“The Soviet operation at Korsun did not result in the collapse in the German front that the Soviet command had hoped for, it marked a significant deterioration in the strength available to the German army on that front, especially in heavy weaponry, nearly all of which was lost during the breakout. Through the rest of the war the Red Army would place large German forces in jeopardy, while the Germans were stretched thin and constantly attempting to extract themselves from one crisis to the next.” wiki
I do not speak about saving the world but instead I speak to you the individual about your safety. I only speak to a few of you about what you can do. I am honest in saying what I offer is limited to rural people with resources of time, money, and experience. What I speak of applies to those who can find the right local and have the resources to fortify it.
Finding the right place is the key and having the resources less important. This was the case with the Germans that escaped the Korsun pocket. They got out with their lives. This will be a war for survival, maybe not with your life but with your way of life.
This will primarily be a spirtual war because it will be an existential focus on how you find meaning to the disenfranchisements ahead. Will you negotiate this decline in acceptance or bargain in denial that this time of crisis is not the time of a collapsing world order?
You can manage breakouts from what is going to be one crisis after another from here on out. The war will be lost meaning every one of us will be poorer soon but you can win the battles in a retreat-in-force. This is a journey of spirtual meaning which must be properly engaged because it is only with meaning you will find courage and it is courage that will see you through.
I rarely give specific predictions but I will now say boldly hold on to your seat going into 2023. Nearly all the variables of systematic fracturing are present. Food, water, and energy are dangerously affected. With the abstract of the system that supports us we have economic decline, failing logistics, and dysfunctional government. This will all combine in 2023 to create a firestorm.
This will be a mosaic with different areas experiencing differing degrees of decline. This is also not the end of it. From here on out as was the case for the Wehrmacht on the eastern front in WWII, this time will be one retreat after another in the decline of the basic affluence that has driven average annual growth over the last 2 centuries.
We are now positioned right on the tipping point heading into an age of decline. 2023 will be looked back on as the pivotal year. 2018 will be looked on as peak prosperity.
The follow is from David Korowicz’s 2018 paper “Beyond Resilience”. This is a foreboding look from the vantage point of the peak in 2018 for what is ahead and now apparent for 2023:
“…a failure of a global region or network of high centrality, such as the financial system, or global productivity (from a severe pandemic) can begin to shut down the global flow of goods and services. In such cases the possibility of irreversible global systemic collapse increases. In a high speed, Just-in-Time [JIT] economy, these processes can be very rapid. As societies and economies move along paths that tend toward further economic growth and efficiency, and solve problems by adding further complexity, the vulnerability will increase…Finally, as it is the systems and networks we depend upon that are themselves undermining our dependencies, our trajectory is marked by systemic lock-in. That is, we are locked into crisis-inducing dynamics which we will be largely unable to change. We should bear in mind that we did not design global civilisation, it self-organised. We do not understand it, except in parts; and we do not control it, except within niches. The more unstable the system becomes, and the more radical the surgery we wish to do to avert a crisis, the more we risk compromising the extant systems we depend upon.”
I would like to review for those of you who have the right stuff something I call green prepping. There are a few of you out in this big world who will be the pioneers of a new narrative. This narrative is common to us all from our collective past. This narrative will be locally unique in character and spirit.
This narrative will be a hybrid permaculture localism engaged in the simple but robust activity of gathering and harvesting biomass but within a decaying complex world. You will manage this transformation as you adapt to a life of less affluence. You will use affluence to leave it in a retreat-in-force.
This is about family, tribe (extended family and friends), and small community. It is about a spirituality of community embracing our mother which is the land we inhabit. It will sprout from places where niches of constructive growth will form in a system in destructive change. You will be scaled properly to manage the destructive change ahead. You will be the few but not the elite.
This is not elitism because you will possess a humility of purpose. Nature will support your humility because this is the way. You will go forth on life’s behalf having become awakened.
