REAL Green the Bulge

Seeing that healthcare system bulge that represents the reason we are doing social distancing and economic and social quarantine makes me reflect on the ecological principal of degree and duration.  A population’s survival to shocks is related to its abilities to manage the degree of the shock and the duration.  These can very and both can be deadly.  What people do not realize as much is this condition, we are trying to avoid with the healthcare system becoming dysfunctional is also present at the greater level of the economy.  There will be no getting out of jail free card this time.  We are here in a free fall and now it should be reflected on where we will land.  Life is not going to get back to normal even though people still walk around in a feeling of normality.  How far down those steps lead until a floor is reached is unknown?  This is unknown because we have built in so much complexity combined with population growth, we do not know how many and how active we as a people will be at this new level.  This will be a time of destructive change with economic abandonment, dysfunctional networks, and irrational behavior.  That is the other bulge not discussed when our brightest minds and leadership talk about what we face.  I doubt we are going to see growth for a while.  We are going to see salvage and triage at many levels.  At some point the ways we lived will be pointless and we will by necessity move on.  The dangerous period is the turbulence of the phase change of it and the immediate aftermath of being stripped of layers of support.

 

My REAL Green has preached green prepping for years now.  This is about resilience and sustainability in what can be pictured as lifeboats.  The other is a picture of a hospice.  Yes, people are going to die but this hospice is also about the death of a way of life.  It could be about rebirth too but not before we pay for the consequences of getting here.  I might add this was self-emergent so finger pointing is pointless.  Nature does not care about excuses so it will be forced upon the innocent and guilty alike.  REAL Green then seeks acceptance of a decline into a collapse in a process and or event.  It is getting to the level of acceptance that allows a REAL Green to go forth in action.  This then becomes a journey that is actually a retreat into activities that are a decline in place.  Localism is the result but one must remember this world has been delocalized by globalism.  This then is a journey to get closer to a rebirth of localism within the destructive change of globalism.  There are many very good products and excellent practices learned in our wild ride up.  These need to be retained but also combine with a millennium of human activity that represented low carbon capture and a more harmonious adaptation to planetary cycles.

 

We humans are not going to get there right away and can’t if we want to survive.  Globalism is the human ecosystem now so we have to have one foot in and one foot out of globalism if that is even possible.  My REAL Green has done this for years but also with funds to do it.  I have always realized this and reflected on it.  I used a relativity to deal with it.  A REAL Green adapts as best as can be achieved according to the nature of his global ecosystem but also the potential of his local.  For some no action is possible because they are completely trapped or not awakened.  Currently, my REAL Green is faced with the possible end of the income stream that allowed a hybrid life.  I have prep assets to fall back on.  I have skills.  What is lacking is community that is needed for localism to survive and prosper.  What is so insidious about this virus is its attack on localism of community.  We are being told to quarantine and maintain social distancing.  This is not conducive to people joining together and getting on with survival locally.  Now we are thrust into localism and are naked and cold.  This will of course have to end eventually.  People will have to make and grow things or the REAL dying will begin.

 

The journey now is about navigating mentally and materially through a gauntlet of forced change.  This is not the constructive change that was also disruptive that was driven by ever more complexity and efficiency of our techno optimistic world.  We destroyed resilience doing this and now our world is unsustainable.  How unsustainable now is a matter of how far we allow what we have to degrade.  REAL Green is under no allusions that localism will save us.  What will save us is embracing the journey.  To make the journey there must be acceptance of a death of a way of life.  This does not mean transcendence but instead transformation.  I recommend in this time of turmoil to yield to higher powers and decline in place with as much dignity as you can find.  A degree of dignity can be found in the meaning of this process that reflects reality.  This is individual so don’t expect a movment.

 

The truth is ultimately what mature and honest humans seek.  The problem is maturity has been bred out of our populations in the pursuit of affluence by whatever means.  Real maturity comes from wisdom which is about making choices.  These choices now in a world of decline are about choosing what knowledge and things to keep and what to dispose of.  That is the triage of it.  The hybridization is the return to low carbon capture but with best thing and practices our modern life developed.  This means growing things, craft skills, and home economics.  Yet, on the journey it is still about making a living in a global world that is the ecosystem we live in.  So, this then is a surreal journey back to the past with modern things and knowledge.  It is a very difficult journey because it is about navigating the traps of life and path dependencies that took us from the old ways that were more resilient and sustainable to a modern one of great affluence albeit unsustainable.  All civilizations seem to succumb to this journey so we must acknowledge human ecosystems enter succession like earth ecosystem and the reality is they are one as our disrupted nature world is expressing.  The acceptance is ultimately that there might not be a destination but only a journey.  Yet, this is what life is about and that is our journey to death.  Life just got very REAL.

