good to reflect on what the Maya understood.  This would give meaning to why civilizations and especially empires are meant to fail. 

The wisdom of the Maya saw that the cyclic demands decline as it allows growth.  This is the nature of things.  What you have in the wisdom of the Maya is two key points for current reflection, one is consensus of community and the other is respect for what the sacred demands.  This is wisdom in its most elegant form.  Embrace this personally and life will support you.  You will be on the right path.

Korsun Pocket

“The Soviet operation at Korsun did not result in the collapse in the German front that the Soviet command had hoped for, it marked a significant deterioration in the strength available to the German army on that front, especially in heavy weaponry, nearly all of which was lost during the breakout. Through the rest of the war the Red Army would place large German forces in jeopardy, while the Germans were stretched thin and constantly attempting to extract themselves from one crisis to the next.” wiki

I do not speak about saving the world but instead I speak to you the individual about your safety.  I only speak to a few of you about what you can do.  I am honest in saying what I offer is limited to rural people with resources of time, money, and experience.  What I speak of applies to those who can find the right local and have the resources to fortify it. 

Finding the right place is the key and having the resources less important.  This was the case with the Germans that escaped the Korsun pocket.  They got out with their lives.  This will be a war for survival, maybe not with your life but with your way of life. 

This will primarily be a spirtual war because it will be an existential focus on how you find meaning to the disenfranchisements ahead.  Will you negotiate this decline in acceptance or bargain in denial that this time of crisis is not the time of a collapsing world order?

You can manage breakouts from what is going to be one crisis after another from here on out.  The war will be lost meaning every one of us will be poorer soon but you can win the battles in a retreat-in-force.  This is a journey of spirtual meaning which must be properly engaged because it is only with meaning you will find courage and it is courage that will see you through.

I rarely give specific predictions but I will now say boldly hold on to your seat going into 2023.  Nearly all the variables of systematic fracturing are present.  Food, water, and energy are dangerously affected.  With the abstract of the system that supports us we have economic decline, failing logistics, and dysfunctional government.  This will all combine in 2023 to create a firestorm. 

This will be a mosaic with different areas experiencing differing degrees of decline.  This is also not the end of it.  From here on out as was the case for the Wehrmacht on the eastern front in WWII, this time will be one retreat after another in the decline of the basic affluence that has driven average annual growth over the last 2 centuries. 

We are now positioned right on the tipping point heading into an age of decline.  2023 will be looked back on as the pivotal year.  2018 will be looked on as peak prosperity. 

The follow is from David Korowicz’s 2018 paper “Beyond Resilience”.  This is a foreboding look from the vantage point of the peak in 2018 for what is ahead and now apparent for 2023:

“…a failure of a global region or network of high centrality, such as the financial system, or global productivity (from a severe pandemic) can begin to shut down the global flow of goods and services.  In such cases the possibility of irreversible global systemic collapse increases.  In a high speed, Just-in-Time [JIT] economy, these processes can be very rapid.  As societies and economies move along paths that tend toward further economic growth and efficiency, and solve problems by adding further complexity, the vulnerability will increase…Finally, as it is the systems and networks we depend upon that are themselves undermining our dependencies, our trajectory is marked by systemic lock-in. That is, we are locked into crisis-inducing dynamics which we will be largely unable to change.  We should bear in mind that we did not design global civilisation, it self-organised. We do not understand it, except in parts; and we do not control it, except within niches. The more unstable the system becomes, and the more radical the surgery we wish to do to avert a crisis, the more we risk compromising the extant systems we depend upon.”

I would like to review for those of you who have the right stuff something I call green prepping.  There are a few of you out in this big world who will be the pioneers of a new narrative.  This narrative is common to us all from our collective past.  This narrative will be locally unique in character and spirit. 

This narrative will be a hybrid permaculture localism engaged in the simple but robust activity of gathering and harvesting biomass but within a decaying complex world.  You will manage this transformation as you adapt to a life of less affluence.  You will use affluence to leave it in a retreat-in-force.

This is about family, tribe (extended family and friends), and small community.  It is about a spirituality of community embracing our mother which is the land we inhabit.  It will sprout from places where niches of constructive growth will form in a system in destructive change.  You will be scaled properly to manage the destructive change ahead.  You will be the few but not the elite. 

This is not elitism because you will possess a humility of purpose.  Nature will support your humility because this is the way.  You will go forth on life’s behalf having become awakened.

It is now clear this global civilization is locked into a decline.  Green prepping is a hybridization of growth and degrowth for the individual to negotiate this decline.  It is about knowledge and wisdom of old but also new.  There will be attitudes of triage and salvage to sort through what is needed for your lifeboat. 

This is about crisis and sanctuary but not refuge.  Nobody is safe from the bottleneck ahead but there are those safer and you can be one of these brave souls.  You will protect you family and community with meaning because this is a spirtual war.

This narrative is about the physical world but connected to the metaphysical that has been so maligned by science and modernism.  This is about connectivity in a time of drift.  This may sound abstract but when you connect to the land in simple permaculture localism you open up the metaphysical world of meaning. 

