REAL Green Adaptation

The idea of decline initiating a positive change is an important part of Real Green Deep Adaptation.  These principals need to be applied to global governance but they can’t.  This does not mean the what-ifs of Real Green Deep Adaptation principals applied to governance should not be discussed.   The purpose becomes understanding the predicament of human behavior we are in that points back to Real Green Deep Adaptation.   Responding accordingly leads to an individual response to center on restoration, relinquishment, and resilience which are the core of Real Green Deep Adaptation.

Restoration calls for honesty as the basis of human behavior as well as the restoration of scale through an individual’s local environment.  If this is projected to global governance then honestly acknowledging decline means more modest policy.  Spending and even talking about spending what you really don’t have is a failed policy longer term.  If all sides acknowledge decline then all those radical ideas on all sides that promote a false view of increasing prosperity will evaporate.  The results are a distilling out of better policy that will involve less but offer more value.  So honesty is the paramount policy but these days paradoxically honesty is a handicap.  Until the collective behavior acknowledges dishonesty both within and outside there can be no good policy.  Honesty applies to science and academia today with environmental policy since this is such a new and important force.

Another important point is a mixed economy based on decline.  What is in the public good and what is in the interest of individual good?  There must be a balance to the individual and the public.  The public good in a time of decline must focus on social harmony and good longer term fundable investments.  The individual good must be protected to promote productive individual effort.  A mixed economy based upon the better of each approach needs to be addressed to avoid extreme of either.  This points to “less” starting with those who govern.  Currently governing has become a springboard to affluence instead of service.  As long as those who govern now seek to get wealthy then our governing bodies will be corrupted.  This includes the corporate governance which today is blurred in arrangements of oligarchy and dictatorship. 

A second aspect of a mixed economy concern the planetary side of the equation.  We cannot fix what is broken especially when it is human behavior to begin with.  You can’t make a culture green that is based on growth in a time of decline you can only reduce the bad of it with adaptation and mitigation.  You can’t promote affluence with a green lipstick.  The only way to increase green is to lower affluence with less choices and less goods.  There are consequences to less with a system that requires growth and that is further systematic decay.  Honesty acknowledges degrowth and its nasty consequences both intended and unintended.  No pain no gain plays a part.  At the individual level less can increase resilience by an orderly downsizing of what is a macro trend of decline.   What is worse honest decline or dishonest affluence that is decline?  Honesty is always better this is especially critical for the individual.

Resilience starts with the restoration of honesty and in a time of declining prosperity involves relinquishment.   This then points to a key reality of Real Green Deep Adaptation.  The system is beyond this kind of proactive change and in tandem the public is without the capacity for this kind of change.   A crisis point changes this equation.  The crisis point of public change increasingly is likely at a systematic bifurcation point.  The short term benefits will always trump the longer term good when the local meets the global in a time of decline.  Individual success through wealth creation and accumulation will always trump better individual behavior in support of the public good in decline.  The important point is in a time of declining prosperity then we can expect dishonesty as human nature.  When prosperity is increasing the public good can be funded with an easy honesty.  We are in a time of difficult honesty.  This is called survival and it is an instinct of life. 

This human predicament then becomes call to be a beacon.  The Real Green Deep Adaptation beacon focuses locally and with your significant others.  This realization of decline then offers you a radar to yield to destructive forces.  It also offers you stealth by using the system to leave it.  Actually advancing your local through the principals of Real Green Deep Adaptation makes the overall system better.  Multiple grass root efforts at restoration, relinquishment, and resilience makes the entire planetary system including the human system better.  The top is hopelessly corrupt so if you are seeking meaning then you will stop looking outside your local for answers.  This does not mean abandoning your responsibility as a citizen it just means rejecting those parts of the process that impact your personal efforts at Real Green Deep Adaptation.  You remain an active citizen that calls into question the entirety of the status quo in regards to increasing affluence at the same time you use the status quo to improve your local.  This activity is then about triage of the bad and a hybrid of the old ways and utilization of the best of the modern.  Our destruction of the planet in the pursuit of growth and knowledge has found many best practices.  Not all is bad.  Take these hard-won truths and apply it to the old human ways that humans used to survive for centuries.

REFERENCE ARTICLE

“The management of hardship”

https://tinyurl.com/y4l7dcae    surplus energy

“GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS IN AN AGE OF DETERIORATING PROSPERITY…The first of these is the insanity which says that no amount of financial recklessness is ever going to drive us over a cliff, because creating new money out of thin air is our “get out of gaol free card” in all circumstances…The second subject is the very real threat posed by environmental degradation, where politicians are busy assuring the public that the problem can be fixed without subjecting voters to any meaningful inconvenience – and, after all, anyone who can persuade the public that electric vehicles are “zero emissions” could probably sell sand to the Saudis…the third issue, the tragicomedy that it is contemporary politics – indeed, it might reasonably be said that, between them, the Élysée and Westminster, in particular, offer combinations of tragedy, comedy and farce that even the most daring of theatre directors would blush to present.”

“The first is that prosperity issues have risen higher on the political agenda, and will go on doing so, pushing other issues down the scale of importance.  The second conclusion, which carries with it what is probably the single most obvious policy implication, is that redistribution is becoming an ever more important issue. There are two very good reasons for this hardening in sentiment…The need for redistribution is reinforced by realistic appraisal of the fiscal outlook. Anyone who is aware of deteriorating prosperity has to be aware that this has adverse implications for forward revenues. By definition, only prosperity can be taxed, because taxing incomes below the level of prosperity simply drives people into hardships whose alleviation increases public expenditures.”

“With prosperity – and, with it, the tax base – shrinking, promising anything that looks like “tax and spend” has become a recipe for policy failure and voter disillusionment. This said, so profound has been the failure of the centre-Right ascendancy that opportunities necessarily exist for anyone on the Left who is able to recast his or her agenda on the basis of economic reality.  Tactically, the best way forward for the Left is to shift the debate on equality back to the material, restoring the primacy of the Left’s traditional concentration on the differences and inequities between rich and poor.”

“This, it is to be hoped, can lead to a renaissance in the idea of the mixed economy, which seeks to get the best out of private and public provision, without pandering to the excesses of either. Restoration of this balance, from the position where we are now, means rolling back much of the privatization and outsourcing undertaken, often recklessly, over the last three decades.  Both the private and the public sectors will need to undergo extensive reforms if governments are to craft effective agendas for using the mixed economy to mitigate the worst effects of deteriorating prosperity.”

“First, a useful opening step in the crafting of new politics would be the introduction of “clean hands” principles, designed to prove that government isn’t, as it can so often appear, something conducted “by the rich, for the rich”.  Second, it would be helpful if governments rolled back their inclinations towards macho posturing and intimidation.”

“We cannot escape the conclusion that the task of government, always a thankless one even when confined to sharing out the benefits of growth, is going to become very difficult indeed as prosperity continues to deteriorate.  There might, though, be positives to be found in a process which ditches ideological extremes, uses the mixed economy as the basis for the equitable mitigation of decline, and seeks to rebuild relationships between discredited governments and frustrated citizens.”

I have been on the track of honesty about renewables for some time now.  Renewables are transformative not a transition.  The understanding of this difference is the key to the future.  If this is true then the key to the future is “Deep Adaptation”.  The reason Deep adaption is the key is the failure that will come with the integration of renewables and our inability to meet climate targets as a result.  The economic implications are a basis of this failure.  The Deep Adaptation agenda calls for resilience, relinquishment and restoration.    https://tinyurl.com/ya2jnu5z    “Deep Adaptation:  A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy.  The author, Jem Bendall, is more concerned with climate than the economy and energy.  Real Green looks at all three as a convergence of decline along with overpopulation and overshoot and it forms the basis of a platform that finds its home in the individual in a local with action that provides meaning.  The basis of the Fake Green message today is renewables are our salvation.  My Real Green platform says fake green is dishonest science when we honestly study all three decline convergence forces. 

