In REAL Green I am very clear about what ought to be and what is. It is my opinion “what ought to be” is a function of scale. What I mean by this is the smaller the human scale the more likely “what ought to be” is realized. “What is” then is more likley at greater scales where self-organization and path dependencies drive human behavior. At global levels we are locked-in. At local levels there is abundant opportunities to adapt. This is a key point about the determinism and free-will of being saved.
Theoretically we could save the world. The reason this won’t happen is human nature is out of scale. Globalism does not scale for decline. Globalist are pushing more of it not less. The policies of the great reset are examples of the self-organization of corruption as power concentrates. The mechanization of transhumanism and unsustainability of delocalization will increase the tension on a world in decline.
People don’t want to leave their homes and family. Yet, cities must depopulate and that is where a majority of people live today. Roughly 80% of Americans live in urban zones and 29% in rural. This actually should be reversed. This is a Catch-22 situation that can’t be sugar coated. Urbanization equals affluence but when affluence hits diminishing returns then it destroys real affluence. We are now at that tipping point.
Leadership today is mostly corrupt with moral hazard and priveldge. There are actions that could be taken if we had proper leadership willing to sacrifice. These actions would be more acceptable by the majority of people who will need to make a transition that is unfathomable. The degree to which all people must change is beyond our mental preparation. Leadership is needed to prep the masses. This won’t happen because leadership is deceptively claiming it has policies offering more affluence.
This is on both sides of the political spectrum although the left is the most delusional with green new deals and social justice utopias. I want to be clear, the brown fossil fuel world we grew up with has no future either. Yet, it is the green utopias that represent the most dangerous policies. I feel renewables are vital and I also believe conservation is a must. What I do not agree with is an affluence that is now considered an entitlement can be expanded with these fake green polices.
What is ahead is a decline process that can be adapted to better or worse. There is no way to avoid pain and suffering with any policy. It is my opinion that the coming drop in affluence is going to be so abrupt and dramatic that any and all energy systems need to be maintained. Decay and abandonment will be systematic wide. This is about survival not saving the world. There are tipping points beyond which dangerous cascading failures are likely. It will take everything we got to steer the ship away from these dangers.
I am a degrowther but not a typical one that you read about on green sites. I do not speak of a steady state economy. There is no steady state with a macro decline process. At the very local level a steady state can be made more possible. I do not put a happy face on degrowth like so many in green circles. These “degrowth can save the world” notions are just more of the same dishonest science the greens have embraced. Maybe since I was in business so many years, I have a skeptical and discriminatory view of things. If it doesn’t add up, I don’t buy into it. The something for nothing attitude and the get out of jail free card don’t work in a REAL Green world view.
There will be lots of collateral damage with needed lifestyle changes. Net energy decline and resource depletion will strike equally across classes and ethnicities. This will be the great equalizer. The metaphysical aspects of dysfunction and the irrational will take its toll systematically with logistics and services. Aspects of life you have come to expect and rely on will fail. The grid is going to destabilize. Electricity defines modernity so keep an eye on you grid condition to gauge your locals decline phase.
Who will be forced to make these sacrifices first is unclear? If we are to save the world, some forced actions would have to be taken. We would see whole regions forced to evacuate to more sustainable locations and lifestyles. How this could be done in today’s political, social, and economic environment makes it near impossible to do proactively. The top with its corrupt leadership and out of control administrative apparatus is incapable. These forces are now parasitic.
The top leadership is currently acting parasitically without needed oversight. The administrative state in government, academia, and health care has no interest in change. Their bloated bureaucracy will prevent change or push the wrong kind. They are now politicized to the point of being religious in their devotions. These forces are the biggest impediment to change and ensure the top will be the obstacle to better adaption. It could be different but this is now the reality of a global world in decline.
Eventually proper actions will be forced to occur locally which is the only place left for needed adaptation. This will happen because this is where the buck stops. The pain and suffering will be where needed change originates because this is the front lines of change. Decentralization and empowerment are the name of the game going into destructive change. If your local promotes these valuable attributes you are much more likley to survive this destructive process.
The world could be saved and we need to understand the how it could be even if it is not possible. It would have to start sooner rather than later. A coordinated effort would be commenced with locals and top leadership coordinating joint efforts. Locals would be given much of the decision making with the top getting out of the way. This decentralizing effort would need the top to enforce principles of confederation. The top would be the gate keeper to maintain fairness.
