Hear the Thunder

I am the type that starts from pessimism to get to optimism.  This is unlike the leadership today that is lying and promising and will leave you with a disappointment.  Reality is your best friend so embrace it despite the pessimism.  It may be brutal at times but it is going to offer you the best path.  Lies, promises, and cheating is going to lead to poor choices.   Malinvestment of resources in short supply in this age of decline is the result.  I will tell you the ugly so you can get to the good.

The ugly is we have food shortages and limited food choices ahead.  There is no question that what has happened in the last 3 years is going to result in food chain issues with localized failures.  You have to understand food is an industrial process now.  Industry has been hit hard by supply chain issues.  Now it is being hit hard by supply chain issues that relates to inflation.  Remember the inverse of supply chains is payment chains.  Inflation ravages payment chains just like shortages destroy supply chains.

Resources are going up in price with less available.  Energy is particularly at risk from lower investment in reliable fossil fuels.  Green energy push is a lie with promises that are distorting the true extent of the difficulties ahead.  Net energy is in decline.  Fossil fuels are depleting.  Renewables are not reliable replacements and everything about their manufacture and assembly include fossil fuels.  Storage strategies for renewables don’t add up.  Green hydrogen is a myth.  The amount of fresh water needed for green hydrogen is huge.  Fresh water is in short supply and it requires large amount of energy to make available.

Primary energy is dominated by fossil fuels with hardly a budge from 10 years ago when the so called renewable revolution was declared.  The green revolution has not materialized although the green propaganda has.  Primary energy is dominated by fossil fuels and will continue to be.  There is no alternative.  This message is deeper than the green’s message of climate change.  This is about net energy decline with fossil fuels.  There may be ample left but not economic enough to continue to grow as we have in the past.  In fact, it is going to be impossible to maintain what we have now.  So prepare for decline and decay of everything.

Technology is in diminishing returns because of decline and decay.  It is also stalling out with breakthroughs.  The physics of technology have pushed limits in all fields.  The digital revolution has in reality just made us more vulnerable.  With each incremental effort to automate and apply algorithm connected by the digital web we are seeing less stability.  Efficiency is a deadly weapon once it tips over into diminishing returns.  This is true for systems but also physical aspects of energy and food. 

We are now more vulnerable than at any time in human history because of progress.  This is magnified by a doubling down by the globalist and technocrats of the World Economic forum that are slowing trying to consolidate their power at the expense of your personal security.  Their intensions are a technocratic urban world with authoritarianism to force failed polices upon you. 

These people are incompetent and reckless.  The last 3 years proves this without a doubt.  In this last 3 years the conspiracy aspect of who the globalist are has been revealed.  They have revealed this and now are using any crisis they can to obtain more power over you.  They are not hiding their intentions although they are claiming they will save civilization and the planet.  Their polices are failures if you dig into the past 2 decades.  They want more of these polices not less.

Depending on where you are at and the financial class you are in will determine just how bad this gets.  I am middleclass in a food rich area.  This does not mean I am going to avoid food choice issues but it is likely food availability will remain good.  I like quality food.  A lot of the food I buy I buy on Amazon mainly because it is not typical of a normal grocery store.  I buy fresh fruits and vegetables at the store.  I buy meats there too.  It is not cost effective for me to butcher my own stock. 

My garden, orchard, and forage are more of a seasonal enjoyment.  I get a short window of on the farm foods this way.  I don’t have time to do everything needed to lower my food dependence.  I have 400 acres to run.  I have firewood to cut.  I have 50 goats and 12 cattle.  I have buildings, roads, and systems to maintain.  I have a house to run.  I have animals and people to feed.  One person with a little help from my wife and kids is not enough to be able to do everything needed.  This is why large families are needed but few are around these days.

Feeding myself in this modern world is not an option.  Indirectly I raise more calories than I consume.  Financially this is not the case I spend more on food related things than the revenue from my farm.  Even my firewood is negative when I consider how low my overall costs would be going all electric.  This is changing as power prices surge but my KWH cost for all electric is cheaper than firewood.  Firewood is not cheap or easy but I do it because it is resilient and sustainable.  I am a green prepper and firewood is both green and prepped.