Deep Adaptation calls for resilience which can be described as a combination of adaptation and mitigation of decline forces.  Relinquishment is a very important part of Deep Adaptation in my Real Green Platform because this is where the honesty comes in.  Fake Greens believe we can have our cake and eat it.  We can transition without losing affluence.  In fact fake greens say we will be more prosperous with more fantastic tech.  How often do we hear these days “energy is not a problem” from our Techno optimists?  Relinquishment means embracing less.  The key is less.  For proper adaptation and mitigation less must be central.  Systematically this is suicide for the status quo so if we do seek less affluence then we will see a bifurcating global system.  Of course that bifurcating situation is at the top and the top has no intention of less in fact it wants more.  The problem is a finite planet will give the top less eventually so beat the rush and decline now with less.  This means we must focus on resilience if we hope to adapt to less. 

Restoration is a key to both the natural and human and its focus is local.  The local must be restored with an alternative human footprint.  The mechanism is a hybrid of the new and old technologies but it is much more than technologies.  The key is behavior over tech.  This new human myth that is based on the old is about returning to a smaller scale with travel, consumption, and energy harvesting and gathering.  This is juxtaposition of the status quo that is delocalized, modern, and high performance based.  Real Green says collapse in place and beat the rush.  It says this is personal and with small groups.  It admits the top cannot be reformed except in niche areas and on the margins.  Competition and consensus means a diversity of ideas on solutions cannot be reconciled at the top.  The Paris Accord is a sick joke but completely understandable with Real Green.  Crisis of disequilibrium will hasten the pace of decline such that conflict will be yet another decline convergence variable.  Leave this process and go local as best you can in a delocalized global world.  Leverage the delocalized global to build your local while you can.  The delocalized global is robustly fragile meaning it is resistant to change until it shatters from its unsustainable needs.  There is not much time left to leverage this powerful force.

The behavioral key is relative sacrifice because of the inconsistencies of emotions that occur with acknowledging one’s oversized footprints with one’s ability to change.  Change what you can locally and with significant others.  This Real Green Platform is an add-on to your existing local and the meaning you get from your higher power.  What it does is orientates the planet and a new human behavior into your life system that will be locally based and with its primary concern being significant others.  Real green calls for salvaging what is around you and triaging out bad behavior and unneeded physical and mental distractions.  The key here is relatively or in other words the best you can because you will be torn apart with inconsistencies of being required to be in the status quo but being focused on leaving it. 

Real Green is about levels of awakening.  The highest level of course is getting to the point of building a monastery of knowledge and physical things to be seeds for a future.  The future is for someone else if the planet allows a reboot post collapse of modern civilization.  This also involves the relative again because the higher you become awakened the more humble you become much like a monks of old.  A Real Green monk would be a combination of an ancient shaman, Benedictines, and Taoism.  I covered the three because it is the synthesis of the three ways that is a road map to planetary harmony of the human sprit.  The humility comes from the power the planet will bestow on you.  This power is not traditional human power of control it is more power that meaning brings.  Once this meaning is used selfishly it is lost. 

Deep Adaptation principles in the Real Green platform of honesty and action is the key to the individual’s preparation for an uncertain future.  It is not a political platform that fits national or international goals.  It will not work at these levels.  It is meant for concerned individuals and locals as an orientation for behavior and tech.  It is about wisdom of what knowledge to use and most importantly in this culture of consumerism and vast amounts of knowledge, what not to use.  Real Green action will not save you but it will offer you a less bad way down.  Embrace it and find meaning. 

“Renewables Are Dead”

https://tinyurl.com/yyn7pbfv    automatic earth

https://tinyurl.com/y695nxsa    der Spiegel via google docs

“Over the past five years alone, the Energiewende has cost Germany €32 billion ($36 billion) annually, and opposition to renewables is growing in the German countryside. “The politicians fear citizen resistance” Der Spiegel reports. “There is hardly a wind energy project that is not fought.” In response, politicians sometimes order “electrical lines be buried underground but that is many times more expensive and takes years longer.”  As a result, the deployment of renewables and related transmission lines is slowing rapidly. Less than half as many wind turbines (743) were installed in 2018 as were installed in 2017, and just 30 kilometers of new transmission were added in 2017. Solar and wind advocates say cheaper solar panels and wind turbines will make the future growth in renewables cheaper than past growth but there are reasons to believe the opposite will be the case. Der Spiegel cites a recent estimate that it would cost Germany “€3.4 trillion ($3.8 trillion),” or seven times more than it spent from 2000 to 2025, to increase solar and wind three to five-hold by 2050.  A total expenditure of some $150 billion per year, every year from 2025 to 2050. On a rapidly failing project. Note: the numbers are “flexible”: just above, it says “Over the past five years alone, the Energiewende has cost Germany €32 billion ($36 billion)” , and seven times that is much more than $150 billion annually. Later in the article, the author says “Germans, who will have spent $580 billion on renewables by 2025 ..” General rule of thumb: it will cost much more than any estimate will tell you.  Between 2000 and 2018, Germany grew renewables from 7% to 39% of its electricity. And as much of Germany’s renewable electricity comes from biomass, which scientists view as polluting and environmentally degrading, as from solar.  Of the 7,700 new kilometers of transmission lines needed, only 8% has been built, while large-scale electricity storage remains inefficient and expensive. “A large part of the energy used is lost,” the reporters note of a much-hyped hydrogen gas project, “and the efficiency is below 40%… No viable business model can be developed from this.”  Meanwhile, the 20-year subsidies granted to wind, solar, and biogas since 2000 will start coming to an end next year. “The wind power boom is over,” Der Spiegel concludes.” s focus is loc�V`��N

The positive of this article is too little too late but restoration should still be part of the agenda.  Relinquishment is a much needed part of any footprint lowering agenda but this goes against sustainable development.  Sadly sustainable development is anything but sustainable.  What relinquishment means is stopping affluence in both the wealthy developed world and the poor 3^rd world.  Part of this braking on affluence would be disrupting global consumerism.  There are trends in global consumption that are not sustainable and definitely not related to the efforts of conservation for a lower footprint.  This braking of affluence needs to be in both the poor and wealthy parts of the world because this is the only way it will work.  The latest trend is the 3^rd world claiming they should be allowed to be rich too but this only ends any chance of lowering the impact of the destructive human footprint.  One needs only see what China has done to the world by its build out of a high consumption middle class which is the equivalent of the US population.  To make this work all sides rich and poor must cease and desist now.  The situation is such that no side can downsize without pain.  Just because the rich world is rich does not mean it has room to decline.  The systematics of this mean no side can take much more pain because of rigid boundaries of change. 

If nothing else we need to stop growth.  The problem with this is again the systematic side of growth that is now embedded in the system itself.  It is not clear how much degrowth either voluntary of not the system can handle and still survive.  This makes policy even more problematic if governments would even agree to cease and desist growth.   What we see any more is the corrupted wealth transfer of sustainably development to the poor parts of the world.  The reality is sustainable development is just exploitation though a late stage corrupt capitalism where the 3^rd world sees only small gains for a few wealthy elite and a siphoning off of the rest to corporate entities.  The poor remain poor and lately in a Chinese debt trap.  It used to be American and European traps but now it is mostly Chinese.

This then points to honesty that decline is inevitable and nothing can be done but deep adaptation.  We can increase reliance in the face of decline by adapting both materially but even more with behavior.  The key here to a manageable decline in the face of possible systematic bifurcation is behavior.  This can’t only be material.  In any case the likelihood of the corrupt global leadership making the right decisions is very low even once a serious crisis is upon us.  It will likely be conflict instead.  This then points to Real Green which take the approach of the individual pursuing personal Deep Adaptation.  This is the only real force of change that can mitigate the decline ahead.  Deep adaptation indicates a planetary awakening.  If enough people that can change do change then real change will be registered.  Even so this change will not be enough to matter.  It will just lengthen out the terminal nature of the coming decline and eventual collapse. 

