AL

I remember a discussion on the greatest existential threats to man back 13 years ago.  I was on the side of the peak oilers back then.  This was right around the time the shale revolution was sparking off which killed the peak oil movement.  AI was still fantasy.

I still believe in both peak oil decline and the associated climate disruptions, but these threats operate over long time frames.  Net energy decline is both economic and physics, meaning affordability loss and breakdown in complexity will sabotage growth of a growth-based system. 

Climate disruption will make farming more difficult.  I am not part of the climate cult but do believe you can’t transform the world’s systems both land use and byproducts of modern life and not expect change.

The discussion I mentioned had a scientist who told the group that artificial intelligence would be the most dangerous threat.  He was schooled by the peak oil crowd and listened to their predictions with acceptance.

Here we are 13 years later with the existential threats to civilization now focused on AI.  I do believe AI which I consider (AL) anti-life is the most dangerous path modern man is facing.  I believe this not because I feel AI will turn on us like HAL in the 2001 Space Odessey but because it will completely untether man from resilience and sustainability.

AI will turn on us in many ways through human deceit and corruption.  Cyber-attacks and breakdowns in the rule of law will occur.  In the military the combination of drones, robots, and AI will be especially menacing. 

Vital human systems will be at risk because of AI weaponized cyber viruses.  Advancements in dangerous science could cause uncontrollable disasters.

While our collective suicide is possible from the above, I feel the systematic implications to be far more dangerous.  A slow boil so to speak.  This is similar to a wild animal raised in captivity then unable to return to its original habitat.

Civilization is already in systematic decline because of the car culture and electricity are based upon growth and cheap energy which are in decline.  These could be walked away from with great effort.  Not so AI which threatens the very ability to do things through human agency.

 The car culture and AI are completely dependent on fossil fuels.  The recent failures of renewables to power the future cement this.  This was the last horizon of energy replacement.  Fusion is still a pipedream and require to many resource to build out.  Fission sources will deplete just like fossil fuels.

The car culture was already systematically in decline.  Now we are entering a new period where AI and its delivery systems will close the door and hasten the end of civilization.  I am not saying man will go extinct, but I do see a significant die-off coming because we can no longer provide the basics without modern life support.

Energy will at some point not support AI.  Just like the grid and all it supports, AI can’t lose power for a length of time without serious failure.  Net energy decline never sleeps.  If civilization vital systems become AI dependent the end will be sooner than later.

What am I doing?  I am living with this new complexity like one would deal with terminal illness.  You can’t stop these kinds of progress.  They overpower wisdom.  I define wisdom as the knowledge of what knowledge to keep and what to discard.

I am instead turning the other way and embracing nature and community.  While a real local community was still around in the beginning of the 20^th century it is very limited these days, I still remain open to its possibility. 

Nature is the way forward for those who embrace this decline process.  It may not save you but it will provide the meaning needed to navigate what is ahead.  The community of the faithful like small congregations and groups is the other necessary ingredient.  REAL Green embraces these basics.