This metaphysical world is a fractal expression of life itself that will be expressed through you.  It is here the power of life dwells.  This will be a journey on planet in decline with a civilization self-destructing. 

Your local scale will give you balance.  This will give you vision to know better how to live in a world where meaning is breaking down.  You will return to the basics of family, tribe, and community because history has shown us this is the best way for humans to survive decline.  You will depart the cities for places of refuge.  You will likely be near a city but far enough to manage the urban breakdown that is inevitable.

This narrative has two dimensions.  The first dimension is the metaphysical with spirtual permaculture.  The other dimension is with permaculture prepping.  It is the combination of these that make a homestead and monestary a hardened target to the decline process.  The situation we all are in is a building bottleneck.  This bottleneck is from a complex system breaking down. 

If you get preoccupied trying to understand this you will only get distracted.  If you accept that this is a lock-in to decline then mental energy can be directed to constructive action.  This is all about action because permaculture localism is a tough life as it always was and will now be again.  Learn your local history because what was once done on your land will be the marker for your journey. 

This journey is not a rejection of all that was learned from our departure into the hubris of modernism.  There are some very important truths to carry with you on the return to earlier ways of living.  Since this is a lifeboat there is only so much of this valuable modern knowledge you can put on your lifeboat.  This is where a deep wisdom is required that almost always will be about less things and knowledge in a world with too much of both.  This is about forced simplicity but leveraged with meaning.

Green prepping approaches this as a retreat-in-force.  This is a flexible retreat in the face of overwhelming forces of decline on all levels.  Green prepping seeks an aggressive motivation towards simplicity.  You will attack with more complexity at times to break out of the pocket you are locked into.  You will seek defensive simplicity in a world locked into a failing complexity. 

Simplicity is required for the decline process because the breakdown of a complex system is always about an existential simplification but since this is a time of complex systems, complexity will have to be in your tool box.  It is the proper mix of simplicity and complexity that is the key.  It is also critical you understand this is also the proper mix of your spirituality with the available science you will need to physically adapt. 

How you evaluate your local decline limitations is critical.  It takes meaning to see this but also skills to implement action.  I can only give you generalities because this is uniquely local in expression.  Your spirituality is unique and personal so all I can say is green it up and include prepping with your own personal journey of meaning.

This is about forced degrowth which means complex technology and networks will undergo abandonment.  This decline will hopefully be over time so do not panic.  There will be consequences with increasingly dysfunctional networks that you have come to rely on.  Understand the consequences so you can have a plan of action.  Widespread irrational behavior is a result of this breakdown.  This surreal condition will require a special focus to avoid the dangers of the many reefs that luck in the dark waters your lifeboat will be journeying on.

This breakdown will promote more irrational behavior and you will want to avoid these false promises.  This is a perfect storm of reinforcing bad behavior combined with forces of a system decline.  This is a convergence. This converging becomes a vortex of cascading problems forcing more bad behavior.  Looking at this in a simple way.   It advisable to stop digging when in a hole.  The key is to realize the hole you are in.  This is local so the nature of your trap will vary.

A retreat-in-force is a way of being ready to stand ground as needed to protect ones retreat into a defensive simplicity.  Simplicity is the only logical reaction to a complex system breaking down but this must be done realistically and relatively or else you just become part of the route of complexity.  Action is needed but measured action based on your limitations.  Know your limitations and be humble and accepting about this.

It must be recognized that the breakdown of a complex system frees up niches of growth that need to be aggressively embraced.  This means your homestead need to beef up its systems and supplies if you have a good local.  You will grow if possible, with growth that has value to oppose entropy in all its forms.  This mirrors the life system where niches are exploited by species when an ecosystem enters the succession of decline.

This retreat-in-force needs to also yield and retreat flexibly.   Utilize strength to slow and delay the effects of decline.  Decline will come at you from all angles.  To avoid becoming disoriented, you first need to embrace the process.  What this means is a proper dematerialization and decoupling but in a realistic and relative way.  The retreat is dictated by circumstances so voluntary simplicity is adapted.  This is an offensive simplicity.  Offensive simplicity means embracing simplicity as a goal with complexity when it fits.   The wisdom of insecurity will guide you with this.

This wisdom may appear convoluted but when you embrace the decline process with humility then you connect to the forces of the planet and life.  When you do this your spiritually will have a natural adaptation instinct that is supported by the force of change.  The planet and life system actually support you because you flow with its current instead of against the flow.  This is where denial and acceptance must be understood.  Those in denial will dig their hole deeper.  Those in acceptance will stop digging.

This effort becomes one of instinct removing some of the debilitating effects of fear.  Fear is healthy but the fear of fear is where action is diminished by loss of courage and clear thinking.  Panic never ends well so embracing insecurity is a must.  There is a wisdom to this that must become ingrained in your unique spirituality.  This is not about reinventing your existing spirituality it is about adaptation.

I would compare this to an offensive defense.  You may need to attack to gain a defensive position.  In green prepping this means even though you are green you will utilize the unsustainable resources of technology and fossil energy as needed to strengthen your efforts to go local and embrace permaculture. 