This is where honesty comes in with behavior.  The top is not only unable to address change properly but the best minds are also in denial.  Many are in denial of the basic science we can call them orange after Trump who personifies this denial.  Yet, even our best scientist and academia are in denial with solutions.  The extremist fake green left think renewables are the answer and this is delusional.  The fake green left want their cake and eat it.  They preach green and affluence.  Renewables will help but they won’t save us.  The real issue now is squarely with behavior.  We have tech that can make things less bad but we do not have the behavior to properly employ tech.  This is why those individuals who are awakened and can change should change.  Not all awakened individuals can change.  It is vital those who can change take the plunge.  It is a plunge because it means a radical departure from the status quo.  It can be done in a relative way according to one’s ability both materially and mentally.  This is where Real Green comes in.  Practice relative sacrifice.  Do it locally and with relinquishment.  This means avoid the best you can the corruption of the status quo drive to a fake and unhealthy affluence through consumerism. 

Part of this change is restoration of the environment but also the building of monasteries of knowledge and tech for the coming dark times.  It is about lifeboats for those awakened.  These lifeboats should be local.  Forget about donating to global causes focus on your local.  The key is for awakened individual to have tools and knowledge for locals to adapt once crisis sets in.  This is also about hospices for the significant others of the awakened who will not make it.  This is about ending the denial of death that the unawakened sidestep.  Of course the success of this real green deep adaptation is dependent on the pace of this decline into collapse.  This process may have a degree and duration that even the good behavior of Real Green can’t adapt to.  In that case it is still heroic and meaningful to have tried.  If there is a silver lining to a Real Green in a complete collapse it is the meaning that comes with honest effort.

I have been following this Red/Green movement as a lightning rod for my REAL GREEN platform.  I am seeing the Red Greens run into inconsistencies with their Socialist calls to action.  They are honest with the science but dishonest with the results.  Basically my Real Green position is Eco honesty.  We can’t reform what we have and save the planet but we can do deep adaptations to mitigate the worst.  The fake green of the Red Green movement is a distraction from focused efforts.  The Red Greens will sacrifice all for an idea and in the end do more damage than good in my opinion.  The only way forward is managed decline and it appears the only managed decline can be properly applied locally and in small groups.  It means a hybridization of old and new technology.  It also means triage and relinquishment of assets and lifestyles.  It means collapsing in place in localism and thereby beating the rush.

The beauty of my REAL GREEN platform is it is an “add-on” to your existing political and spiritual positions.  I say “MY” but really it is many ideas from very smart people I have gathered together in my version of meaning.  I am not telling you to change what gives you meaning.  I could give recommendations because I have my own but that does not mean they will adapt to yours.  I am telling you to add-on REAL GREEN to your existing way of life.  Real Green calls for relative sacrifice that jettisons existential guilt as well as the blame game.  These emotions and personality tendencies just cloud the focus needed.  This call is not to say guilt and blame are not justified it is saying at this point they are fruitless uses of your energy. 

The focus needs to be on negotiating the unsustainable with technics that make you more resilient and sustainability.  This is only about “more or less” not “is”.  Relative sacrifice is the key because it “fits” you into the status quo as you attempt to leave it.  You are stuck with family, friends and community.  You cannot change them and you cannot leave them without dramatic efforts in many cases.  Often drastic actions have negative outcomes.  Some of the young and the lucky ones can make dramatic change and should.  They should because they can and the goal is ultimately meaning.  The status quo is meaningless so it should be left.  Science is telling us what is wrong.   Honest Real Green science says we are trapped.  Relative sacrifice says live your status quo life but with an ulterior motive that is Real Green of leaving it.

The ulterior motive is meaning.  The basics of intelligent human activity is meaning.  Our existential predicament of the duality of the ego drives a quest for meaning.  Many cannot attain this level and those who are within your group need to be supported with relative sacrifice.  Only 10% or less of the population is awakened to real meaning with many being followers, not smart enough, and or psychopathic narcissists.  If you are smart and awakened then you do not feel superior or you are not Real Green.  The reason being ultimately Real Green is planetary meaning not your meaning.  This means if you are awakened and ready for action you will have to do things that go against Real Green meaning because of relative sacrifice.  You have no choice but to be less than you could be because of your significant others or your compromised local.   A few can bug out and find remarkable meaning.  Those who can’t this means tiny steps with sacrifice. 

If you are going to lower your foot print then Real Green calls for you to sacrifice with less affluence.  The sacrifice also is with not lowering your footprint because of your family, friends, and community and this time the sacrifice is Real Green meaning.  You will engage in activity that makes you feel bad because it is meaningless.  You will feel like you are going against your Real Green values.  This is where you reflect on relative sacrifice to jettison guilt and avoid the blame game.  Ultimately Real Green is about planetary meaning found locally and with significant others.   Many of the significant others and your local will not be Real Green.  It then becomes your meaning to make meaningless a little more Real Green.

“Ecosocialists debate the Green New Deal (continued)”

“Continuing our discussion on the strengths and weaknesses of the Green New Deal proposal, and how the left should respond.”

https://tinyurl.com/y4lwpuo9    climate and capitalism

“Citing Vaclav Smil, Bernes states that replacing current US energy consumption with renewables would require at least 25-50 percent of the US landmass being devoted to solar, wind, and biofuels. Considering the encroachments on land by ranchers, farmers, timber companies, home developers, et al, it appears that capitalist growth—even made kosher by renewables—will hit a brick wall before long.  At the heart of the Green New Deal, there is a Sisyphean contradiction:  “The problem is that growth and emissions are, by almost every measure, profoundly correlated. The Green New Deal thus risks becoming a sort of Sisyphean reform, rolling the rock of emissions reductions up the hill each day only to have a growing, energy-hungry economy knock it back down to the bottom each night.”

“Without using the term “de-growth”, Bernes’s conclusion certainly is consistent with what Jason Hickel and others have written. I find it to be eminently reasonable:  “We cannot keep things the same and change everything. We need a revolution, a break with capital and its killing compulsions, though what that looks like in the twenty-first century is very much an open question. A revolution that had as its aim the flourishing of all human life would certainly mean immediate decarbonization, a rapid decrease in energy use for those in the industrialized global north, no more cement, very little steel, almost no air travel, walkable human settlements, passive heating and cooling, a total transformation of agriculture, and a diminishment of animal pasture by an order of magnitude at least.”

“In the DSA magazine for Winter 2019, Huber’s article “Ecosocialism: Dystopian and Scientific” took aim at the “de-growth” current within the ecosocialist movement that he described as a dire threat “to scare us into action.”  “Our dystopian future is seen as a product of industrial civilization. For many ecosocialists or left green thinkers, the science is so dire the only option is a wholesale rejection of industrialism This, I would argue, leads to some fanciful (even utopian) ideas of what comes next. Degrowth theorists imagine a ‘decentralized’ future society, ‘where resources were managed by bio-region—a participatory, low-tech, low-consumption economy, where everyone has to do some farming…’  “Richard Smith argues for a socialist program of ‘managed deindustrialization’ without fully explaining what that would actually mean. Last year in the New Left Review, Troy Vettese argued for austerity (or what he called ‘egalitarian eco-austerity’): the program includes energy rationing, compulsory veganism and turning over half the planet to wild nature (a proposal he takes from reactionary sociobiologist, E.O. Wilson).” un:yes’> 

I am advocating the above alternative renewable energy ideas in my Real Green platform. We must reduce the status quo of on demand and discretionary towards intermittency, seasonality, and low tech. Where low tech, seasonal, and intermittency can be adequate they should be applied. The current approach is anything more potent and efficient is applied when affordable and with debt these days so much can be afforded. The problem then becomes malinvested resources in systems without resilience and sustainability. Further the problem becomes expensive investments that then do not meet the requirements of return on investment that all debt must include.