If you are in the wrong place living the wrong lifestyles you are going to have an ugly awakening.  The poor of the world are especially at risk.  The population of the world is far too great to adequately adapt to what is ahead.  This is actually with available food calories but also at the costs people can afford.  Psychologically this is going to hit hard too as food normality evaporates.  We all like our foods and giving up what we like in the amounts we are comfortable with is going to be disturbing. 

The ugly side of these shortages is a manufactured problem at least in the short term.  It is actually something the bad actors have manufactured through incompetence, recklessness, and the deceit of greed and power.  The environmental movement with their green ideas is contributing to this.  They want to save the planet with more of what is killing it.  It is amazing how uneducated these supposedly educated people are.  Even scientist who have PHDs are clueless of economics and above all common sense of what they are proposing.  This is the problem with specialization.  Combine propaganda of nefarious characters like the globalist and you have a prescriptions for a horrible outcome that did not need to happen.

What modern greens want is to live the good life and green it up.  They want their cake and eat it.  They are even more disturbed trying to insert woke nonsense into the equations as if that is going to make the planet greener.  I am a green so I know how delusional the modern green is.  Woke is worse than the injustice it claims to fix.  It is a lie and a power grab.  Green liberals many who are educated are just smart enough to be dangerous.  They are buying into the lies and promises by the bad actors who are greedy and seek power.

These bad actors are the stakeholder capitalist who are pushing environmental and social governance.  These are the same people pushing the global woke movement which is essentially based upon the CIA inspired color revolution tactics.  The basic methods of the CIA is to lie, cheat, and steal.  This may be fine when directed towards an enemy but now we are the enemy.  They are doing this to gain technocratic power.  Color revolution technics are the same as cultural Marxism.  These people do not care about social justice or the environment.  They care about power.  If they did care, they would lead by example.  They want you to do the leading by example.  They will continue to avoid sacrifices and in fact get richer as you get poorer.

Just as Covid response was a lie and the Ukraine war a globalist instigated war so will the coming food crisis be used as one of those “never let a crisis go to waste”.  These people are indoctrinated and also class sociopaths.  Their club are the very rich and the very powerful both in government and private business.  These elements are converging.  It is no longer evident where the lines between private and public are.  What is clear is this is modern fascism with an out-of-control administrative state coopted by stakeholder capitalism.  The rich run the government now.  Your government is now against you because it is for them.

These people are bad and any policy they put forth will be destructive.  This is why the green policy of the radical left is malign.  It is promising way too much with dishonest science.  Look at Net Zero Europe and the profoundly dangerous energy situation they are in.  Renewables can’t run modern economies.  They can’t with the physics, the economics, and the psychology.  I don’t have time to give you the facts.  The facts are out their if you are skeptical and call out bullshit.  Believe me when I tell you these lies and promises are reckless and dangerous.

I am doing permaculture farming which is supposed to save the planet and provide people a good life.  I have solar and it is supposed to give me clean power with a good green feeling to boot.  This is a lie.  Permaculture does not add up economically.  I do it for different reasons because I can and I love it.  I have solar power with a battery.  I have this because if the grid goes down, I want lights and to keep my food cold.  When you consider the cost it is way over priced but I am a prepper so a small system is vital.

I am a green prepper that hears the thunder of danger ahead.  I know what is coming from 2 decades of daily research.  What is ahead is ugly.  I have invested to be ready for something that is very difficult to prepare for.  My solar that I spent lots of money on is inadequate to even come close to powering what I do.  Even my firewood is inadequate considering I need fossil fuels to process the wood and make it ready to burn at the amount I need.  Still permaculture agriculture, solar, firewood, and good old fashion commons sense of prep has me in a better position than most.

We are barreling towards an ugly situation with energy, food, and water.  Social breakdown is already evident because the bad actors are pushing social change with cultural Marxism.  Cultural Marxism primary goal is to destroy society to build it back better.  They want a struggle sessions to break peoples will.  Most of all cultural Marxist want to destroy the family and create state dependence.  They want you to own nothing and be happy.  The happiness they offer will be forced upon you with fear tactics and lies.