Here permaculture is defined as efforts to utilize local biomass in a simplicity relative and realistic to the nature of your local.  This is why postion is so important.  In war postion is essential.  This is a spirtual war as well as a physical one.  The attrition of entropic decay is unstoppable but can be slowed.  Positioning is all important.   

This means a retreat-in-force should include more advanced technology and fossil energy as needed and available.  This is done even though biomass and the appropriate technology of low or no tech is the goal.  Since we are in a technological fossil energy world, you will need to utilized them to leave them.  Technology and fossil energy value must be utilized but with a wisdom that balances the damage they do to resilience and sustainability. 

This is about understanding this is a Catch 22 but with options better or worse.  This effort is about triage, salvage, and hybridization of these seemingly incongruous juxtapositions.  This is an opportunistic effort where you seek a microclime of relative safety.  This means offensive action in a general retreat.

REAL Green is about relative and realistic efforts towards permaculture localism.  Growth is needed to degrowth.  This mirrors the ecosystem when in succession.  Species exploit niches where opportunities for growth are but this is done defensively because overall the system is decaying.   

Decay must be the operative quality to your wisdom.  Growth is needed to embrace degrowth.   The wisdom of this means a downsizing of potential.   Be very discriminating with any growth you choose.

This is an adapted simplicity because it is an adaptation with simplicity for a place a self-organizing complexity has put you.  Simply growth is easy.  Degrowth is not easy and will cause much dissonance.  This will be painful so have no illusions about the pain ahead. 

The current human narrative does not recognize this macro force of degrowth.  Even where limits to growth are acknowledged in our current narrative the solutions are a delusional hole digging effort at more complexity and resources.   Voluntary simplicity here is about acceptance of something not fully recognized nor accepted but well enough understood as a building failure of all the systems we rely on.

In some circles the opposite is being attempted to what I am recommending.  These are the disciples of the Great Reset.  These disciples are anti-life and will be eliminated by life’s forces but not before much collateral damage.  It will be these people you will want to avoid at all cost.  These are the radicals of the left that have embraced technocratic concentration of power with centralization of the destructive forces of humanism that are destroying our families and communities.

Modern greens might talk about degrowth but what they really want is more centralization and technology camouflaged as degrowth.  These are Marxist lies that are the technocratic urge to more control.   Unconsciously and in mass formation psychosis they are in denial of the decline process.  This is a scam-demic of one delusion after another.  This is the subterfuge of the elites for their own survival not yours.

The decline process requires acceptance and humility which is embracing the insecurity of decentralization.  The administrative state must be deconstructed not grown.  Cities must be depopulated not expanded.  Technology must be made appropriate not advanced into higher complexity.  All this is antithesis to the current narrative of the great reset the elites, technocrats, and radical foot soldiers of he left are embracing.

A wisdom of insecurity is needed to know what technology and knowledge to embrace and what to reject.  This can only be found locally with small communities, tribe, and family.  Currently the centralization of technocratic modernism in the great reset wants to eliminate the power of the people at the grass roots where people power is needed most.  It is here where proper adaptation is possible.  The top is completely lost in the urge to power that has always destroyed civilizations. 

Civilizations always trend towards empire.  This is a natural progression so the wisdom of insecurity accepts this instead of preaching utopian fixes.  Mankind is in a constant state of war because of our dualism.  This war is in our hearts too and comes from self-consciousness.  Grace is the peace offered to those who are meek.  Be a soldier but meek.

It is only through acceptance and humility that this existential war can be adapted to with finding value added growth increasing security.  This is a lock-in so there is no transcendence only an awakening that is transformative.  This is an embrace of a journey that is a lifeboat.   It is more importantly a hospice of acceptance of the mortality of it all.  It is only this aspect that will give courage in this time of loss.

I would recommend being prepped with energy, food, and water.  These needs means embracing consumerism and technology while you still can.  It is the proper embrace of these decaying resources that is key.  There is so much good stuff available these days that can make a homestead a hardened target.  Growth these items to degrowth in strength.  Degrowth is about retreat but adapt this as a retreat with strength.

The spirtual aspect of this retreat-in-force is embracing the planet.  It will lead you.  Being rural is the best way to discover this power.  Acceptance and humility have to be applied to everything you do.  You have a nature and nurture that patterns your meaning.   Everyone has a gut feeling for what is their truth.  This must be adapted to the planet and the web of life in the decline. 

Decreasing complexity is then embraced because this becomes your instinct to reality.  You will reality test with these attitudes.  The planet’s systems are in abrupt change and the web of life is in an extinction process.   The richness of species diversity is now a poverty of loss.  This is the keystone for what needs to adapt your spirituality.

In a commons sense way, you will need to beef up your spirtual meaning to maintain your dignity for the disenfranchisement ahead.  If you do not feel good about the tough actions you are taking you will not have courage.  Remember this is a war of attrition and entropy will win but how fast and how deep the decline has a huge impact.  This is about degree and duration and this is the gold standard for an individual or species ability to be resilient to a crisis.  Adapt degree and duration to be survivable.