It is now clear this global civilization is locked into a decline. Green prepping is a hybridization of growth and degrowth for the individual to negotiate this decline. It is about knowledge and wisdom of old but also new. There will be attitudes of triage and salvage to sort through what is needed for your lifeboat.
This is about crisis and sanctuary but not refuge. Nobody is safe from the bottleneck ahead but there are those safer and you can be one of these brave souls. You will protect you family and community with meaning because this is a spirtual war.
This narrative is about the physical world but connected to the metaphysical that has been so maligned by science and modernism. This is about connectivity in a time of drift. This may sound abstract but when you connect to the land in simple permaculture localism you open up the metaphysical world of meaning.
This metaphysical world is a fractal expression of life itself that will be expressed through you. It is here the power of life dwells. This will be a journey on planet in decline with a civilization self-destructing.
Your local scale will give you balance. This will give you vision to know better how to live in a world where meaning is breaking down. You will return to the basics of family, tribe, and community because history has shown us this is the best way for humans to survive decline. You will depart the cities for places of refuge. You will likely be near a city but far enough to manage the urban breakdown that is inevitable.
This narrative has two dimensions. The first dimension is the metaphysical with spirtual permaculture. The other dimension is with permaculture prepping. It is the combination of these that make a homestead and monestary a hardened target to the decline process. The situation we all are in is a building bottleneck. This bottleneck is from a complex system breaking down.
If you get preoccupied trying to understand this you will only get distracted. If you accept that this is a lock-in to decline then mental energy can be directed to constructive action. This is all about action because permaculture localism is a tough life as it always was and will now be again. Learn your local history because what was once done on your land will be the marker for your journey.
This journey is not a rejection of all that was learned from our departure into the hubris of modernism. There are some very important truths to carry with you on the return to earlier ways of living. Since this is a lifeboat there is only so much of this valuable modern knowledge you can put on your lifeboat. This is where a deep wisdom is required that almost always will be about less things and knowledge in a world with too much of both. This is about forced simplicity but leveraged with meaning.
Green prepping approaches this as a retreat-in-force. This is a flexible retreat in the face of overwhelming forces of decline on all levels. Green prepping seeks an aggressive motivation towards simplicity. You will attack with more complexity at times to break out of the pocket you are locked into. You will seek defensive simplicity in a world locked into a failing complexity.
Simplicity is required for the decline process because the breakdown of a complex system is always about an existential simplification but since this is a time of complex systems, complexity will have to be in your tool box. It is the proper mix of simplicity and complexity that is the key. It is also critical you understand this is also the proper mix of your spirituality with the available science you will need to physically adapt.
How you evaluate your local decline limitations is critical. It takes meaning to see this but also skills to implement action. I can only give you generalities because this is uniquely local in expression. Your spirituality is unique and personal so all I can say is green it up and include prepping with your own personal journey of meaning.
This is about forced degrowth which means complex technology and networks will undergo abandonment. This decline will hopefully be over time so do not panic. There will be consequences with increasingly dysfunctional networks that you have come to rely on. Understand the consequences so you can have a plan of action. Widespread irrational behavior is a result of this breakdown. This surreal condition will require a special focus to avoid the dangers of the many reefs that luck in the dark waters your lifeboat will be journeying on.
This breakdown will promote more irrational behavior and you will want to avoid these false promises. This is a perfect storm of reinforcing bad behavior combined with forces of a system decline. This is a convergence. This converging becomes a vortex of cascading problems forcing more bad behavior. Looking at this in a simple way. It advisable to stop digging when in a hole. The key is to realize the hole you are in. This is local so the nature of your trap will vary.
A retreat-in-force is a way of being ready to stand ground as needed to protect ones retreat into a defensive simplicity. Simplicity is the only logical reaction to a complex system breaking down but this must be done realistically and relatively or else you just become part of the route of complexity. Action is needed but measured action based on your limitations. Know your limitations and be humble and accepting about this.