Real Green starts with a localization. Energy intensity and availability can be modulated according to need. Localized efforts are easier to modulate but this does not mean centralized systems need be rejected. It is the application of both to their best comparative advantage that should be the focus. Critical systems could be well stocked 24/7 and less critical not. Other applications could be intermittent and seasonal based on price. The more intermittent/seasonal the less cost. Rural areas could return to a time not too long ago where power was not always there. These areas could be a hybrid off the grid with minimal baseline power. Biomass, solar, wind, animal, plus some fossil fuels could allow them to decouple to an extent. Transport likewise could be adapted to the value of need. Working environments and leisure adapted accordingly.

This is all fine in the theoretical but getting from here to there is really much more complicated because of the sensitivity that economies have to constructive and destructive change. A clear policy with economic support would have to be part of the effort. Education and the creation of a new social compact complete with a new narrative of value is a must. This all is likely too much for a system that currently can barely get along and agree on trivial matters.

This then points to small groups and individuals who are awakened and honest with the science of what is going on around us. There are many people for a variety of reason that can’t change and or don’t want to. Those who can should. It will be those who can and do that will blaze the trail. At the national level with governments and business there is an effort at change but one must realize this change is in context of the status quo. Instead of adapting to intermittency and lower energy density of renewables the effort is to make renewables adapt to the status quo as if the status quo in nonnegotiable. While these efforts to integrate renewables into the current energy systems are vital they are not the answer.

The answer is relocalization and deindustrialization of at least some parts of the status quo. This is counter to sustainable development that looks towards modernizing when the opposite is needed. It is possible there could be parts of our way of life that remain as they are now and parts that would return to an earlier way of life. The problem with this is corruption. The earlier ways of life are vulnerable to those who remain in the more potent modern status quo of 24/7 power on demand and consumption as needed. This then points to a social compact that would have to ensure the rights of people who voluntarily withdraw some or much of their modernity. It should still include resources such as education, healthcare, and security, etc.

If nothing else some need to make this change to provide the experimentations that will provide experience for greater numbers of people who may take this journey later once the need is mainstream. Governments should be at a minimum supporting some alternative communities or at least not inhibiting them with taxes, zoning, and negative economic penalties that come with not being status quo. The time is now and the necessity of it great. This will require sacrifice and lower physical reward but if done correctly provide meaning and actualization that survival strategies naturally enlist.

“COMMENT SOURCED”

The overwhelming problem with replacing fossil energy with renewable energy systems is the much higher embodied energy of renewable energy infrastructure. It takes a lot more steel and concrete to produce 1MWh of electricity from wind power than it does for nuclear power, coal or natural gas turbines. This makes EROI relatively weak. The reason for this is simple: the low power density of the resource. It is unavoidable, because we cannot change the nature of the resource. It is why I generally favour the expansion of nuclear power over industrial scale renewable energy, but as an engineer I look for ways of making both systems work.

Click to access 05-001-A_Material_input.pdf

It will therefore be very difficult to build the required capacity to replace existing energy consumption in an environment in which fossil fuel EROI is already declining. But there are some strategies that will help.

Making wind turbines and solar power plants bigger may be useful to a limited extent. Under equal wind conditions, bigger turbines require more materials per MW, because the mass of the turbine increases with the cube of height, but turbine swept area (and power) increases with the square of height. However, increasing wind speed with increasing tower height means that bigger turbines still come out ahead, but we can expect diminishing returns with increasing scale beyond a certain point. Solar power plants also demonstrate better EROI with increasing scale; so bigger is generally better.

Minimise the need for energy storage. Many renewable energy advocates assume that storage will eliminate problems of intermittency, by absorbing excess electrical power during times of plenty and releasing it during lulls in wind and solar power production. However, this strategy has severe problems because it implies further embodied energy and energy losses, in a system for which EROI is already weak. An energy store is basically another power station; absorbing intermittent energy and spitting out a smaller amount of controllable energy on demand. It takes money and energy to build it and maintain it and storage implies losses. A better strategy is to adapt demand to supply and to store end-use energy in limited amounts where it is relatively cheap; i.e. as hot and cold in suitably insulated containers. Labour laws and working arrangements need to shift such that people work when power is abundant and take time off when it is not. The problem can be further mitigated by using a mixture of different renewable energy sources over a dispersed geographical area, using the electrical grid to deliver the energy.

Renewable energy will struggle to meet existing transport and heating loads, because of the sheer amount of energy that they consume. To a limited extent, hybrid vehicles allow for modest amounts of renewable energy to supplement fossil fuels. A reduction in the weight and power of vehicles, the introduction of regenerative braking and generally a reduction in the number of private vehicles by increasing the capacity of public transport will all help. Generally, transport needs to shift to different modes that use smaller amounts of (preferably intermittent) energy. Hence my advocacy of bulk freight transport in hydraulic capsule pipelines, which are basically unmanned underground canals between two distant points. They propel large volumes of freight at low speed; can be powered by grid electric pumps (without any energy storage) or direct mechanical wind power. They can also vary their speed depending upon energy availability. Direct electric powered buses, coaches and trucks on highways can also absorb intermittent electricity using variable speed limits. They can transport people between motorway service stations, and shorter range vehicles can then transport them into cities or other specific locations. In these ways, transport is both energy efficient and works off direct grid electric power, without any losses or costs associated with energy storage.

Heat storage within homes and the use of ground source heat pumps; allow smaller amounts of intermittent grid electric power to provide heating, or even direct renewable heating from a wind turbine or solar heating panel.

There are other strategies that can be made to work as well. Wind machines can be simplified to provide direct mechanical power in niche applications. An aerial rope way is a crude but effective transport system that could be powered by direct mechanical wind energy in some specific applications. A wind turbine could also be directly coupled to a piston air compressor or a hydraulic pump and used to power equipment without the need for complex electrical generators or rare earth elements. Again, we are reducing embodied energy by eliminating complexity. Also, clusters of wind turbines can be used to generate direct hydraulic power that then powers a central ground based electrical generator. The turbines themselves would have few mechanical parts. The central ‘hydraulic power station’ would essentially be a hydroelectric plant without the dam. Huge flywheels could be coupled to its turbines to store limited amounts of mechanical energy prior to electricity generation.

We cannot avoid the shit that is coming. But lateral thinking will help. ��,��z

There are two aspects to my REAL Green Deep Adaptation.  One is the hardware and energy side of a hybrid energy gathering effort combined with efficiency and conservation.  The other is the behavioral side of adapting and mitigating decline.  On the behavioral side the emphasis is on systems dynamics as a guide to a collapse process.  There is the physics of collapse which is available across the web in multiple site locations.  There is no shortage to the science of collapse.  How to deal with collapse is less straight forward and often sensationalized and extreme.  REAL Green Deep Adaptation starting point is individual and local.  This does not mean uninformed and withdrawn, quite the contrary.  RG stresses proactive research on the process as a daily exercise.  Know what is happening in the greater world but keep local perspective.  Far too often we get absorbed into global events and lose our way locally. 

RG primary behavioral function is acknowledgement of the collapse process.  This does not mean collapse is inevitable and the reason for this is we are unable to know this with certainty.  It sees a collapse trajectory based upon scientific research.  The time line is unknown and the degree and duration uncertain.  The acknowledgement is more the understanding through systems dynamics that collapse is a normal process in ecosystems.  The positive side of this adaptation is a better life with or without collapse.  Also collapse may visit the younger generation and some of the older generation may never see collapse.  RG says collapse is and always has been a human reality it is just recently the idea has been censored. 