The spiritually you will need is an existential incongruous juxtaposition.   A paradoxical consciousness to what is right is wrong and what is wrong is the new right.  This juxtaposition is not with universal morality.  This paradox is with the current human narrative of globalism that is in overshoot.  The consciousness of seeing through the narrative of what is considered the right way is what this embrace gives you.  This allows you to see over the hill for what is emerging but not yet realized. 

What this is about is an optimistic pessimism.  The optimism is in the journey but the destination is decline and loss.  Today there is the ingrained stress for an optimism of a manifest destiny of a human exceptionalism of greater affluence.  We commonly hear failure is not an option.  You see through this as bargaining with reality.   The proper action in the decline process is about a journey into crisis on a well thought out lifeboat. 

If there is optimism it is the courage and heroics that comes from meaning.  Meaning is greatly diminished being in denial.  This is the bargaining we do when caught up in the narrative of optimism.  This is negotiating in denial.  When this fails there is anger.  Anger is wasted energy.  Leap frog this directly into acceptance.

This is a journey that can only come from spirtual strength.  Tech and knowledge must be treated with wisdom.  Value embraced in regards to enhancing the journey.  Affluence is embraced only in regards to the journey to increased simplicity.  This is where the incongruous juxtaposition becomes apparent.  A surreal vision of the path forward means declining affluence is apparent so what affluence is available gets converted to beneficial growth into more simplicity.

BOUNDARIES’

I am posting this without comment.  What I did was take a David Korowicz’s 31-page White Paper and distill it down to 7 pages.  What I do recommend is you read the paper in its entirety if this is of interest to you.  This paper represents the best system science I have seen for the place we are at currently.  System science is the proper way to view these diverse macro impacts to your local life.  The importance of this view of current events is to place yourself within it.  Where are you in relation to a breakdown of this complex system?  This will not get you out of it but instead assist your mitigation of its effects.  It will help you determine what steps you can take.

This is real folks.  This is no longer me crying wolf about collpase.  There will be some kind of collpase that will self-organize into 2023 so at least have an understanding of the dynamics.  This paper is from 2018 and I would call it the review mirror.   2018 was the peak year of affluence.  It is now 2022 post pandemic with a financial, food, and energy crisis emerging.  Difficult weather will compound this.  I am now in a moderate drought I have not seen since 2013.  This current situation is compounded by a very dangerous proxy war in Ukraine.  If that was not enough there is an increasing possibility for a war over Taiwan.  If this Taiwan war occurs, I would say to you to hunker down immediately for very hard times ahead.

“Beyond Resilience: Global Systemic Risk, Systemic Failure, & Societal Responsiveness”

David Korowicz , Margaret Calantzopoulos 1 2

November 2018

https://389781d4-2000-4800-8ff2-c13e64a6aa0c.filesusr.com/ugd/94fdd9_d0ee5f5e0c264527ba423ad920a8bd5c.pdf?index=true

Axial Stress Phase

“The initial trigger could be a major pandemic, a financial system collapse, a cyber-attack on critical infrastructure, a natural disaster, a protracted environmental catastrophe, a socio-political crisis, or some confluence of stresses and shocks…There is a growing gap between the risk – understood as likelihood times impact – of catastrophic systemic failure in complex society, and societal understanding and preparedness…“Deepening Vulnerability: As the human systems that enable societal functioning (the grid, supply chains, the financial system, telecommunications, behavioral coordination) become ever more globalised, complex, inter-dependent and high-speed, our vulnerability to largescale systemic failure is increasing.”

Growing Drivers of Stress and Shocks

“We have now entered a period that we call an Axial Stress Phase, where societies globally are and will be increasingly exposed to major stressors linked to: resource constraints (e.g. food, oil, water), sink-related constraints (e.g. impacts of climate change, ecosystem collapses) and internal constraints (e.g. credit hyperextension, fraying socio-political trust, declining marginal returns to problem solving, war).”

Page 4

“there is growing recognition that those complex infrastructures and systems that sustain the normal operation of society, and which are highly resilient to small stresses and shocks, contain severe intrinsic vulnerabilities to large shocks. If the grid is incapacitated (due to a natural disaster or a cyber-attack); or the financial system fails (due to systemic banking collapse), the operations across the whole society can shut down…In a highly interdependent global system, shocks and stresses can propagate through supply chains, financial systems, communications and mass human movement. Further, a major global shock that impacts a region with high centrality – one that contains critical sustaining interdependencies with the rest of the world – can ignite destabilising global contagion.”

Page 5

“In a similar manner, a failure of a global region or network of high centrality, such as the financial system, or global productivity (from a severe pandemic) can begin to shut down the global flow of goods and services. In such cases the possibility of irreversible global systemic collapse increases. In a high speed, Just-in-Time [JIT] economy, these processes can be very rapid. As societies and economies move along paths that tend toward further economic growth and efficiency, and solve problems by adding further complexity, the vulnerability will increase.”

Page 6

“The first point here is that the interactions are heterogeneous – one cannot consider the impacts of the financial crisis, climate change, or distant state collapse in isolation because global socio-economic stability is increasingly interwoven. Secondly, stress and shocks are contributing to the generation of new stresses and uncertainties. For example: Brexit and the Trump phenomenon, trade wars, and increasing inter- and intra-state tensions. Thirdly, strained societies can lose resilience, and become more vulnerable to further crises.”