The uni-party and its administrative state are hell bent on taking power so they can force through policy that benefit them.  They are using the promises of green and comforts of state give aways to entice the feeble minded and uneducated.  They are giving stuff away to those they can coopt.  Nothing is free.  This is a recipe for an ugly outcome and one that will lead to a brutal reality check. 

I know how nefarious these people are because I once embraced many of their ideas.  In the 80s I embraced globalism and sustainable development.  I know their lies because long ago I was one of the pioneers of their ideas.  Honest science and an understanding of history has shown me globalist polices are a failure.  We are stuck with these polices but we do not need to double down on them.  We need to move away from them.

We have a perfect storm of converging negative realities at work.  This is on multiple planes of reality.  This is social, economic, and systematic.  It is with physical and abstract.  It is with the planet and its ecosystems.  It is above all about meaning.  This is the reason I preach constantly about spirituality.  This is a time of spirtual poverty.  This is the end of meaning from an earlier social narrative.  An explosion of new meaning is at hand as the lies and promises evaporate with empty plates and cold houses.  Do not trust the government to take care of you.  They are sold out to the elite class who are hell bent on the fourth industrial revolution and its social great reset.

I have elaborated on all this in earlier posts.  There is so much to all this.  The facts needed could fill a book.  I encourage you to read as many books as you can that call into question these lies.  I don’t have time to explain this on this bog.  I have been completely honest with you.  I am not advertising or asking for money.  I am leading by example actually walking the walk.

You can criticize this lack of facts from me but I don’t care.  You should trust me because I am genuine.  I am doing permaculture and green energy because this is what a green prepper does.  I research current events daily.  I study the science of life.  I am most of all talking about the spirtual and attitudes that are the real power in your tool box of survival.  I am telling you to embrace stoic and spartan living now as conditioning for what is coming.

The other option is to enjoy the false sense of security and temporary enjoyments of modern life if you are lucky enough to have them.  Billions don’t have that but I am speaking to relatively affluent westerners.  I am not worthy to speak to the poor nor is that realistic for me.  To the relatively affluent westerners I am telling you there are two doors in front of you.  One is reality of a stoic change and the other is the door for the cavalier who is dancing by the cliff.

I am walking the walk so I am telling you about my experiment.  If you want to live in denial while the world still allows it, go ahead.  Denial and repression are not the substance of meaning but they are an option for some.  Most of the time this is with those incapable of understanding reality.  I am referring to children.  If you want to remain a child that is fine.  I can’t do this because I find meaning and personal honesty the highest of values.  This requires me to embrace reality as it is presented to me even if this means discomfort and anxiety.

I am not sure about the time frame for this ugly.  It has started though so the really bad can’t be far off.  The bad is evident if you call out bullshit that is human nature when it corrupts.  The leadership of the world is now against you because the good has been bred out of the system.  A group of inbred psychopaths are in charge.  Physics and economics are now a negative force to your lifestyles.  Reality is coming home to roost.

Now the good because I preach pessimistic optimism.  I love incongruous juxtapositions.  I love paradoxes.  I find so much meaning in them in this age that is tipping over.  This is what you need to know.  It is a keystone attitude.  In an age tipping over that which is wrong is right.  I am not talking about universals of right and wrong.  I am talking about reality and survival within a societal narrative.  The wrong that is right is about the story.  I am talking about common sense.  Common sense is different in a decline process than in a growth process.  Even though the two are intertwined it is the power of an age that is the defining characteristic.

This is now the age of decline and decline means different meaning.  Meaning is the path to truth.  The truth can only be approached.  Ultimately it takes a proper spirituality that results in wisdom of how close to the truth you should attempt to go.  What I mean by this is the human virtues of sobriety and humility are of the highest importance.  Knowing how much you need to know and how much you need to try to do is a critical disposition.  This is about knowing your limitations.  Knowing your limitations and being honest about finding true meaning is the best policy in this time of decline.