It must be recognized that the breakdown of a complex system frees up niches of growth that need to be aggressively embraced. This means your homestead need to beef up its systems and supplies if you have a good local. You will grow if possible, with growth that has value to oppose entropy in all its forms. This mirrors the life system where niches are exploited by species when an ecosystem enters the succession of decline.
This retreat-in-force needs to also yield and retreat flexibly. Utilize strength to slow and delay the effects of decline. Decline will come at you from all angles. To avoid becoming disoriented, you first need to embrace the process. What this means is a proper dematerialization and decoupling but in a realistic and relative way. The retreat is dictated by circumstances so voluntary simplicity is adapted. This is an offensive simplicity. Offensive simplicity means embracing simplicity as a goal with complexity when it fits. The wisdom of insecurity will guide you with this.
This wisdom may appear convoluted but when you embrace the decline process with humility then you connect to the forces of the planet and life. When you do this your spiritually will have a natural adaptation instinct that is supported by the force of change. The planet and life system actually support you because you flow with its current instead of against the flow. This is where denial and acceptance must be understood. Those in denial will dig their hole deeper. Those in acceptance will stop digging.
This effort becomes one of instinct removing some of the debilitating effects of fear. Fear is healthy but the fear of fear is where action is diminished by loss of courage and clear thinking. Panic never ends well so embracing insecurity is a must. There is a wisdom to this that must become ingrained in your unique spirituality. This is not about reinventing your existing spirituality it is about adaptation.
I would compare this to an offensive defense. You may need to attack to gain a defensive position. In green prepping this means even though you are green you will utilize the unsustainable resources of technology and fossil energy as needed to strengthen your efforts to go local and embrace permaculture.
Here permaculture is defined as efforts to utilize local biomass in a simplicity relative and realistic to the nature of your local. This is why postion is so important. In war postion is essential. This is a spirtual war as well as a physical one. The attrition of entropic decay is unstoppable but can be slowed. Positioning is all important.
This means a retreat-in-force should include more advanced technology and fossil energy as needed and available. This is done even though biomass and the appropriate technology of low or no tech is the goal. Since we are in a technological fossil energy world, you will need to utilized them to leave them. Technology and fossil energy value must be utilized but with a wisdom that balances the damage they do to resilience and sustainability.
This is about understanding this is a Catch 22 but with options better or worse. This effort is about triage, salvage, and hybridization of these seemingly incongruous juxtapositions. This is an opportunistic effort where you seek a microclime of relative safety. This means offensive action in a general retreat.
REAL Green is about relative and realistic efforts towards permaculture localism. Growth is needed to degrowth. This mirrors the ecosystem when in succession. Species exploit niches where opportunities for growth are but this is done defensively because overall the system is decaying.
Decay must be the operative quality to your wisdom. Growth is needed to embrace degrowth. The wisdom of this means a downsizing of potential. Be very discriminating with any growth you choose.
This is an adapted simplicity because it is an adaptation with simplicity for a place a self-organizing complexity has put you. Simply growth is easy. Degrowth is not easy and will cause much dissonance. This will be painful so have no illusions about the pain ahead.
The current human narrative does not recognize this macro force of degrowth. Even where limits to growth are acknowledged in our current narrative the solutions are a delusional hole digging effort at more complexity and resources. Voluntary simplicity here is about acceptance of something not fully recognized nor accepted but well enough understood as a building failure of all the systems we rely on.
In some circles the opposite is being attempted to what I am recommending. These are the disciples of the Great Reset. These disciples are anti-life and will be eliminated by life’s forces but not before much collateral damage. It will be these people you will want to avoid at all cost. These are the radicals of the left that have embraced technocratic concentration of power with centralization of the destructive forces of humanism that are destroying our families and communities.
Modern greens might talk about degrowth but what they really want is more centralization and technology camouflaged as degrowth. These are Marxist lies that are the technocratic urge to more control. Unconsciously and in mass formation psychosis they are in denial of the decline process. This is a scam-demic of one delusion after another. This is the subterfuge of the elites for their own survival not yours.