The key point to understand in this theoretical exercise is this is a door opened and then shut. Once these actions start there is no turning back. These actions will wreck the existing economy. There is no certain result either. Decline is a sudden and unpredictable whereas growth is incremental and stable. These actions will eliminate 60% of the economy that is discretionary and related to modern affluence. It is hard to imagine what changes that await because they are so many normal and everyday activities at risk.
It is important to understand this decline phase is not an option in any scenario. This last turning of civilization has now started. This is now self-organizing on a planet in abrupt change from human forcing. Most of us don’t realize this in our daily lives because we are being slow boiled. If we feel the pain of change it is not yet strong enough to warrant panic.
Our brightest minds are the most delusional. Many of the brightest minds are still in denial and bargaining. They know and acknowledge the warning signs of a coming bottleneck but they have attitudes of techno fixes that get in the way. They have group think biases that prevent needed change. Tough choices are avoided by these groups because they have no ovesight. They are following bad policy because to deviate you get cancelled.
Scientist tend to be naïve about business. They are bred to think theoretically. Rarely do they take part in the commercialization of their experimental projects. They just think them up and leave the application to the markets. They have never handled logistics and dealt with risk. They are far too specialized to deal with what is needed to decentralize. Decentralization in decline means getting rid of science as we know it. This is a big reason tough choices will be avoided by this group.
Government bureaucracy has grown dominant with constant growth of spending. Once a program or agency is created it is rarely eliminated. Bureaucracies have no interest in adaptive change. They are entrenched in their walled fortresses. This condition is now the biggest hurdle to the local. If locals could be left alone vital adaptation is possible. Locals need fairness and a degree of security and they can make big changes. Sadly the top will be in the way of great opportunities.
Our brightest minds influencing those who lead are deep in self-deception. Their livelihood now depends on this self-deception. They are in fact more lost on the subject of decline than many who have good common sense. If you talk to many less formally educated but more educated with experience, they have a better grip on what is needed.
Specialization is clouding common sense. Needed changes are simple which makes them very difficult in a world of specialization. Less specialization is needed and this points to the path dependency trap the global is in. At the local this will be an impediment to change for you. The administrative state is going to be a source of problems for you. This ought not be but unfortunately is. Accept this with humility and you can find ways to maneuver.
The general public has been lied to and improperly educated for years now. We have bred people to be consumers and seek affluence instead of sustainability and resilience. Today it is even worse with woke safe spaces and the cult of victimhood. These attitudes are not lifeboat attitudes. Decline is about lifeboats of insecurity. There will be no safe spaces at any level embrace this and you will find wisdom and strength.
This safe space mentality results in a mentality of transhumanism and delocalization that has trapped us in a system requiring ever more affluence. The transhumanism of machines is generally looked to for solutions to problems. Intead there needs to be less machines and technology. There needs to be less delocalization of mobility. Globalism is based upon transhumanism and delocalization. These are the basis of affluence. Affluence is in decline so adaptation means less globalism.
Mobility and digital capabilities now dominate our daily lives. Few grow food and practice home economics. Few know the basic skills of survival with hand tools. Fewer still know how to utilize animal power. Most are in unsupportable urban settings in jobs with no future. If 60% of the economy needs to be phased out that leaves lots of people with nothing to do. Keep in mind this condition will be forced on the world regardless. If we are going to save the world it is how we adapt to this that is the key ingredient.
We are now on the fence of change with one foot in what will be the old world of modernity and one in the new world of what was once considered old. Many in green delusions see techno marvels of artificial intelligence and green energy on the horizon. The car culture will be made electric and our food grown with greater science and industry just greener.
The old ways that will be the future ways are looked down upon as inefficient and brutish. They are less efficient and more painful and this is what is needed. Efficiency has hit diminishing returns too. It is now the problem. Less efficiency but more resilience is the name of the game. This means not upgrading but instead mothballing and salvaging.
Most techno marvels will end quickly with cascading decline because they rely on a dangerously unstable grid and supply chains. The economies of scale needed to make modern marvels affordable is likewise unsustainable in net energy decline and resource depletion. What can be saved is now vital. There are a lot of very valuable tech that needs to be saved to buffer the ride down.
I know how to save the world theoretically. This story should be told to know why it can’t be done. We should know what is needed so we will not make the situation worse. At this point the wrong actions will have disproportionately negative results. If we can expose flawed policy then less pain and suffering is possible. Yet, a certain amount of humility and acceptance is required because so much damage will be done by a train wreck of path dependencies. This is why it is only theoretical the world can be saved.