The good in the bad and ugly is the hope that this coming existential crisis is actually better to happen sooner than later.  I say the hope because the outcome is far from certain.  The doctor is ordering some strong medicine that is going to do a lot of harm but it may save you.  Many are not going to be saved and some will die.  Others are going to be disenfranchised.  Their good lives are going to become tough lives.  The club the elites are in will shrink too.  This actually will be the real battle space ahead because this is where the greatest overextension is.  Elites will turn on each other as their world collapses.

If you are reading this and an elite then you should be very worried.  I define an elite as one who is located on the right side of the bell-shaped curve of affluence.  It is far better to already be downsized in affluence on the left of the curve.  The uber elites will be facing the many more numerous lower-level elites.  This will be a classic Middle Ages fight of the nobles vying for power and riches.  The smart ones will be those who go willingly into the serfdom of modest living.  Do it now and beat the rush.

This medicine of a new reality will trickle up.  In the previous growth process era, reality trickled down but in this decline process era shit will actually run uphill because it will have accumulated down bellow already.  As in all previous civilizations that collapsed the elites will eventually get their judgment.  You can avoid this by embracing some basics of common sense.  In a time of decline this avoidance is based on humility and sobriety with all matters.

The good is for those of you who hear the thunder and start your green prepping journey.  I have been preaching this for years now.  Unfortunately, the era of bountiful products and cheap money is over but some of you still have a chance to invest wisely.  All of us can make psychological and spirtual changes to prepare.  This is by far the most important aspect of the good side of the bad and ugly.  It is harsh medicine of reality testing by those who smell the bullshit and act accordingly.  This is about downsizing now and beating the rush.  Downsize with dignity that comes with meaning.

If you read my stuff, you will see I am redundant but I am a moving redundancy adapting to changes.  What I mean by this is I am living this life of green prepping and staying tuned into where reality is going.  So, if I am redundant, it is adapting in response to developments.  I have actually been pretty good at forecasting these developments. 

On the downside for me personally I have been a head of the pack which means I embraced decline early.  I probably would have had much more money now if I would had just invested in easy money living for the last 20 years.  Instead, I invested in green prepping which is a negative return in easy money times but one with physical safety.  All paper investment are now at risk.  Eventually it will not even make good toilet paper.

The good I speak of is embrace change sooner as we enter this decline process.  The bad actors of globalist governance and their radical army of the left are actually rapidly initiating a period of forced adjustment.  These actors are nefarious.   Many I would consider evil.  This evil is as in anti-life not the religious evil of Staten.  Most big corporations are trying to destroy you by commodifying you.  They are blood sucking and parasitic at this point.

I forecast the populist nationalists coming to power who will push for less government and more decentralization.  The administrative state of unelected bureaucrats needs to be deconstructed.  These people are overhead in a time of downsizing.  They are parasitic and will need to be rationalized down to a mimimum.  This includes the administration part of health care and education.  Health care and education are a racket now which is one of the most dangerous aspects of the decline ahead.

We are going to see localism where people have no choice but to take survival into their own hands.  This will mean permaculture and green prepping by default.  All those things I have been preaching and living are answers to downsizing.  Spirtual and phycological adaptation with stoicism, spartan living and ascetic principles will dominate because these things work in an era of decline. 

Remember what I said about incongruous juxtapositions and paradoxes.  These surreal things will be operatable in a time of decline.  You will be initially looking at the world with surreal glasses but over time reality will bubble up and what was once surreal will be reality.  Those people calling you a nutter and laughing at you will eventually be following you.  Just be patient and ignore your detractors. 

The good thing about the spirtual permaculture I preach is you will have patience because that is what sobriety and humility give.  It gives you the strength to be patient and see through the coming brutal time with courage.  Courage is one of those most vital of character traits that allows optimism of meaning in a time of destructive change.     

With World Gripped By Fertilizer Crisis, Biden Admin Clings To “Climate-Inspired Utopian Food-Production Fantasies”

MONDAY, MAY 09, 2022 – 07:30 PM

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,


Samantha Power: ‘Never let a crisis go to waste.’ Do the World Economic Forum and China agree?