The decline process requires acceptance and humility which is embracing the insecurity of decentralization. The administrative state must be deconstructed not grown. Cities must be depopulated not expanded. Technology must be made appropriate not advanced into higher complexity. All this is antithesis to the current narrative of the great reset the elites, technocrats, and radical foot soldiers of he left are embracing.
A wisdom of insecurity is needed to know what technology and knowledge to embrace and what to reject. This can only be found locally with small communities, tribe, and family. Currently the centralization of technocratic modernism in the great reset wants to eliminate the power of the people at the grass roots where people power is needed most. It is here where proper adaptation is possible. The top is completely lost in the urge to power that has always destroyed civilizations.
Civilizations always trend towards empire. This is a natural progression so the wisdom of insecurity accepts this instead of preaching utopian fixes. Mankind is in a constant state of war because of our dualism. This war is in our hearts too and comes from self-consciousness. Grace is the peace offered to those who are meek. Be a soldier but meek.
It is only through acceptance and humility that this existential war can be adapted to with finding value added growth increasing security. This is a lock-in so there is no transcendence only an awakening that is transformative. This is an embrace of a journey that is a lifeboat. It is more importantly a hospice of acceptance of the mortality of it all. It is only this aspect that will give courage in this time of loss.
I would recommend being prepped with energy, food, and water. These needs means embracing consumerism and technology while you still can. It is the proper embrace of these decaying resources that is key. There is so much good stuff available these days that can make a homestead a hardened target. Growth these items to degrowth in strength. Degrowth is about retreat but adapt this as a retreat with strength.
The spirtual aspect of this retreat-in-force is embracing the planet. It will lead you. Being rural is the best way to discover this power. Acceptance and humility have to be applied to everything you do. You have a nature and nurture that patterns your meaning. Everyone has a gut feeling for what is their truth. This must be adapted to the planet and the web of life in the decline.
Decreasing complexity is then embraced because this becomes your instinct to reality. You will reality test with these attitudes. The planet’s systems are in abrupt change and the web of life is in an extinction process. The richness of species diversity is now a poverty of loss. This is the keystone for what needs to adapt your spirituality.
In a commons sense way, you will need to beef up your spirtual meaning to maintain your dignity for the disenfranchisement ahead. If you do not feel good about the tough actions you are taking you will not have courage. Remember this is a war of attrition and entropy will win but how fast and how deep the decline has a huge impact. This is about degree and duration and this is the gold standard for an individual or species ability to be resilient to a crisis. Adapt degree and duration to be survivable.
The spiritually you will need is an existential incongruous juxtaposition. A paradoxical consciousness to what is right is wrong and what is wrong is the new right. This juxtaposition is not with universal morality. This paradox is with the current human narrative of globalism that is in overshoot. The consciousness of seeing through the narrative of what is considered the right way is what this embrace gives you. This allows you to see over the hill for what is emerging but not yet realized.
What this is about is an optimistic pessimism. The optimism is in the journey but the destination is decline and loss. Today there is the ingrained stress for an optimism of a manifest destiny of a human exceptionalism of greater affluence. We commonly hear failure is not an option. You see through this as bargaining with reality. The proper action in the decline process is about a journey into crisis on a well thought out lifeboat.
If there is optimism it is the courage and heroics that comes from meaning. Meaning is greatly diminished being in denial. This is the bargaining we do when caught up in the narrative of optimism. This is negotiating in denial. When this fails there is anger. Anger is wasted energy. Leap frog this directly into acceptance.
This is a journey that can only come from spirtual strength. Tech and knowledge must be treated with wisdom. Value embraced in regards to enhancing the journey. Affluence is embraced only in regards to the journey to increased simplicity. This is where the incongruous juxtaposition becomes apparent. A surreal vision of the path forward means declining affluence is apparent so what affluence is available gets converted to beneficial growth into more simplicity.