Korowiczian Influence to REAL Green

“THE TRANSFORMATION OF RISK”

https://tinyurl.com/v3dal5b     korowicz human systems

 

“We have entered an age where the risks societies face are becoming more extreme in their impacts, more probable in their likelihood, and potentially irreversible in their duration.

 

The conditions that underpin the casual expectations of our normal lives  — that there is food in the supermarket, that businesses can operate, that electricity, water and healthcare are available, that we can communicate, money works, and government functions — depends upon the coherent operation of an increasing complex, interdependent, high-speed and integrated global system. Mostly we don’t notice it because it works so effectively.

 

However, this complexity that underpins our welfare has become a source of growing vulnerability. Distant stresses and  shocks can be transmitted across the world through financial system and supply-chain contagion, through transport  and communications networks, supply/ demand drops, and human movements.

 

Further, it means that if the ‘right’ part of a socio-economic system is sufficiently compromised (by a financial collapse, major pandemic, natural or environmental disaster, cyber/ hybrid- attack on critical infrastructure, state failure, or synchronous events), critical interdependent societal systems can fail collectively. In a time of always-on economies, of rapid financial flows and Just-In-Time logistics, the process may be rapid. Under certain conditions, this could be global and irreversible.

 

At the same time we can expect growing stresses —including from food,oil and water constraints; from the impacts of climate change; credit over-expansion; demographics, declining global trust/ legitimacy-that can propagate through these global networks. It is the interactions of increasing societal vulnerability, and the rising scale and impact of stressors that is being referred to as The Transformation of Risk.

 

This transformation is likely to be experienced as growing societal stress- social, political, economic, environmental and infrastructural; and an increase in the frequency and intensity of shocks. There will be more surprises, the future will look more and more uncertain, while society’s expectations and expert models (for the economy or greenhouse gas emissions, for example) diverge further from reality. Instability will become de-stabilising. In this context, the resilience and adaptive capacity of societies are likely to be further undermined. This increases the likelihood of large-scale systemic failure – from localised and reversible, to global and irreversible become more likely.

 

This is the context in which Korowicz Human Systems operates. Firstly, it aims to develop and express a perspective on Globally Integrated Systemic Risk that is scientifically credible. Secondly, it aims to translate this into an actionable Risk Posture that can guide societal responses. Finally, it is endeavouring to support and encourage societal preparedness and contingency planning through work with governments, institutions, and civil society.

 

We do not know what the future will bring, but as a society we are overwhelming invested in a future that assumes continued socio-economic integration. But the growing likelihood of societal stress and the potential for irreversible systemic failure, coupled with the potentially catastrophic impacts means there is a strong risk management argument for putting more effort into engaging with the consequences of severe down-side risks.”

 

A further great read that is directly relevant to the virus:

“Catastrophic Shocks Through Complex Socio-Economic Systems — A pandemic perspective”

https://tinyurl.com/vy3cvsk  david korowicz

Determinism and Free Will in REAL Green

One has to reflect on the nature of ecosystems specifically the current planetary one with the central element of human intervention.  Clearly todays planetary ecosystem and summation of local ecosystems are/is in decline or localized failure.  This points to succession as the now primary force in both human and natural realms.  The reality is you can’t decouple these but for the sake of understanding they are often separated.  “Advocate isolating half the planet to protect it from humans” definitely has merit but not complete realism.  The realism is in regards to the nature of planetary succession preventing good conservation at these levels.  The planet is affected by humans in overshoot but also humans are in a state of overshoot making this a quagmire for humans and nature alike.  In this regard then the human/nature nexus has negative feedbacks that overwhelm human intervention plus degrade nature more.  In fact, it is human intervention that is the problem so more intervention is a problem.  I say this in respect to macro efforts at geoengineering and conservation which point to scaling issues policy which by definition have scaling issues.