“Compounding events will become more common. For example, synchronous climatic stresses affecting global food supplies; rising socio-political and economic stress amplifying the impact of food price spikes; or a series of major hurricanes in high-centrality regions concurrent with a period of heightened financial tension – can have non-linear impacts – bigger than the sum of individual hazards alone. At the same time, declining resilience means that recovery from a localised systems failure is constrained, while impacts outside the affected region/ network become more susceptible to contagion. In such a context, the paths to global systemic instability and failure multiply, as the likelihood increases.”

“We have no experience of a large-scale systemic failure in a complex society to draw upon”

Page 7

THE TRANSFORMATION OF RISK

Globally Integrated Systemic Risk

“There is a growing recognition that the risk to human welfare and societal functioning is being transformed , . To understand the implications of this it is necessary to consider risk in 3 4 a holistic sense , . In this characterisation, we bring forth the concept of Globally Integrated 5 6 Systemic risk. It acknowledges the fact that dependencies are indeed globalised and constrained in structure and behaviour, and that a growing number of critical stresses will transmit and interact world-wide . As the system becomes more tightly integrated and 7 stressed, one can no longer deliberate over environmental and socio-economic crises – and specific solutions to them – in isolation, but must consider the emergent behaviour of the system as a whole. Its analytical methodology is rooted in the study of complex systems, and risk analysis. Such a perspective acknowledges collective system constraints, heterogeneity, feedback, path dependence, irreversibility, and the existence of tipping points. Siloed analysis and modelling, which represents the current way of apprehending the issues we face, remains blind to this transforming reality.  We have entered a period where the risks we face are becoming more extreme in their impacts, more probable in their likelihood, and potentially irreversible in their duration. This transformation arises from a convergence which can be broadly formulated as follows:”

Increasing Vulnerability

“Firstly, as the networks that maintain our welfare and the general coherence of civilisation grow in scale and become more integrated, complex, interdependent, delocalised, highspeed, synchronised and efficient vulnerability is increasing The tightening spatial and temporal correlation between the growing complexity of goods and services flowing through civilisation implies a declining volatility through global systems. Those include production processes, supply-chains; infrastructures; behavioural norms, institutional legitimacy, and trust. If interruptions to the flow of production were common, for example, due to political unrest, blackouts, flooding or storms, bank failure or wars, then such tight correlations would not have evolved. One of the defining characteristics of the process of civilisation is volatility suppression, see appendix I.”

Page 8

“More complexity and interdependence mean that a failure of one part of the system can cause disturbance and disruption in other vital parts and regions across the globe in a manner that may not be obvious. As global systems increase in speed, in the form of maintenance and input turnover times, financial flows, JIT logistics, and human movement – contagion processes can propagate rapidly through and across networks. Delocalisation means that, outside the vanishingly few actually self-sufficient pockets of the world, no country, critical infrastructure, business, community or person can control the conditions of their own operational persistence, and thus be truly resilient.”

“Like the homeostatic regulation of temperature in humans, complex society and its subsystems act to persist and stabilise in the face of stresses and shocks. But the bounds of resilience have narrowed as systemic volatility declined, making the system more brittle to the range, intensity and frequency larger shocks we can expect in a more systemically stressed world (see next section). The coherence and stability of society can be threatened when resilience is undermined, and a shock of sufficient scale hits a high-centrality part of a socio-economic network. In this case, a tipping point can be passed where the stabilising forces are over whelmed, and some contagion processes undermine critical inter-dependent systems in a reinforcing cycle of disintegration. It is the underlying level of complexity and interdependence that determines the collapse depth: it is the speed of civilisational processes that determines the collapse rate. And, it is the complexity, interdependence and scale of the affected region that largely delineates the scope for recovery/ non-recovery.”

“The result is a loss in complexity and the intermediating processes that sustain societal welfare in all its dimensions. It can also be considered as a step-change loss in the capacity to use energy and other resources. From the point of view of societal operations, it would represent a shut-down in the circulation of goods and services.”

Page 9

Axial Stressors

“Secondly, there is an array of increasingly pressing, large-scale drivers of stress and shocks that can test such vulnerabilities. These can be described as Axial Stressors since they are persistent and growing, they arise from the operation of civilisation itself and are critical to its operation and stability They include: a) declining marginal returns on the ecosystem-based inputs required to maintain and grow our civilisation – most pressingly: food, oil and water; b) the rising impacts of waste and ecosystem interference arising from it – most prominently climate change; and c) growing stress within the operation of civilisation – especially: credit hyperexpansion, declining marginal returns to complexity and problem solving, and fraying societal trust and cooperation. Collectively, these act to constrain economic activity, increase volatility, raise the cost of sustaining and maintaining existing systems, and make problem-solving more difficult .”