Looking at the human ecosystem we see classic examples of thresholds being approached.  The collapse process found in our current civilization then is a call to action for individual and local adaptation.  This action is twofold with one being the mentality of preparing for collapse and the other is the lifestyle of this effort.  The mentality seeks to incorporate the concept of sapience as the foundation of choosing what to embrace and what not to.  Often it is what not to in this world of overwhelming possibilities that is the most important.  Do not pollute your local and your individuality with clutter.  Cleaning out the deadwood of distractions and unneeded things is a daily exercise which requires emotional sacrifice.  The mentality of deep adaptation is one of relative sacrifice.  This is a condition of living already in a collapsed world and not.  It is about utilizing the status quo that is not collapsed to construct your bulk work against collapse that requires a way of life is collapsed.  It is a collapse in place and beat the rush mentality.  The dignity of this comes from respect, honesty and the resulting meaning.  Relative efforts are key because extreme measures of leaving the status quo will hinder your ability to leave it.  You must navigate a tricky way of life that embraces the status quo because of work, family, and citizenship but also the effort of collapsing in place that is contrary to the social narrative. 

Relative sacrifice also concerns the degree of embrace of conservation and efficiency measures in the cause of planetary health.  RG is planet oriented as a spiritual add on to your higher power but this must be done relatively so one does not upend one’s life in the status quo that supports and nurtures your RG effort.  Relative sacrifice says tailor adaptation efforts around your status quo meaning and individuals.  RG will vary in the degree of effort that maximize the enhancement planetary health.  It is planetary health that is the ultimate basis of an add on to your higher power. IOW your personal power springs from the ground bellow you and the life around you. 

The next step to the mentality of RG is hybridization through salvage and triage.  A RG effort seeks to combine the new and the old ways of living and does this by focusing on salvage efforts of utilizing what you have in new ways.  RG uses triage to eliminate those items that do not have long term use and do not contribute to a RG doomstead.  Some items are out of place in one local but not another.  Rid yourself of play toys but one RG local’s toy is another tools so this effort is relative.  RG says make all your equipment and structures focused on RG efforts.  RG leisure centers on the RG effort and focused on the local.  It is influenced by relative sacrifice so a compromise of sorts is reached.  Your family will push you into travel for leisure but show resistance by pushing local efforts instead. 

In regards to the old ways RG refers to efforts at lifestyles of pre-modern times before fossil fuels and modern machines.  These times were more survival based as RG must be considering our current collapse process.  We have a wealth of new ways and things the key is to triage out those with no future because of low durability and little value to survival in a collapsed world.  Horde those tools and knowledge of both the old and new but use RG wisdom to pick and choose and relative sacrifice to fit this effort into your status quo world. 

RG behavior leads into the bricks and mortar of your RG local.  Locality and individuality is the key here.  There is no set templet for this part of RG.  You are your own expert and your local should be the guide.  Find out what is healthy about your local and enhance it with RG wisdom.  Local efforts mean staying local in relative sacrifice.  Your family and community will push you to leave your local so balance this tension.  Eat and live local is your starting point.  Build a RG monastery both abstract and physical.  A library of knowledge and a shop of tools is the basis of this RG brick and mortar.  It is the brick and mortar that begins the process of harvesting and gathering of low carbon solar energy that is found in both the living and nonliving world. 

“Collapse: The Seneca Strategy”  A Book By Ugo Bardi

https://tinyurl.com/yybdv8va

https://tinyurl.com/y4j7pytk    doomstead dinner

“My second book on the concept of “Seneca Collapse” (or Cliff, or Ruin, or the like) is nearly completed and it should be available from Springer before the end of the year. It is a sequel to my first book, “The Seneca Effect”, but this second one is thought as more easily readable “trade” book.”

“I used “The Seneca Strategy” as a title because the book focuses on how to deal with collapses rather than on the physics of collapses. It proposes a strategy that’s based on the Stoic view of the world revisited under the lens of system dynamics. It is the idea that you don’t try to force systems to do what you want them to do, a concept that Jay Forrester termed “pushing the levers in the wrong direction.”

“Table of Contents    Six Things You Should Know About Collapse    Collapse: An Introduction    Models of Collapse    Models of the Future: The Russian Roulette    The Limits of Models. Nightfall on Lagash    Why Models are not Believed: The Croesus Syndrome    The Science of Collapse    Complex Systems: The Goddess’ Wrath    The Power of Networks: The Ghost in the Shell    Living and Dying in a Complex Universe. The Story of Amelia the Amoeba.    The Practice of Collapse    The Collapse of Engineered Structures: For Dust you are and to Dust you Will Return    Financial Collapses: Blockbuster goes bust    Natural Disasters: Florence’s Great Flood    Mineral Collapses: The Coming Oil Crisis?    The Seneca Cliff and Human Violence: Fatal Quarrels    Famines, Epidemics, and Depopulation: The Zombie Apocalypse    The Big One: Societal Collapse    Apocalypse: the collapse of the Earth’s ecosystem    Strategies for Managing Collapse    Technological Progress against Collapse. The Cold Fusion Miracle that Wasn’t    Avoiding Overexploitation. Drill, Baby, Drill!    Leadership Against Collapse: The Last Roman Empress    Collapse as a Weapon: The Iago Strategy    Deception as a Strategy: the Camper’s Dilemma    Life After Collapse: The Seneca Rebound    Conclusion: The Seneca Strategy”

Naked affluence is fake green.  Affluence cannot be made green by electric cars and huge homes with solar or efficient gadgets.  Tech and efficiency is part of Real green but not its meaning.  Real Green is about a smaller foot print that comes with less consumption but more meaning.  The meaning comes from wisdom of choice.  The choice is behavioral and this revolves around lowering your footprint holistically.  You can’t do the traditional efficiency routine of spending money to cut here and splurge there.  Being rich is the problem.  The opportunities of affluence cloud a green attitude.  A lower foot print means less consumption and more effort at capturing solar energy through harvesting of food and gathering of solar power though renewables but with lower consumption.  It is one of those paradoxes and revolves around something simple that is complicated.  The complications come from going against the grains of the status quo.  Most of all a Real Green attitude is about lowering your travel footprint.  Localization is the key.  For most people travel is their biggest earth impact.  Lower your discretionary travel. 

Real Green calls for relative sacrifice.  Since Real Green is an individual attitude of planetary adjustment to make it work you must adapt according to your place in the status quo.  Family, community, and work define you but you can adapt this relatively through Real Green sacrifice.  This means using Real Green wisdom to say “NO” mostly.  Reduce travel and consumption.  Make the travel you do more efficient by combining trips.  Green up your consumerism by buying products with a future and those with lower earth impact whenever possible.  Real Green is not about saving the planet.  You can’t save the planet because any effort you make is wiped away by actions of others.  This is about an individual effort of saving the planet locally.  Locally includes significant others.  Impact your family and friends but do it without confrontation.  Do it with stealth so they will not even know they are changing.  This is about making a difference under your feet and with those around you.  It is about withdrawing from the madness of modern life by focusing on the part of the planet you inhabit. 

There are a thousand ways to do this because of the diversity of various “locals”.  Locals are lives in location or living locations.  It starts from your local where you eat and sleep.  Relocalize because that is where you can implement Real Green.  The act of going local is an immediate green bonus.  It starts from there and the benefits accrue naturally.  Once you have done this attempt to harvest and gather solar energy locally.  It will not be profitable so you will need to continue your status quo life but this is the way you can make a Real Green difference.  It is not profitable because delocalization from a powerful system of globalization controls living through price advantage.  So, it is about a hybridization of the status quo of delocalization and the Real Green of localization.  This is the key to making a small difference that leverages Real Green.  Adapt delocalized globalism to your Real Green localization. Do it through relative sacrifice so you do not upset the status quo that feeds you. 

There are some among you specially gifted and placed who can go major Real Green.  I challenge some of the young who have yet to attach their lives to the status quo to make the Real Green plunge.  Once you have your career and family started in the status quo then it becomes a matter of relative sacrifice.  Major Real Green is also for those who are entering retirement.  Choose Real Green over traditional retirement options that are little more than play until you die arrangements.  Real Green is about Real Green focus (prayer), work, and Real Green leisure.  That is an adaptation of the Benedictine balance of prayer, work, and leisure.  The status quo will control you once you commit and decide on a traditional life being marketed to you.  If you are at that point in life you can leave it in a major way take the plunge.