“Fertilizer shortages are real now.”

Uttered by USAID’s Samantha Power in a May 1 ABC interview with former Democratic advisor George Stephanopoulos, the words briefly drowned out the din of the news cycle.

They were not unexpected to some.

Power, who served as U.N. ambassador under Obama, mentioned fertilizer shortages after weeks of hints from the Biden administration.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki repeatedly alluded to challenges obtaining fertilizer in recent press briefings. So did President Joe Biden himself in a joint statement with EU President Ursula von der Leyen.

“We are deeply concerned by how Putin’s war in Ukraine has caused major disruptions to international food and agriculture supply chains, and the threat it poses to global food security. We recognize that many countries around the world have relied on imported food staples and fertilizer inputs from Ukraine and Russia, with Putin’s aggression disrupting that trade,” the leaders stated.

In an April report titled, “The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity,” the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service acknowledged that “for agricultural producers around the world, high fertilizer and fuel prices are a major concern.”

While political rhetoric has often focused on Russia, the rise in fertilizer prices did not begin with its invasion of Ukraine.

An analysis from the Peterson Institute of International Economics shows that fertilizer prices have rapidly climbed since mid-2021, spiking first in late 2021 and again around the time of the invasion.

Industry observers have pointed out that commodity prices are not solely affected by Vladimir Putin.

Max Gagliardi, an Oklahoma City oil and gas industry commentator who cofounded the energy marketing firm Ancova Energy, told The Epoch Times that the war and sanctions have helped drive the upward climb of natural gas prices in Europe.

A worker walks at the Yara ammonia plant in Porsgrunn, Norway, on Aug. 9, 2017. (Lefteris Karagiannopoulos/Reuters)

Natural gas is used in the Haber-Bosch process, which generates the ammonia in nitrogen fertilizers. Those fertilizers feed half the planet.

Gagliardi thinks the picture is more complicated at home, where environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) has become a controversial tool of stakeholder capitalism, often used to force divestment from fossil fuels or other industries disfavored by the left.

“It’s a combination of record demand domestically and from LNG [liquid natural gas] exports combined with less than expected supply, in part due to the starving of capital for the O&G industry due to the ESG/green movement pressures on capital providers, plus pressure from Wall Street to spend less capital and return value to shareholders,” he said.

Language from Power Echoes Green Activists, EU, WEF

In the case of increasing costs for oil, natural gas, and coal, some politicians and green activists have argued that those fast-rising prices mark an opportunity to accelerate a move from hydrocarbons to wind, solar, and electrification.

“Big Oil is price gouging American drivers. These liars do nothing to make the United States energy independent or stabilize gas prices. It’s time we break up with Big Oil and ignite a clean energy revolution,” Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) said on Twitter in March.

“I say we take this opportunity to double down on our renewable energy investments and wean ourselves off of planet-destroying fossil fuels[.] Never let a crisis go to waste,” said former Joe Biden delegate and political commentator Lindy Li in a Twitter post about ExxonMobil’s exit from Russia’s Far East.

Meanwhile, Mandy Gunasekara, an environmental lawyer who served as the Environmental Protection Agency’s chief of staff under President Trump, said in an interview with The Epoch Times, “It’s always been part of their plan to make the price of traditional energy sources go up, so then wind and solar could actually compete with them.”

Describing how fertilizer shortages could actually help advance a particular agenda, Power sounded much like Li.

She even used an identical phrase: “Never let a crisis go to waste.”

Intentionally or not, this echoed a line from another high-profile Obama alum, Rahm Emanuel: “Never let a serious crisis go to waste.” Emanuel was talking about the 2008-2009 financial meltdown.

“Less fertilizer is coming out of Russia. As a result, we’re working with countries to think about natural solutions, like manure and compost. And this may hasten transitions that would have been in the interest of farmers to make anyway. So, never let a crisis go to waste,” Power told Stephanopoulos.

Power’s language of setting crisis as opportunity parallels similar statements from environmental groups.