The great reset is an example of the worst possible leadership. Technocratic centralization with more transhumanism is the absolute wrong approach. This is what global leadership is pushing. The Chinese CCP is also on this track with its own version. This is converging into a competitive race. If this race goes kinetic, we can expect the worst possible outcomes.
Consider a world with altruistic leadership and a properly educated populous in a concerted effort. Actions could be initiated to make the descent to a lower level of stability more likely. What needs to be done is a hybridization of maintaining a reduce level of existing global structures that support vital systems. Economic resources are vital to constructive growth in a downsizing of civilization. This is a must because demographics are going to be reversed and this needs adaption. Adaptation takes resources physical and metaphysical.
Depopulating cities into rural areas where localism and permaculture will be the new way of life requires investment. New infrastructure and tools are needed. Education is a vital element of this reorientation of daily life. Education costs money. Moving people involves machines so transhumanism and delocalization mut be maintained. Yet these actions ae being done to leave that world. The car culture can’t be ended without preparations like animals and localism.
Cities must be maintained to be depopulated. Vital industry kept going to supply necessities to end them. Industrial agriculture must be maintained until enough people can be moved back to the land. There is no way permaculture localism can feed the world as-is with 7BIL people. It can support 1-2BIL. Populations must come down quickly but understanding families must grow in size. This is the complexity of the paradoxes of decline.
This back to the land paradigm would ideally be done initially with volunteerism. People would be educated on the merits of voluntary simplicity. They would leave the cities into a life much more difficult and rigorous because this is what is required for survival. This is not a safe space refuge but a move into a hard life this is more sustainable. Meaning must be created for why this must be done to get people to embrace this needed change.
Leadership would lead the way in sacrifice. They would do what is needed to see this transition through by being at the front lines. They would not enjoy the perks of priveldge. Their mansions and toys would be discarded. They would live by a Spartan code of honor and duty. They would lead by example by making big sacrifices that all would see. Sacrifice is a vital aspect of this project of hope.
Unless people see common sacrifice, this project of hope will not work. This is why it won’t work. Without leadership this process will be haphazard. There will be locals that can transition better but the world will not be saved. Many people are going to die and be disenfranchised into a difficult existence. This reality does not need to be as bad. Any scenario will be bad but the current trend is much worse.
These theoretical efforts would start with the low hanging fruit that is still everywhere. People that would want to go rural in permaculture localism need to be supported. They would be the train blazers. This would be family units because it is family, tribe, and small community that is the key to success. In this theoretical world, families will need to grow and genders assume their traditional roles. Kids will have to work and be educated at the same time. Education would be k-8. There is no room for the universities system we know today. Their knowledge factories are producing the wrong knowledge.
There will be little time for modern recreation in this world. Recreation will return to what it once was. Before the industrial era it centered around simple activities like food and drink. People remained local and did not take vacations. Their activities were social with community. The individual thrills possible these days must end. This recreation will be low energy and low tech.
These initial pioneers will go seasonal and embrace intermitency. This means altered food choices and daily lifestyles. Electricity will be rationed. Lights will be out early. Food will be eaten according to the seasons. Preparations will be made to preserve the harvest for later use. There will be daily chores that are mundane and repetitive. Water and food will be the primary focus. If this sounds third world that is because it is. It is the degree to which we can apply knowledge and appropriate tech to being third world this is the key.
Leisure will be altered greatly. People will gather in their churches and community for enjoyments. Hand tools will entertain us. Simple get togethers will replace the isolation of the modern era. Leisure will be merged with work for example with food preservation. One need only look to the past with how this was done as little as a century ago in the majority of the world.
Initially these people will be offered security and the basics of health care. They will have to build on their own local safety nets to make up for the deterioration of state safety nets. Through education this will be understood because centralized safety nets will not be supportable. City dwellers will recognize the same because cities will shrink and with that shrinkage so will their safety nets. The old and the young will again live together under the same roof. Old folks’ homes will not be possible.
The most difficult aspect of this theoretical transition is the dismantling but also the maintenance of the negative consequence of modern life. Nuclear industry will have to be properly mothballed but at the same time it is maintained. In the beginning all energy sources will be needed. Dangerous industrial systems will pose a threat to many rural areas so this effort will have a high priority but with less resources. This effort will dovetail with the downsizing of urban areas and supply chains. This is why this is an end game of modern civilization. Once these systems are turned off there is no going back.