Very few choose Real Green because it is a way of life like monks or warriors embraced of old.  Back then it was about deeper meaning.   Go back to that time of Real meaning.   Now Real meaning is about giving to the planet to save it in a very small way that your life represents.  If you fight for nature she will support you.  This happens because nature will return meaning to you and it is meaning that ultimately matter to humans.  Power and riches are the prison the ego loses itself in.  Once in that prison it is very hard to leave.  This is not about a new higher power although Mother Nature through Real green is a worthy higher power.  Take your higher power and attach it to Real Green like a farmer plants his seeds in fertile ground.  Walk a new walk that is an old walk some of our ancestors walked before the planet was corrupted by modern man.

When I was young and idealistic in the late 80’s I embraced globalism and sustainable development.  I was then aware of peak oil and climate change having studied them in collage in my geology and environmental electives.  I also took a great philosophy class given by a somewhat radical Jesuit who believed in fighting economic injustice of the 3^rd world.  I remember him asking us how many different types of food processors do we really need in reference to the then rapidly expanding consumer culture.  At the same time the worlds poor were rapidly growing in size and inequality.  I bought into globalism with time in Europe and eventually a Spanish wife.  I learned some German and Spanish and actually live those cultures.  I spent a year working in Germany as an apprentice at a construction company.  I was anti-American culture then.  I rejected the plastic suburban consumer culture of my world.  I avoided Americans and live European.  I found European culture intoxicating.

I am now against globalism after nearly 20 years of being a doomer and 15 being a dedicated prepper.  I am now a dedicated alternative living proponent I am pushing my REAL Green Deep Adaptation.  Prepping for possible societal collapse is part of this but the real push has come from understanding the energy and growth trap we are in.  This catch 22 trap means we can’t green decouple (Fake Green) and we can’t degrowth (True Green) with any measurable success for systematic reasons.  We are too far into technological development supporting population and consumption overshoot.  The planet is in human induced succession environmentally with all the worlds great ecosystems.  Planetary systems are being altered geologically and with climate.  The various planetary cycles and the web of life are negatively converging to alter the planet beyond the stable regime human’s growth accompanied.  Quality resources that allowed that growth are depleting.  Soils and water resources fully exploited.  All we can speak of positively is technology and the accompanying knowledge growth.  Yet, this is also the problem because this has not contributed to wise growth.   Humans are now in a late stage capitalism of anything profitable is exploited with increasing rapidity resulting in wealth and inequality and general population increases.  We have the technology and the knowledge but we do not have the behavioral control.  We can’t even get along which points to a population too large for human behavior to manage.  Our tribalism clashes with our drive to globalism. 

Globalism is likely the pinnacle of human productivity but also destructive change.  Humans will never match the current system of comparative advantage combined with economies of scale and global capital flows.  This combined with technology and consumerism.  Technology being the mechanics and consumerism the behavior.  We are not going to decouple from this and address planetary destruction especially because the destruction has already tipped systems into their own particular change dynamics.  Decoupling is preached as a way to grow without side effects.  Now tell me does that work with anything?  We now must live with consequences of our growth.  Decoupling will fail because the right combination of population and behavior is not present.  There is a point beyond which decoupling can work and humans have long since moved beyond that point.

 Degrowth is not possible without dramatic destructive forces of economic abandonment resulting in dysfunctional networks and irrational resulting behavior.  It is far easier to build systems up then degrowth them rationally.  This is especially true when human behavior for the most part is not up to the task.  We have Fake Greens and those who believe there is no need to degrowth to begin with.  These people actually believe more growth will solve are problems.  They want more economic growth and more population.  More ominously is the fact that most of the global population is incapable of understanding the issues to begin with.  Even those who can are delusional with the solutions.  Much of our academia and scientific best are part of this acceptance of the science showing the dangers but delusional with the solutions.  A very small percentage is truly awakened to the honest science.  We then have the nurturing in both industry and politics of pathological personalities of the extreme individual.  There flawed humans are running the show. 

Human behavior cannot degrowth in these circumstances because this requires sacrifice and likely severe pain as the deck chairs on the sinking ship rearrange.  In real degrowth people will starve.  The idea we can eat insects and turn the world’s economies into a mass producers of food energy from whatever makes the most for the most is a hoax.  Real degrowth is reduction in population and consumption both resulting in pain for systematic reasons.  You mess with a complicated system in a complex civilization and destructive change happens.  This pain is especially true because so much human activity should not have developed in marginal locations.  Tell me how that is going to sell anywhere?  This means human civilization will increasingly take the default of being driven into destructive change by self-organizing forces both human and planetary.  We will react with what we do best and that is more technology and more resources exploitation.  This is more of the same which as we know some of our best minds have called insanity.

My REAL Green Deep Adaptation says accept this circumstance and respond accordingly as our ancestors did back when life was precarious.  Then humans reacted locally and in small groups.  This is the Deep Adaptation.  The REAL Green is responding in a relative way.  Green is better locally and individually but Green has to be embraced carefully because the status quo is not green or it is Fake Green.  Late stage capitalism will swallow you up and spit you out if you take it on head to head.  You yield to the forces of change both human and planetary.  You make an effort to decline in place and under the radar of hostile forces.  You are generally defensive and occasionally when warranted offensive with extreme prejudice like any formable creature.  The offensive occurs when deadly forces are encountered.  You are prepared with security but use it as a last resort. 

REAL Green seeks to triage out the unnecessary and embrace the best technologies of both the old and the new so this does not mean being the most technological.  In many cases it means no tech or low tech.  Most of the time it means a hybrid.  All the time it means wise choices and good behavior.  Yet the relative part of REAL Green kicks in with the understanding of the failures of human behavior both within and without.  This means REAL Green is significantly about behavior as much as physical lifestyles.  Inner attitudes are as much of REAL Green as what tech to use or not to use.  If you can take the road of stoicism and live more Spartan but do this in context to your status quo position.  Dramatic and drastic behavior can wreck years of planning and development.  That said there are some who can go TRUE Green which is leaving the status quo completely closer to planetary harmony.  Some of the young and unencumbered can do this.  Some of the wealthy can buy it.  Most will struggle with the task of living in both worlds but this struggle is enlightening and contributes to physical strength. 

REAL Green means good health as a basic to building your REAL Green monastery.  I call it a monastery because one need only study the monasteries of the middle ages to get an idea of the changes needed.  Monasteries were local and they embraced self-sufficiency.  They also sought to live with the local political environment by yielding to greater powers.  They were non-confrontational.  They practiced a dedicated way of life.  REAL Green in my case is pastoral.  A excellent way to embrace REAL Green is a permaculture farm but this is not the only way.  REAL Green is an add on to your existing lifestyle and your higher power belief.  Be realistic most of us cannot leave what we have so adapt it.  REAL Green seeks to connect what you already have to planetary and human realities.  This is where the Deep Adaptation comes in.  You are doing this because you acknowledge planetary and human decline.  You embrace planetary and human succession instead of fighting it or denying it.  If you do this the planet and the best of human behavior will support you. 

You also accept that pain and suffering will be apart of this so this is why you embrace a new stoicism based on planetary realities.  You live Spartan because destructive change means less affluence.  You beat the rush so you lose less.  Those who have done the house cleaning will be far more able to save what is worth saving.  Clear the deadwood out with triage efforts.  This does not mean rejecting the fruits of consumerism.  Consumerism is killing the planet but it is beyond your context.  In your local you will collect all the old and new stuff of high value for your journey into the brave new world of decline.  This is where the prepping occurs.  The reason you will not embrace consumerism too much is REAL Green means avoiding clutter and distractions.  In most cases you will not have the resources to indulge in the unneeded.  You will also cast off the social narrative of unproductive leisure which tends to clutter life.  Your REAL Green leisure is productive and related to building your monastery. 