Emergent Interactions

“Thirdly is the emergent behavior of the growing Axial Stressors and their interactions through increasingly vulnerable global systems.  The fabric of conditions that maintain and coordinate the inputs required for societal function, and that is adaptive to the historical, volatility-suppressed period becomes itself a growing source of risk transmission. This is likely to manifest in growing economic, social and political tension, and an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of shocks, and compounding events. Many new pathways for stress and shocks are likely to appear, further increasing volatility and intrinsic uncertainty. Societies are likely to find that recovery to the historical trend is more difficult as heterogeneous and repeated shocks have evermore nonlinear impacts, while resilience is compromised. Instability is increasingly destabilising, while resilience and adaptive capacity are lost. Rising volatility, and an undermining of a systems capacity to recover from shocks (called critical slowing down) are common early-warning signals that a given configuration is becoming more susceptible to collapse .”

Systemic Lock-In

“Finally, as it is the systems and networks we depend upon that are themselves undermining our dependencies, our trajectory is marked by systemic lock-in. That is, we are locked into crisis-inducing dynamics which we will be largely unable to change.  We should bear in mind that we did not design global civilisation, it self-organised. We do not understand it, except in parts; and we do not control it, except within niches. The more unstable the system becomes, and the more radical the surgery we wish to do to avert a crisis, the more we risk compromising the extant systems we depend upon.”

Page 10

Historic Growth Phase

“This is the phase represented by the exponential growth, complexity, and integration of global civilisation, as represented in figure:1. While this phase always had periods of socioeconomic tensions, and some transmission of shocks, large-scale system integration was maintained, and recovery to trend assumed. The bounds of resilience of the system and its sub-systems was forged in this generally stabilising, low volatility period (appendix: 1).  This period shaped our assumptions of the world – from our expectation that we can buy food in the supermarket, and have sanitation and communications, to investments in renewable energy, pensions, critical infrastructure, and education. It also provided the analytical frameworks behind economic growth models (including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections). All take for granted the continuity of systems integration.”

Axial Stress Phase

“This phase, which we argue we have already entered, assumes that the general critical operations of civilisation – the flow of goods and services, critical infrastructures, and sociopolitical stability – are maintained at scale, even though there may be increasing localised disruptions and failures. However, emergent interactions increase the headwinds against economic growth and raise the costs of maintaining the status quo while generating new sources of risk and uncertainty. Populations, industries and countries are exposed to chronic economic, social and political stresses and supply/ demand shocks, supply chain disruptions, environmental crises, oil and food price volatility, recessions, debt defaults and migrant flows. Systems strive to adapt and absorb them. But the persistence of stressors and the rising frequency and scale of shocks makes reversion to trend progressively more difficult, with each new disruption having an increasingly non-linear impact. Net overall resilience and adaptive capacity declines.”

Broadly, in Axial Stress period one could anticipate:

“The divergence between historically adaptive expectations and the emerging realities to deepen. No government, no matter how selfless and astute, will be able to meet those expectations.  •Growing tension between the natural response of increasing tribalism (including inter and  intra-state conflict) and globalized interdependency, amplifying societal stress.  November, 2018 Page 10 of 31 11  •Social discount rates rise – which express itself as more trade-offs between the need to maintain immediate stability at the cost of undermining near-future stability.  •Cognitive and institutional paralysis and overload to intensify.  In such a context it becomes more and more difficult to mitigate stressors and build resilience at scale as the economic and social costs of maintaining stability rise, while capacities decline”

Page 11

Systemic Collapse Phase

“This phase is when the general critical operations of society are lost at a large scale. It is when system integration and synchronisation break down as critical inter-dependent subsystems fail, causing other subsystems to fail. The complexity, interdependence, process speed and delocalisation of current, habituated dependency mean such a breakdown can be rapid, deep and potentially irreversible. Localised failure is a feature of the Axial Stress Phase, where the outside region may have a significantly reduced capacity to respond and repair. It is nevertheless possible that with preparedness/contingency planning partial recovery or just amelioration of suffering becomes easier.”

“If the initially affected region (e.g., the United Kingdom, Germany, California) or network (e.g., global financial system, or a production shock from a severe global pandemic) is of high centrality, the suite of contagion processes can collapse the entire civilisation.  One potential driver of such a civilisational collapse event, though it may have a diversity of initial triggers, is a global financial collapse . Any credit-based system is inherently a call on 11 future productive capacity, and by implication, assumes the continuity of systems integration and the resource input flows that sustain it. The Axial Stressor-induced volatility and constraints on economic growth will have put continuing strain on an already over-extended financial system. In such a collapse, the suite of monetary system failure, collapsed banks, vanished credit and an inability to ascertain currencies value arrest commercial transactions. This cuts inputs into production processes. In an efficient, highly sophisticated, JIT economy, the loss of critical inputs rapidly cascades through the entirety of societal operations. The effort to re-establish some form of monetary system is undermined as production grinds to a halt, and the future becomes very uncertain – which is the ultimate backing for a currency. Some vital inputs might be commandeered or bartered, but given the current diversity of supporting flows necessary to maintain a society, infrastructure, factory or family, a systemic failure proceeds.”

