I don’t know what to think anymore. A few years after 08 and the pseudo recovery I was a little stunned. Look where we are over 10 years later and still ticking. I become stunned in 15 with how the traditional peak oil message was dead and immediate financial doom a boy crying wolf. I call current growth pseudo because this recovery is really just wealth transfer disenfranchisement. Personally I think real aggregate growth that has value is negative. Sure China built vast amounts and markets are way up in the west. To me much of what we have today is malinvestment that can never make the return these investments are supposed to. We have monstrous unfunded liabilities everywhere with the wrong type of demographics. The poor of the world that are young can never make this up. The ever growing young are part of the problem. At some point overpopulation is a negative and we are there. Taken together all this is a huge systematic farce.
I had done some radical adaptation for this 08 event I saw coming. I began preparing for it in 05. I was fully onboard as a peaker and once the CB interventions occurred I somewhat radicalized. I became stunned as shale change the peaker debate and as the CB intervention grew feet. This CB interventionism has impressed me from the point of view of just how well it has managed to keep the global economy going. This is everywhere also with the US, China, and Europe in on it. The EM’s are riding this wave too. It has changed the world radically but more like a frog boiling than a phoenix.
The only thing I can compare it to is a Ponzi scheme retirement party. I mean where the hell do we go from here? The debt levels everywhere except maybe Russia are in the stratosphere. Russia ain’t shit without the rest of world being healthy. It is almost like MMT will be inevitable although the socialistic paradise is a farce. The neo socialist pretend all it takes is money for prosperity. They think the rich have real money. This is not the case because most of the money the rich have is digital. Most debt is bad debt. The rich own the debt and it value is not real. Nations have debt that is not real. The individual with debt as their life is becoming more and more difficult. Much of the collateral backing most of the global debt is compromised or nonexistent. This is one big farce.
I see things continuing to slowly decline until we either stop cooperating in cold or hot wars or a black swan disrupts confidence enough that a Minsky moment occurs where the individual stops the economic activity by ending his participation in the game. Liquidity is the name of the game and real liquidity is peoples trust. Hyperinflation could be the result too. At some point people will stop believing in fiat currency. There is not enough gold to matter. Crypto currencies cannot cover the whole currency spectrum. A cashless society is not possible everywhere.
I have no clue what is coming other than like with energy we are in decline and consequences of that decline will not be pleasant especially considering the current pissed off human behavior of people everywhere always expecting more and getting less. I have been watching the financial side of doom now daily for years. I am too the point of scratching my head dumbfounded and in amazement. How long can this shit go on? How long can bubbles inflate and be controlled? How long can the deception be propagated? This is lies built on lies. It is even more horrifying because the fate of billions rests on a string of lies.