Finally, with REAL Green Deep Adaptation you will realize that none of these efforts will save you from the macro situation of decline and decay.  You acknowledge you are only as good as your local and when or if SHTF you will suffer the same consequences that your unprepared neighbor but likely less severe.  There are no guarantees your efforts will matter.  What matters is the meaning and enjoyment in the here and now and the understanding you have done all you can for yourself and your significant others.  You then have the meaning to face death better.  This leads to the understanding of the importance of your local.  This means you will invest in your neighbors as best you can without coming out with who and what you are.  Remember only a few can understand REAL Green Deep Adaptation.  Most if they knew what you are doing will mock and belittle you as a cook.  Not that this matters because you have found inner meaning. Where this remaining under the radar matter is your efforts to be below the purview of destructive forces.  Those who broadcast they are preppers are a target when collapse occurs.  In the end before your last breath if you have your faculties then meaning and the truth are what you want to take with you.  You will also want to leave all your stuff to those who matter.

The below referenced article makes a point worth facing.  It is focused on the US but it applies to the whole world.  The world is heading for decline.  This is fully evident in the numbers and the science.  Techno optimist talk about renewables and EV’s as if they will save us.  The numbers and science appear to point to these technologies only being stop gaps and niche applications.  The global financial system has grown to such a powerful force that generates capital and economic activity.  This force is now spent.  It may have years left but the real force of opening up the world to competitive advantage, economies of scale, and large stores of global capital are over.  We are now seeing excessive debt, trade problems, and massive unfunded liabilities.  These unfunded liabilities are not only in the developed world.  These false promises are for the masses in the undeveloped world urged on to a better life through consumerism and growth. 

It is clear the system we have become habituated to for decades is heading for a stall.  How bad will this inflection be?  Will this break point be sudden or multiyear?  It will likely be all of the above and spread out over the entire globe but as a whole the process will be general decline. There will be pockets of real growth with sustainable value but the aggregate will be decline which will take everyone down in the long term.  Decline means a whole new paradigm.  It means dysfunctional networks, economic abandonment, and irrational policy.  It means decay that will include some of what science calls chaos and turbulence.  These phenomena cannot be modeled well.  There is no exact formula for turbulence.  We are enamored with techno grandiosity.  We think AI will save us.  We believe we have an energy transition ready.  We discount and dismiss the planetary problems with the web of life and all the cycles that make the planet habitable.  We discount and dismiss destructive decline because we believe technology will solve the many problems.   The time value of the present habituates us because the lights still go on, gas at the pumps, and food at the store. 

We can only talk and plan for the future abstractly.  We are looking out 20 to 50 years with theory and this theory is compromised and corrupted by human delusions.  It is clear economic affluence and population growth are likely not sustainable at least in regards to positive growth impulses that yield real value.  We can grow cancerously with malinvestment and overpopulation and call that growth but it is not actual growth in the sense of being of value for long term betterment.  All this growth represents is the blowout of a system that is coming apart in an uncontrolled way.  Whether this means a cascading collapse or a long decline is uncertain.  This system is self-organizing and beyond a coordinated management.  The nature components of our human ecosystem appear to be tipped into a new regime of change.  The many vital planetary support systems now appear to be in abrupt change.  This change is converging with negative reinforcement and self-organizing meaning it is beyond human management.  Different cycles and systems are forcing each other towards destructive change of a complex system.  Succession is a powerful force in this situation where every aspect of the planetary system is in flux.  This is especially true when you have a species such as ours that is very sensitive to the smallest of changes both economically and environmentally. 

Our monocultures and industrial and financial systems do not take destructive change well.  They can handle short term change but a longer-term general decline is likely a different story.  This means food, water, and energy issues at a time when we are already in overshoot.  This then should be a warning to all that it is at least a good chance a time of drastic regime change is ahead.  We can’t know for sure but the possibility is strong.  Strong means proactive effort to address what could be ahead.  The problem is human behavior and the immediacy of life.  We as the collective are not up to the task of changing.  We are trapped in a situation beyond our collective control for many reasons but most of all the simple math of overshoot is staring us in the face.  For some reason we feel exceptional and above the extinction event the rest of the planet is going through.  This is going to bite us in the ass soon.

REAL Green Deep Adaptation is a call to action for the individual and small communities.  You can face this trap and adapt in a relative way.  The REAL part is acknowledgment of no escape.  The Green part is using the best of the old and new to downsize with dignity and in a way that lowers your foot print.  This footprint reduction is for better sustainability that will help mitigate the worst of what is coming.  This downsizing also has a moral aspect for those who care.  Some people deeply care about the planet.  The Adaptation part focuses on going local and low speed.  This should occur in a relative way in concordance with the status quo.  You can’t leave the destructive status quo but you can harness the best of it to carve out a little bit safer local.  Many people can’t do much but everyone can face the numbers and the science honestly.  This acknowledgment can at least temper the bad behavior all people have today by being part of the status quo that allows so many negative activities to flourish because of economic and social reasons.  Facing the writing on the wall can be achieved by everyone and this can change behavior towards better preparedness. 

REAL Green Deep Adaptation is for those awakened to the science and math and capable of understanding the consequences.  It is also for those who can do something.  Many people can’t do anything for multiple reasons. Some are too old, young, mentally inhibited, and uneducated.  Only a small amount of people will be capable of significant change but all people can begin the stages of mental acknowledgment of decay and decline.  This means a social narrative paradigm change could happen to all.  A social narrative realignment with planetary realities will happen so beat the rush.  Those who have the mentality to digest this and the resources to change can take REAL Green to a different level.  Those who can should change for themselves and their significant others but also the planet.  This is about localization which in todays world is about downsizing.  Downsizing if done properly makes the individual leaner and stronger.  It must be done properly because the status quo of social norms and economic realities does not tolerate deviation from the plan society has established.  There is the element of competition within the status quo that will squash you if you do not respect the rules established. 

This means going REAL Green is about relative change with triage and hybridization.  Clean out the dead wood per what is best for your local.  Embrace some of what was once done when life was tougher and less affluent.  Take the best of what is being produced now and the knowledge that modern life offers and combine it with the slower less complicated ways of the past.  Do this in a relative way based upon your position in the status quo.  Radical change is a trump card you save until needed.  Until the day arrives where cascading collapse is self-evident then the call to action is a dance with the status quo.  This means being vigilant to current events but not absorbed and coopted.  Use the status quo tot leave it.  This may not be True Green but only an even smaller amount of people can successfully go True Green.  Most people that embrace green are not awakened.  They think they are green and their actions will save themselves and the planet but these are really just Fake Green.  Fake Green is doing the same thing but with a Green façade. 

REAL Green calls on the individual to multitask with the status quo and Deep Adaptation.  It is about life boats but also hospices.  It is the preparation of pain and suffering and the realization that those close to you and your local environment is going to be torn apart.  Hopefully you will be a lucky one and the degree and duration of this destructive process will be manageable.  This is where REAL Green Deep Adaptation is so important.  You will have prepared yourself mentally and physically for destructive change.  You will have done this under the radar screen because you are still apart of the status quo.  You will have downsized with dignity and actually added value to your life with meaning.  The truth is the ultimate driving force of the awakened.  REAL Green Deep Adaptation is about getting closer to the truth.  In doing so the planet will fight for you because you will harness the flow of what powers life.  What is powering life now is dramatic and abrupt succession of the planet and all its ecosystems.  Embrace that instead of fighting it.  The current human narrative is dualistic and in separation.  Our isolated egos are being herded into a bad situation.  Break out of the trap if you can and if you can’t at least muster awareness.  We are all going to die but some will die without dignity and prematurely.  Even REAL Green people will die this way but they will have gone through the stages of grief that offers truth and with truth there is dignity.