Writing to EU President von der Leyen and other EU bureaucrats, a group of European and international environmental organizations urged the union to stay the course on environmental policy.

“The crisis in Ukraine is yet another reminder of how essential it is to implement the Green Deal and its Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies,” the letter states.

The Farm to Fork Strategy confidently asserts that its actions to curb the overuse of chemical fertilizers “will reduce the use of [fertilizers] by at least 20 percent by 2030.”

“Ploughing more farmland, as is currently being put forward, to grow crops for biofuels and intensive animal farming by using even more synthetic pesticides and [fertilizers] would be absurd and dangerously increase ecosystem collapses, the most severe threat to social-ecological stability and food security,” the activists’ letter argues.

“The European Union must tackle the current challenges by accelerating the implementation of its strategies to reduce the use of synthetic pesticides and [fertilizers], to preserve its natural environment and the health of its citizens.”

Numerous publications from the World Economic Forum (WEF), known for its role in orchestrating the global response to COVID-19, have made similar arguments.

2020 white paper from WEF and the consulting firm McKinsey and Company warns of greenhouse gas emissions and potential runoff from fertilizers, advocating for an end to fertilizer subsidies in developing countries and praising China for its efforts to reduce fertilizer use.

2018 WEF white paper, co-authored with the consulting firm Accenture, claims that “a 21st century approach to organic farming” should strive to close the gap in yields between organic and conventional farming.

WEF’s vision of 21st century agriculture comes into greater focus in another 2018 report titled, “Bio-Innovation in the Food System.”

It advocates for the bioengineering of new microbes to fix nitrogen more efficiently in plants.

“This offers the prospect of lowering and more optimally applying nitrogen fertilizer,” WEF’s report states.

WEF has also pushed the use of “biosolids”—in other words sewage sludge—as fertilizer.

Urine, it notes, “makes an excellent agricultural fertilizer.”

Gunasekara, formerly of the EPA, said that fertilizer overuse and runoff presents serious risks, giving rise to toxic algal blooms in the Great Lakes and the Gulf of Mexico.

However, “generally speaking, the farmers are very, very efficient with their fertilizer use. They have a built-in incentive not to waste something that is a high input cost,” she told The Epoch Times, adding that in her experience, industry and communities could work out positive solutions with regulators.

Heavy-handed restrictions, she argued, are not the solution.

The UK Absolute Zero report, produced by academics at top British universities, goes even further than some other reports in its opposition to nitrogen-based fertilizers and conventional agriculture more generally.

This photo shows sheep feeding on lush grass on the property of Australian farmer Kevin Tongue near the rural city of Tamworth in New South Wales, Australia, on May 4, 2020. (Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images)

It anticipates a phaseout of beef and lamb production, with “fertilizer use greatly reduced,” in order to meet net-zero emissions targets by 2050.

“There are substantial opportunities to reduce energy use by reducing demand for [fertilizers],” the report states.

It also envisions cuts to energy in the food sector of 60 percent before 2050.

That imagined energy austerity, with its many unforeseeable consequences for human life, apparently will not last forever.

The report claims that after 2050, energy for fertilizer and other aspects of food production will “[increase] with zero-emissions electricity.”

“A food crisis/famine advances the long-term goal of more centralized control of energy, food, transportation, etc., as advanced by the Davos crowd of the WEF. Governments must expand their powers to ‘handle’ crises, and that is what progressives love more than anything,” Marc Morano, proprietor of the website Climate Depot, told The Epoch Times.

Sri Lanka’s Organic Experiment a Stark Warning

Though Power’s remarks were consistent with talking points from Democrats, WEF, the EU, and similar factions, they came at a particularly inconvenient moment for advocates of organic fertilizer—Sri Lanka’s recent experiment with abandoning chemical fertilizer has plunged the island nation into chaos that shows no signs of letting up.

According to a 2021 report from the USDA Foreign Agriculture service,  Sri Lankan agricultural economists warned that a rapid shift from chemical to organic fertilizers “will result in significant drops in crop yields.”

The country has since had to compensate one million of its farmers to the tune of $200 million, as reported by Al Jazeera.