 

Having scaling issues is not bad but it should be recognized.  Alternatively, the starting point of action gets back to a scaling issue and action secondary.  At a certain level when we engage in macro efforts, we are losing scale and balance.  Yet, the reality is humans are out of scale so good action out of scale is required.  Renewables fit this description.  They are greener than fossil fuels but also very disruptive and damaging.  There is an inevitability of human and planetary succession now.  This is a self-organizing force which has already involved tipping points on multiple levels.  This means there is a current of forces leading to a chain of events that point to a determined string of events ahead.  This is critical to understand because we must get to the very core of the problem to be able to properly orientate behavior.  The core of the problem is humans don’t scale in good or bad.  The good and bad of human activity will continue regardless.

 

While you may say to this well you said nothing but then you are missing a key point.  That point is there is a planetary gradient above and beyond human intervention or understanding.  The point here is the idea of isolating nature from humans means trying to isolate nature from nature.  Humans are part of this natural force which is above and beyond human control.  Until human’s respect this it does not matter if human actions are good or bad there is still the problem of proper wisdom being missed.  Does this matter then or is this point meaningless in regards to good human actions?  My gut tells me humans real challenge is not saving nature but saving ourselves.  If we can save ourselves nature will be saved albeit within the context of a gradient of decline of a planet in succession.

 

To save ourselves requires honesty so if these macro actions of good with geoengineering and conservation are not grounded in honesty to the true human existential situation they are ultimately doomed.  Just like the greater good of green efforts has been taken hostage by fake green techno optimistic capitalism.  Any human action is natural because it’s a unity issue.  If we are going to reflect on what is happening then a requirement is honesty.  This honesty of self-reflection ultimately must be individual.  In a sense we need to isolate ourselves, our local, our significant others and our basis of meaning to be protected by human forces.  This is not possible really as the virus is showing us all too well.  In times of better human scale these forces could not be isolated.  It is a function of the planet and its ecosystem first and humanity second.  Living with this then should tell humans it is folly to play human games at the macro but it is also natural and inevitable.  So basically, we get back to where we started which is the nature of the tensions of determinism and free will.  Free will can be found locally but determinism rules the planet.

Why I am not Prepping Much for the Virus

I am in a similar situation being already prepped and more important mentally prepared.  I am a green prepper so all the things in this article I have already worked on.  Our situation is slightly different but the motivation is much the same.  The important point for me to express to other readers here is green prepping is not about creating this unsinkable ship that will save you.  It is about lifeboats of strategies of things and lifestyle that assist the process of mitigating and adapting to decline.  These things and attitudes become part of a life style that naturally seeks wise simplicity and this then obviously centers around localism.  Scaling with balance results.  What this means is a proper human scale is not the modern one but balance means we are trapped in a scale that is modern but not proper.  Most all of us must live and work in a scale that is not proper for sustainability and resilience.  You can adapt this dysfunctional arrangement

 

I will make the point that survival has never has been assured even when humans were scaled better.  This is the nature of planetary acquiescence.   What green prepping is then is more of a dealing with the false attitudes the current social narrative habituates us too.  In a way we are more vulnerable than the older times because we have been deceived into believing there is this magic safety net from the techno modern.  What green prepping is about is acceptance of the wisdom of insecurity and the going forth in this truth to make ones local more resilient and sustainable.

 

There is then the hospice part of this activity which seeks honesty in the face of decline and death.  This view of death is not necessarily the mortal end of our lives but the death of a way of life so many of us have been born into.  Globalism has been all any of us have really known.  Now we are faced with the end of this powerful system both systematically but also planetary.  This means that all those delocalization strategies that have been embraced by individuals and communities will have to be critically examined.  The only obvious response is simplicity and localism.

 

There is only so much that can be done but doing something should be obvious.  Paralysis is understandable but only in the beginning of this realization.  Simple things like growing food should be a natural response.  Simpler yet is learning to grow food.  Home economic skills are another area.  Crafts and professional expertise that are applicable to this new way of living should be honed.  If somebody is good with animal husbandry or carpentry these should be applied to decline.  A community is made up of multiple skill.  Individuals should become a jack of all trades in general and specialize with your individual talents.  Most people are good at something.