“Once contagion processes are underway, the transition to a societal arrest can occur in a matter of days. Food, telecommunications, water, sanitation, healthcare, transport, emergency services and governance are severely impacted. Recovery is impossible because coherence has been lost, and societal concerns of necessity focus on survival and adaption. The impacts may include persistent critical infrastructure failure, significant disease and pandemic outbreaks, institutional paralysis, state failure, food shortages and famine.  The risks of famine can be intuited from the fact that in industrialized societies the supply of food from farm to warehouse to supermarket can rapidly vanish. Without a financial system and minimal transport, linking food from farms to urban populations is exceedingly hard. Moreover, without industrially produced seeds, fertiliser, pesticides, farm machinery, spare parts, fuels and irrigation – production can catastrophically fail. International food trade almost ceases as countries focus upon their citizens.”

Page 12

Divergent Localised Adaptation Phase

“The third stage is how different regions – shaped by varying geographical, social, economic and ecological histories – adapt to the enforced localisation and chronic emergencies. In time some international trade might pick up, and some regions stabilise at a much lower standard of living/ socio-economic complexity, but overall the situation remains severely trying. Most complex technologies are lost, including critical infrastructures, military systems, capacities to extract and refine oil, produce synthetic fertilisers, pharmaceuticals etc.  It is from this point that we confront the chasm between provisioning our basic needs (e.g. food, water, society) and our profound maladaptation to that task. It is also where we face the implications of our long-term undermining of ecological services that could be ignored as long as civilisational operations were maintained. This includes, for example, depleted soil, compromised bio-diversity and hydrological cycles. Moreover, we have to deal with the ongoing and growing implications of climate change even if the Systemic Collapse Phase has considerably reduced our capacity to emit greenhouse gasses. Our ability to adjust to the direct and indirect impacts is from a position with little adaptive capacity and persistent food insecurity, population decline, large population displacements, physical insecurity, and loss of collective intellectual capital. However, this does not mean that there would not be places and times that people are secure, content, adapting to new realities, and living meaningful lives. Localised outcomes over time become harder to assess as there is potentially a much greater range of conditions and responses with broader path dependency.”

Page 22

CONCLUSION

“We are blind to our dependencies, complacent of our vulnerabilities. Our temporal myopia has led us to assume a form of continuity based upon an extraordinary 250-year moment in human history. But the accelerating growth in societal complexity is imperiling the foundations of our welfare, while at the same time we confront growing stresses on multiple fronts. One outcome is that societies will have to face the growing possibility of large-scale systemic failures, from local and reversible, to global and irreversible.  There may be other possible futures. We are already overwhelmingly invested, materially, culturally, and emotionally in some variants of systemic continuity. It would surely be prudent given the transformation of risk that, as a society, we engage in some form of preparedness, as a form of insurance, given the scale of potential consequences.  It is in the nature of the transformation that the possibility of large-scale systemic failure can emerge with dis-orientating speed. Thus there is an urgency to begin to engage in societal preparedness. Not to avoid what might be inevitable, but to respond in ways that reduce suffering, and build upon what’s best in our human story.”

the fool

“The Fool arcanum represents a young enthusiastic man wearing luxury clothes, standing close to the edge of a cliff, with a dog that can represent our animal nature.  He does not seem bound to the limits of our terrestrial world, and his eyes are looking up to the divine and celestial planes, showing his aspiration to rise up spiritually even when you sometimes need to jump into the unknown. He is ready for it, because he is supported by his conviction that Divine Providence will help him to improve his human condition…The sun that shines behind him is meant to illuminate the path that should be taken, and protect him as he works towards his goals…Others see the Fool as the ultimate symbol of supreme initiation.  With this interpretation he is the true Initiate, reaching for Ultimate knowledge…is about to undergo deep spiritual changes, or is standing at the crossroads of something important in their life…The Fool will bring them into a world of spirituality, where they may find Knowledge out of most people’s reach. With this interpretation, the Fool symbolizes a need for freedom and independence. It indicates a positive evolution on a path of wisdom.”

We are at the precipice of an age tipping over.  We are at the pinnacle where an old world gives over to a new one.  This is with the physical knowledge of science but also the metaphysical of spirtual revelations.  It is those who can see this reality with these views together that realize we are at or near the precipice.

It is those who know this special knowledge that will submit to its requirements and go forth on its behalf.  This is life unfolding in a new way requiring a new approach that humans have not seen in a few thousand years.   There was an explosion of awareness in the last awakening of spirituality that brought the great religions and spiritualities of the antiquities.  This differs though in placement in a fundamentally different age but not in substance.

This age is not one of growth in a new age of stability that was to bring agriculture and industry.  This is the tipping over into an age where man is absorbed back into nature to assume a proper place that is now unbalanced.  In this process, us mere mortals who live very short lives will see a particularly disruptive period of turbulence like when the laminar flow of air on a wing is disrupted.  This can be a crash or a landing because in both instances turbulence is required or present.  A landing is actually a controlled crash and this represents an insight for what is ahead.

I am speaking in a holistic way of things but I speak to the individual.  I speak to very few of you.  Not many can see this place although if you study with honest science plus a spiritual approach with humility then this place is clear and vivid.  This calls for a new human type that will be molded out of this time of great change.  It will be those who like the fool embrace this time unconditionally seeking its support.