“We Will Have To Reboot Our Standard Of Living To Survive As A Nation”

https://tinyurl.com/y6qusmw9     project Chesapeake via zero hedge

“If we want to continue having a country worth living in we need to go back to what we know works and try to build up from there. We no longer have sufficient manufacturing capacity to employ all of the people in this country and any kind of welfare will not work without debasing the currency.  This will necessitate 20% of the population going back to living on small farms to insure they have a job and sufficient resources to care for their families. Nothing else in our current situation will work. We have too many unemployed people living off of the state and this will end soon. We will either have a mass exodus from the country or a mass extinction within it. As unpleasant as it sounds that is our future if we do not make substantial changes while we still have time. That time is nearly up.  Downsizing our lives and our wants will be a necessary change if we want to salvage something of our future. We have lived too long in fantasy land and now we must come back to reality. The west line has moved and we will never get back all of the production jobs we once had. We must accept that and accept that our country will be less productive and less prosperous in the future and learn to live within our means.”

The  article following  highlights the REAL Green Deep Adaptation basis that fake green will not save the planet.  This means REAL green.  REAL Green says do what you can relatively speaking in regards to your status quo position.  Go local with your efforts and you will naturally see a reduced footprint.  This is not going to save the planet but it has the potential make you as an individual more sustainable.  Focus your eco efforts locally and you can make an impact.  The bigger picture is lost but the local is wide open for improvements.  This is significantly about attitude as well as actions.  It is about leaving the denial of fake greens.  REAL Green admits we are trapped in ecological decline as well as the decline of the human civilization.   Deep Adaptation based upon the realization that mankind will not fake green itself out of this ecological decline means a collapse process is unstoppable.  We can degrowth but that also presents a collapse variable.  Economic decline means less resources to combat ecological decline so at least initially this means worse ecological decline.  A poorer world is a dirtier world.  We cannot degrowth without initiating a collapse process.  Degrowth is inevitable because that is the result of a collapse process.  Deep Adaptation says begin preparations for a less affluence personally and with your community. 

This is a classic catch 22 trap that is adapted to instead of fought.  Deep Adaptation says collapse now and in place in a relative manner.  Use the status quo to leave it.  Take the best of the current modern way of life and leverage it to leave it.  This means efficiency efforts, conservation, and renewables.  It means education, community building, and spiritual preparation for hard times ahead.  The REAL Green is about triage, salvage, and hybridization.  Combine the best of the old and new.  REAL Green is about harvesting and gathering of solar energy through farming, gardening, and renewables.  This part of the effort is difficult because it is more expensive with less return than the status quo.  You can save money and make more money with the status quo but you will be less resilient.  There is a price to be paid for resilience and that is less affluence and more hard work.  The benefit is meaning and satisfaction but the tradeoff is less comfort and affluence.  The status quo is cheaper and easier.  The difference concerns going local and a return to the old ways of low energy harvesting through biomass.  It is about utilizing the modern with some of the excellent tech available like renewables and efficiency efforts. 

REAL Green says this will be a relative effort.  Many people do not have the money or the time to do this fully but they can do something.  The minimum is about the attitude of why you should be REAL Green and do Deep Adaptation.  If you have the money and the time then you should be doing this for the planet, your local, and your significant others.  REAL Green says get out of the finger pointing because it does not matter.  Avoid the conflict of protest that only puts you in harm’s way.  Don’t look for trouble because plenty of it will be around anyway.  Yield to the greater powers that are striving to increase control and manipulation.  Try to remove yourself from the corruption cycle.  REAL Green says make an effort to leave bad behavior and embrace the good.  This is in regards to your own piece of mind and what is better for the planet.  Stop discretionary travel for leisure and curiosity.  Find leisure and educational growth locally.  Stop high energy activities that do not support your local effort at sustainability and resilience.  REAL Green says to do this in a relative way since many of your significant others will remain embodied in the status quo narrative of growth and techno optimism.  Teach them without telling them and lead by silent example.  Show REAL Green wisdom by saying “No” to more status quo but don’t be extreme about it.  REAL Green says live the status quo both materially and with relationships but opt out where you can and utilize the rich resources available where you can. 

Build up your REAL Green monastery of tools, supplies, and a library of knowledge for the coming dark ages.  This is where your doomstead and prep efforts are realized as your own personal work of art and meaning.  You can be a small beacon of sanity and meaning once irrationality and dysfunction become the dominant forces.  As economic abandonment proceeds your low energy harvesting of biomass will then have greater economic value.  Do Deep Adaptation in regards to lifeboats and hospices.  We do not know when this huge self-organizing system of globalization that has delocalized the world will fail.  It is failing now so climb on the gradient and ride it down naturally and locally.  At some point people are going to die sooner that are close to you.   Medicine and the safety nets we have become reliant on will be diminished or gone at some point.  This means live healthy and exercise in preparation for tough times.  Prepare yourself for this so you can assist them in this unfortunate transformation of the coming collapse process.  The planet and the web of life will support you because that is where real meaning is.

‘Green growth’ is not enough

Nick Meynen   | 12th July 2019

https://tinyurl.com/y67ws78y

The concept of green economic growth has gained political acceptance. But a new study shows this policy choice has little or no scientific basis.

The empirical data and theoretical literature is both overwhelmingly clear and sobering: there is no evidence supporting the existence of a decoupling of economic growth from environmental pressures on anywhere near the scale needed to deal with environmental breakdown.

This is the conclusion of the new report, Decoupling debunked: Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability.

The authors also explain that there are at least seven reasons to be sceptical about the occurrence of sufficient decoupling in the future: rising energy expenditures, rebound effects, problem shifting, the underestimated impact of services, limited recycling potential, insufficient and inappropriate technological change, and cost shifting.

The fact that decoupling on its own, without addressing the issue of economic growth, has not been and will not be sufficient to reduce environmental pressures to the required extent is not a reason to oppose decoupling (in the literal sense of separating the environmental pressures curve from the GDP curve) or the measures that achieve decoupling.

Quite the contrary, without many such measures the situation would be far worse. In other words, decoupling shifts us from racing down the fast lane to cruising along the slow lane, which is an improvement. But to get off the highway, we need to do more.

The true cause for concern is the predominant focus among policy-makers on green growth as a panacea, with this focus being based on the flawed assumption that sufficient decoupling can be achieved through increased efficiency without limiting economic production and consumption.

Sustained growth is not sustainable

This scientific finding is strongly at odds with the eighth Sustainable Development Goal (SDG8), which aims to “promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth”.

While almost all SDGs have very important goals and targets that humanity desperately needs to achieve, SDG8’s pursuit of the economic growth is undermining the possibly of achieving the others.

The question now is whether governments will be willing to act upon the best available scientific evidence when they review SDG8 on 10 July in New York.

Countries such as Finland have already reacted to this contradiction within the SDGs by downgrading the importance of GDP growth in their plan to achieve the SDGs, but the EU as a bloc has yet to admit that there is a problem with target 1 in SDG8.

Researchers have some ideas about the truly sustainable way forward. The main conclusion of ‘Decoupling debunked’ is that increasing efficiency only makes sense if it is part of a wider pursuit of sufficiency, which is the direct downscaling of economic production and consumption in those sectors where it is needed most.

In the view of the authors and based on the best available scientific evidence, only sufficiency strategies respect the EU’s ‘precautionary principle’.

This Author

Nick Meynen is policy officer for Environmental and Economic Justice at the European Environmental Bureau. He authored several books on the environment and he comments on global environmental and economic issues on Facebook and Twitter.

The report, Decoupling Debunked. Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability, was produced by the EEB, with the support of the German Alliance for Nature Conservation (Deutscher Naturschutzring), in the context of the EEB’s work on economic transition in the context of the Make Europe Sustainable for All (MESA) project. It was released on 9 July and can be downloaded at https://eeb.org/library/decoupling-debunked/