With food shortages now a reality, anti-government protests prompted Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to declare a state of emergency on May 6—the second in two months.

“[Sri Lanka is] now literally on the verge of famine, because they’ve had massive crop failures,” Gunasekara said.

A farmer prepares a paddy field for sowing in Biyagama on the outskirts of Colombo on October 21, 2020. (Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP via Getty Images)

“This administration wants to use this as an opportunity to push their Green New Deal-style farming tactics, which we’ve seen implemented elsewhere, that cause significant problems beyond what we’re currently facing from our farmers’ perspective and what consumers are going to be facing,” she added.

“Manure cannot compete with modern chemical agriculture for high yield farming that the world depends on,” Morano of Climate Depot said.

Rufus Chaney, a retired USDA scientist known for his research on sewage sludge-based fertilizers, echoed Morano’s skepticism about making up for missing chemical fertilizers with organic alternatives.

“There are not enough useful (and not already being used) organic fertilizers to change the balance of any chemical fertilizer shortages,” Rufus told The Epoch Times via email.

“Nearly all organic fertilizers are built on livestock manure and can only be shipped short distances before it becomes cost-prohibitive,” he added.

These realities underscore another apparent contradiction in green policy—even as climate activists push for cuts to chemical fertilizer use and greater reliance on organic alternatives, they are working assiduously to cull the livestock populations that provide manure for those fertilizers.

In Northern Ireland, for example, a newly passed climate Act will require the region to lose a million sheep and cattle.

The EU’s Farm to Fork Strategy even states that work on fertilizers will be focused “in hotspot areas of intensive livestock farming and of recycling of organic waste into renewable fertilizers.”

“For years we were warned that ‘climate change’ would cause food shortages, but now it appears that climate policy will be one of the biggest factors in causing food shortages,” Morano told The Epoch Times.

Bails of hay sit in a paddock containing a failed wheat crop on farmer Trevor Knapman’s property in Gunnedah, NSW, Australia, on Oct. 4, 2019. (David Gray/Getty Images)

He cited research suggesting that a move to organic farming in the United Kingdom could actually raise carbon dioxide emissions, as the decrease in domestic yields can be expected to boost carbon-intensive imports.

“What the Biden admin is doing is seizing on ‘crises’ to advance their agenda. Greta [Thunberg] famously said, ‘I want you to panic.’ Because when you panic, you don’t think rationally and calmly, and you make poor choices. The only way they can sell these climate-inspired utopian energy and food production fantasies is during times of COVID crisis or wartime crisis,” he added.

China’s Role Scrutinized

Still, others see the focus on Russia as a distraction from China’s maneuvering on the world stage.

In 2021, China limited exports of both phosphate and urea fertilizers. The country has also stepped up its fertilizer imports.

China’s export restrictions came after it rapidly emerged as “the most important and most influential country in the fertilizer business,” according to an outlook document from the Gulf Chemicals & Petrochemicals Association.

The Peterson Institute’s analysis shows that as global fertilizer prices shot upward in 2021 and 2022, China’s fertilizer prices mostly leveled off.

Although the USDA’s April report did note the impact of China’s fertilizer export restrictions and heavy fertilizer imports, its executive summary drew greater attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

That summary did not mention China by name among the “countries imposing export bans and restrictions.”

Stanford University’s Gordon Chang, a China expert, warned on Twitter on May 6 that China has been “buying chemical companies whose products are needed for fertilizer and, more generally, food production,” citing comments from onshoring advocate Jonathan Bass.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Chang and Bass for additional details.

China has also been buying up American farmland as well as ports around the world, including ports in the now-food insecure Sri Lanka.

Physicist Michael Sekora, a former project director in the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), told The Epoch Times that worldwide fertilizer shortages could reflect China’s long-range technology strategy.

A key element of that strategy, he argued, is undercutting the United States whenever and wherever possible.

“Our ability to produce food is very much under attack right now. Some people say, ‘Oh, it’s just a coincidence.’ It’s China,” Sekora said.

“China has been very strategic in making sure they shore up what they have and restricting access throughout the rest of the world,” Gunasekara said.