You will be supported if you respond to this call.  Nature knows this place.  Life has gone through bottlenecks before and its basic nature has adapted to these recurring times.  Conforming voluntarily to this reality results in divine providence.  Do not seek miracles but instead witness those already all around you.  Ecosystems break down and open up opportunity.  This opportunity is not obtained but instead offered to those who open up to this grace.

In a sense all knowledge that has come before will be of little use because this tipping over is other worldly.  This is not foreign but intimate and innate.  This is a getting back to who we really are.  There is an ultimate knowledge to this that requires a rejection of knowledge of the past.  This rejection is not in repudiation which is judgmental but instead a sacrifice like presented to Abraham.  It is the sheading of the constraints of previous knowledge to open up to a new way to a proper knowledge for what is ahead.

This is so simple because it is the basis of life on this planet.  The simplicity of it makes it beyond most because today’s knowledge is of the type that is based on power and gain.  This is about what knowledge that is required to make the spirtual leap into this new world.   This new world is the rebalancing of humans and their relationship to their planet and fellow life.  The simplicity of this is the returning to what our hunter gathers ancestors respected.  This is not a return to that time but instead a marker to how life must be approached ahead.

I speak to you the individual as a green shaman.  I speak about REAL Green.  This is a way to live for a some during this time.  I say some because increasingly people are urban.  REAL Green is about leaving that life so I am not qualified to speak to those seeking an urban version.  REAL Green is about depopulating cities not doubling down on them.  Cities are where this trap is the most difficult.  Cities are where affluence is perused most powerfully.  It is affluence that must be departed from so cities are the ultimate trap.

 REAL Green is not a refuge.  It won’t save you.  What it can offer is the strength to dance near this cliff.  If you have been awakened then you see the cliff.  Seeing the cliff, you can withdraw in fear or live with that fear.  This will be a very fearful time.  A wisdom of insecurity will guide you on this journey if you learn to live with fear.

This is about the journey into a new age with new skills that are old ones.  It is about a new spirituality that is a new and old one.  It is the blending of the amazing knowledge we have gathered over these many thousands of years.  It is the blending with the old ways that is the key to it.  It will be those who apply this blended wisdom that are able to journey best.  This wisdom is not tech based.  It is a spirtual knowledge that guides what science and tech to seek.  It will be about the triage of knowledge that can’t be taken on a life boat on a sea of change.

This is about a time of finding proper knowledge by eliminating the clutter as best one can in a realistic and relative way.  It is about knowing one’s limitations in acceptance and humility.  This act is required because modern knowledge is so powerful.  The knowledge you can tap into is more powerful.  It is what propels life.  The only way to tap into this is with humility.  This is the basic requirement of proper spirituality.

I have been talking very spirtual lately when the message of REAL Green is a practical.  REAL Green is a way of gathering and harvesting energy through biomass but also properly utilizing modern sources that are fossil and tech related.  The nature of this age requires both but the key is less modern and more of the old ways.  It is those who properly combine the two who will have a robust lifeboat. 

The way to do this is first spirtual.   This spirtual exercise will be the hardest of skills to acquire.  I am speaking spirtual lately because there is so much unfolding so quickly that it is required of me to speak of it.  Decades are unfolding in a short time indicating a shift is near.  This is like the pounding of the drums at a Native American dance.  It is a call to the immediacy of what is ahead.

It is very difficult to lower your affluence because it is our nature and the nature of this age to increase affluence.  This age has been characterized by competitive cooperation.  The cooperative has leveraged the competitive to become a golden age of affluence.  We have seen an age of conquest giving over to an attempt at global cooperation.  Unfortunately, this has seen the corruption of power and knowledge.  This is now destroying this age of affluence.  Your natural instinct is to have more affluence but what is needed is less but of the right kind.

To find the right kind is a spirtual skill to be learned but more importantly awakened to.  The awakening is looking to nature for how it does things.  This is a blending of awakened proper living with the many wonderful things created in this age.  Use the skills of homesteading and permaculture as your basic lifeboat.  Then look to the stars as earlier navigators did to chart your course.  This terrestrial navigation is really about orientation to the ways of nature that can only be fund through humility and acceptance in a properly scaled local way of life.  This is not messianic it is simple and ordinary.

This will be hard work physically and mentally.  It is about less physical and mental comforts but with resulting spirtual meaning.  It is this spirtual meaning that becomes the guiding principles of the palliative care of the hospice.  This hospice is a kind of explanation and expression of the destructive change of what is ahead.  It is a type of death but different than our mortal end.  It is the death of an age and way of life but one that may unfold for generations.  This may sound like a long time but a generation in human time is so little as to barely make a mark on an age.

If this is done properly then it is a type of waking up like the Buddhist realize from their meditations where they battle their frustrations.  It is the final letting go of the frustrations that is the key to moving forward in ease.  In a sense the demons become angels and then there is a moment of clarity.  This is the simplicity and complexity of what is ahead.  If you begin this journey, you will find meaning and it is meaning that has always been a requirement of being truly human.