 

None of this is assured because the damage from delocalization and the destruction of local community has gone so far.  Yet, these powerful human links of community will return from necessity as the absurd world of depending on survival from value chains that stretch the earth are exposed.  Not everyone can do advanced green prepping.  BTW the green part of this prepping means fortifying the planet and the people in the local.  So, many are already green oriented it is just these attitudes have not gone through the metamorphosis that a crisis like this virus is presenting.

 

It is likely this virus will only hurt globalism with maybe no more death than the flu.  Yet, humans really don’t have any alternative to globalism so this is serious nonetheless.  The basics of survival are centered around globalism so it is not going to magically disappear and a wonderful localism sprout.  This bifurcating process will have consequences that will require pain and suffering and for some death.  That is ultimately the hospice part.  Now is the time to at least evaluate your life in regards to an existential insecurity everyone is faced with.  Even the elite and the privileged have nowhere to hide.  This economic pandemic will touch everyone.  Is it a pathogen pandemic yet?  Does it matter really because it has shaken the economy into a new level which is a lower level of affluence.  These things are related so don’t be fooled when people say the virus is no worse than the flu because on the economic level it is and our economics are global and the global is survival.  Adapt this while you can.

 

 

“Why I’m Not Preparing for Covid-19”

https://tinyurl.com/qkzx2za     low carbon life

 

“We’re not preparing only because we’re already prepared, at least on the most basic and most useful level. I can’t think of much I could add today that would significantly increase our safety. Slightly, maybe, but not significantly.  The great news is that getting ready for one bad surprise gets you at least half way ready for all the others. Ice storm closed all the roads? Better make sure you don’t have to run to the store for food or bleach, and you have some other way to cook, heat and poo in case the power and water stop. Community-level health problem? You’re safer not leaving home, and you should probably assume that power and water employees may not be able to get to work. Lost your job? Better not go to the store, and maybe do without power and water in favor of paying the rent or mortgage. Are you seeing a pattern here? I certainly do.”

The Dimensions of the REAL Green Journey

REAL Green is about a journey and the behavior during that journey that manifests itself in the building up of localism.  REAL Green is green prepping which is a hybrid prepping of enhancing localism to boost resilience and sustainability.  Normal prepping is often about isolation with a bunker mentality.  REAL Green recognizes the need for strategies to protect your local from outside shocks but the key is recognizing that no amount of prepping will ensure survival.  Instead REAL Green recognizes that shocks can vary with the shock of the steady decline of the planet and human system being a priority.  Addressing this type of shock also enhances one’s ability to deal with specific shocks that are more dramatic and more localized.

 

The journey is first and foremost one of behavior, attitudes, and lifestyles.  One of the most important aspects to this mental condition is the acceptance of decline with the corresponding pessimism but a pessimism that is optimistic.  This juxtaposition is because the journey that is a way of life creates meaning and hope.  The meaning is active efforts at survival strategies.  This is an art lost on the modern human.  Our ancestors lived the constant threat of a collapse in their local.  Back then globalism was not present to jump in and mitigate localized failures.  The hope comes from feeling your preparedness will allow a better chance of survival.

 

REAL Green is more than the preoccupation with decline and collapse because it is a green way of life.  This green way of life involves permaculture strategies, embraced simplicity, and restoration of nature in the local.  This means even if the techno optimists are correct and the human experiment will succeed long into the future a REAL Green who embraces decline is still a success because of the rewards of permaculture and localism.   Real Green is for everyone and every local because it is a way of life that seeks relative change in hybridization of the old and new.  The relative part allows anyone to adapt and mitigate their local away from delocalization and towards localism.  It allows a guilt reduction and a way to address helplessness.  REAL Green acknowledges and accepts we are carbon trapped in path dependencies so there is no way to transcend this determinism.  This difference allow meaning to all adaptation and mitigation strategies.  It allows a spiritual dignity of decline when one realizes this decline is the force present with the planet but also human systemness.