“When you have people come in that are very anti-development and anti-growth, China can put its finger on the global market, making it that much harder, and then try to use that as an example to exert more authority and have access to greater power.”

Pain Felt Around the World

“It’s been hectic,” said South African tobacco farmer Herman J. Roos.

Roos told The Epoch Times that fertilizer prices near him have jumped since the invasion of Ukraine, on the heels of steep increases over the previous year.

He was able to buy all the fertilizer he needs for this year before the latest price shock. Yet, he expects shortages of urea, monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and other fertilizers to strain a population of farmers already under significant stress.

Copper theft, lack of government support, and the ever-present threat of physical violence are all pushing Roos and producers like him to the brink.

Yet, for all the challenges in South Africa, Roos anticipates the fallout will be worse elsewhere in the continent.

“The economy will be hit harder in countries like Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—countries where your agricultural system is more focused on subsistence farming,” Roos added.

They and other sub-Saharan African countries are heavily dependent on South Africa for their food supply.

Roos prays food riots won’t come to South Africa. The country is still recovering from a wave of riots in summer 2021, prompted by the arrest of former South African President Jacob Zuma.

He does predict that some farmers in the country will go bankrupt.

Let the master gardeners foot the bill and do all the work, then show up to get in on the harvest. (StockMediaSeller/Shutterstock)

Back in the United States, Connecticut landscaper Adam Geriak does not yet face such stark choices.

He told The Epoch Times that fertilizer prices near him are up, in line with estimates a Connecticut garden store provided to The Epoch Times.

“I do primary garden work and use organic fertilizers, which primarily come from poultry manure,” Geriak said, adding that the price of poultry manure fertilizer may have risen too.

He does not think fertilizer price increases will have much of an effect on him. Yet, other facets of the current economic picture are worrisome to him as tries to manage his small business most effectively.

I’m having a hard time planning for the future because of the uncertainty, and I think other owners are feeling this too. In the previous two years, clients seemed to have open coffers. They wanted more projects done and there seemed to be a lot of money going around. Clients seem to be a bit tighter now, asking how they can save money on certain projects and such,” Geriak said.

“Being on the verge of a recession, and retirement accounts down may be leading to these issues,” he added.

The USDA report on Sri Lanka’s organic experiment states that the country’s government made impossible promises to different parties.

It informed farmers it would handle the cost of moving away from chemical fertilizers while telling consumers that rice on their shelves would not become pricier, all while attempting to realize environmental and public health benefits through a breakneck transition to organic fertilizers.

“If you put too much emphasis on environmental issues, and you ignore the very real impact that can have to people’s daily lives, it can have dire consequences,” Gunasekara told The Epoch Times.

“Unfortunately, we’re seeing it in the most dire of circumstances, which is a suppressed food supply. I think that situation is only going to get worse because of the rise in prices for fertilizers and diesel and everything else that’s going to make it harder for farmers in the U.S. to produce, then also globally.”

Josh, a farmer in Texas who raises small livestock, also believes things will get worse before they get better. He did not want to share his last name.

“I personally think that we haven’t even begun to feel the effects of inflation in our grocery store bills, because last year, the costs to produce were 1/3 to 1/2 the cost farmers and ranchers are having to pay this year. That cost has to be absorbed by the buyer to make it feasible for them to even continue,” he said in a message to The Epoch Times.

“My family is preparing now and stocking up our freezers and pantry because we are really concerned how bad it can get this next year.”

He estimates that fertilizer prices near him have increased 200 or even 300 percent, “dependent on what program you are running.”

The rise in diesel prices has hurt him the most. “Farm equipment runs on diesel,” he pointed out.

According to AAA’s gas price website, diesel in Texas is running at an average of $5.231, up from $2.820 a year ago.

“I can’t imagine how anyone would profit or sustain raising crops or cattle with all these price increases that effect your overhead,” Josh said, saying he has heard about other ranchers and farmers culling their herds to avoid losses.

“Food shortages are a great way to collapse the current system and install a Great Reset,” Morano, of Climate Depot, told The Epoch Times.

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