The vast amounts of weapons will need to be properly disposed of. Armies will need to be repurposed for this effort. Cooperation among nations agreed to with the understanding good fences mean good neighbors. External migration will have to be halted to allow internal migrations. Proper change can’t be managed unless borders are maintained. The internal chaos will be bad enough. Uncontrolled external migration will leave regions in worse shape. Globalist of the great reset are promoting the opposite now which is a prescription for chaos.
The world will be returning to one made by hand. Animals will become part of our lives. Transport and heavy labor will return. There can still be appropriate tech and vital knowledge from the modern era maintained. A wisdom of the lifeboat will be applied to determine what to save. Knowledge will be triaged out that will not serve the purpose of this new world. Material things will likewise be triaged out of this world made by hand.
Anything getting in the way of change will be eliminated. This is a cancel culture but one based upon the reality of the decline in affluence not the desire to increased affluence and safety. The key to this is the process of change does the cancelling not thinktanks and government. This means leadership must have clear view that decline is ahead not more affluence. This is the lifeboat and hospice mentality that would be needed at the top but is not likley to be found until it is too late.
Spiritualism will be promoted. It is going to take meaning to power through these sacrifices. The human narrative will be altered dramatically seeking many more metaphysical aspects. Materialism will be altered to focus on respect and care for vital materials. Modern profit motives reduced but not eliminated. The concept of real value must be maintained. Price discovery can’t be discarded because it is the best determiner of value. Yet, a collectivism of wisdom will maintain the public trust over private profit. Barter and the gift economy will be allowed to flourish because these work at the local level.
This story I told you is one of fantasy but one that should be reflected on. If we the people in a world in decline can be steered more in this direction then less pain and suffering is likely. This general blueprint can be used locally if this story is understood. These basics of decline and voluntary simplicity will scale locally. The global is lost but not the local.
It is vital that awakened groups start the transition immediately. Denial and bargaining will only make the transition harder. These pioneers will be the seeds and incubators of the future. Others will follow the trails they blaze. They will do the recon and the prepping of the battlefield for the war against entropic decay. The difficult trial and error can be done by them first.
You the individual can do this in your life relatively and realistically. You can go permaculture in localism as much as you can. You can at least understand what has no future and where the future awaits. Permaculture localism must be the focus of your higher power principles. Adapt your spirituality accordingly. This will be a spirtual war of what meaning is right. Permaculture localism is that meaning.
It is possible the end of the modern world will come suddenly and violently. It is more likely it will be a mosaic of events and processes. It will be a local affair with regional expressions. You can manage better or worse by positioning towards the local and away from the global. Heroics will be called for. Heroics is possible in properly positioned locals.
The awakened will live the wisdom of insecurity which is a pessimistic optimism of the hospice. Difficult times will be embraced and a palliative care administered for the vulnerable and needy. The awakened will be much more able to act heroically and selflessly in the local. This will be what it takes to save your local. The result will be a new spiritualism of constructive change within a world accepted to be in destructive decline.
This world is coming and it will be forced on all. It will be the degree to which people properly adapt that will dictate how many survive. The longer this transition is delayed the worse it will be to navigate. The more people that embrace the false prophets of the great reset the worse the damage to an already monumental effort needed.
Understand that this is a local project and, in some cases, regional. Reflect on what could be if the global project would embrace efforts at a common decline. Since the global effort will fall into competitive conflict reflect on the degree to which your local is at risk. Scale accordingly to yield to these forces. In some cases, set up defenses to the efforts of centralized control. These forces that will confront you will have so many challenges they will tend to avoid fortified locations.
This starts in your own backyard with you and your family. Your tribe and community will come together in common necessity at some point. It is those tribes and communities that see this tend first that will do better. Seek out proper community. Find a good local if you can before the rush. The basics of survival are simple. Simple as in easy to understand and also simple in application. The hard part is believing in these simple actions when so much marketing is promoting the opposite.
This is a world made by hand and a world of family. It is only through family these hard choices will be made properly. Families that work together as tribes will leverage the strength of the family. Confederations of tribes in small communities will be where the real success is.
My REAL Green is dedicated to the concept of lifeboats and hospices. REAL Green is focused on rural and middle-class scenarios of my life but the key concepts scale to others unique locals. Apply these key concepts to your local.
I am not the one to judge your unique expressions. There will be plenty of judgment from the decline process itself. The process will not care about excuses. It will reward humility and acceptance. Spartan and ascetic lifestyles are a must. Most of all an attitude that looks to the nature of life instead of the arrogance of humanism is required.