 

So, this REAL Green journey is a spiritual one that manifests itself in action.  Prepping and permaculture come from the realization the status quo is going in the wrong direction.  Limits and diminishing returns are recognized.  More efficiency and power do not make life better beyond a point.  This then leads to efforts at scaling.  This scaling is relative to a local, the people in that local and one’s position in that local.  This influences an attempt to lower one’s footprint for the planet but also resilience.  This is done respecting the fact we are trapped so one can only disengage so much from the delocalization of modern life.  Most can’t quit their job or move.  Those who can should if it is determined that a local and their community is not a positive one.

 

REAL Green is economic.  Embracing permaculture, prepping, and localization means less economic return.  The old ways of carbon capture involve small value returns that require much more labor.  Therefore, REAL Green is hybrid and involves relative efforts.  You will have to remain status quo too and this means behavioral strategies are essential.  You are going to be poorer in things but richer in value.  You will need to triage out the superfluous to get lean.  This leanness is boosted by the redundancy of prepping.  Stocking up and adding equipment that is not immediately put to work has a cost.  This lowers the return to REAL Green, but it also offers insurance and strength.  The key becomes the balance of the status quo with scaling.  Each local and individual has a different profile, but many similarities exist.  This involves farming but also home economics and crafts.

 

Advanced REAL Green becomes a monastery of knowledge and things that is a seed bank for future change.  The future is our youth and they will need education.  Once the basics of REAL Green scaling are accomplished and there is a functionality to the effort then efforts at training and restoration can be applied to neighbors and nearby space.  This must often be done in stealth because it is an alternative lifestyle that carries a risk of being seen as nutter.  Be careful in how much is revealed.  The gift of REAL Green is for the awakened to planetary and human decline not status quo promoters.  These promoters are both green and brown.  Fake greens want affluence and green and this is not green.  Browns want whatever produces growth.  Both mindsets are delusional about limits and decline.  They can be harnessed to enhance a REAL Green local because REAL Green is about using the best products and practices of the status quo of delocalization to enhance the old-world ways proven for a millennium of human survival.  Instead of globalism destroying the local in delocalization a REAL Green uses these delocalizing forces to boost the local.

 

Finally, this is about humility to the planet and to your significant others.  The humility to the planet is the understanding the planet acquiesces your living.  Second is the fact that you are awakened to acceptance and honest science means it is your duty to be other oriented.  You are tasked with helping others to be REAL Green not as one preaches a religion or a cult because REAL Green is local and individual, it is about offering an add-on to one’s existing higher power meaning by including nature and the decline process into their meaning.  The humility comes with being a shaman.  A shaman allows the planet to speak through them and that power is not for their own possession.  This is important because one usurps this planetary power for one’s own gain it is lost.

 

 

“The Four Dimensions of Change”

https://tinyurl.com/voqoucr     resilience

 

“The first dimension consists of “holding actions,” that is, efforts to slow down the damage of our current ecologically-destructive consumptive society. In essence, saving what we can of Earth and biodiversity and “caring for those that have been damaged” by “the unraveling of our social fabric.” While essential, these are defensive acts, as Macy and Johnstone explain. “For every acre of forest protected, many others are lost,” and therefore will never, alone, get us to a Great Turning… The second dimension is one of “Life-sustaining systems and practices.” These are the efforts to transform our cultures to reorient them on sustainability instead of consumerism and growth. I’ve explored this dimension for years and they occur on a vast array of scales, from the micro- to the macro… “these new structures won’t take root and survive without deeply ingrained values to sustain them.”… Cultivating and sustaining these values is the third dimension, the “Shift in Consciousness.” In the Yale article, Buzzell described it this way: “Raise your level of consciousness. And that could be getting more scientific information, or it could be doing some kind of consciousness practice like meditation or perhaps spending time by yourself alone out in nature.”… We take part in this third dimension of the Great Turning when we pay attention to the inner frontier of change, to the personal and spiritual development that enhances our capacity and desire to act for our world. By strengthening our compassion, we give fuel to our courage and determination. By refreshing our sense of belonging in the world, we widen the web of relationships that nourishes us and protects us from burnout. In the past, changing the self and changing the world were often regarded as separate endeavors and viewed in either-or terms. But in the story of the Great Turning, they are recognized as mutually reinforcing and essential to one another… But in this case the fourth dimension could simply be time. Our culture exacerbates time stress in myriad ways—from obsession with aging and mortality, to “buy now” advertising and constant tech upgrades, to poorly communicated environmental warnings like we have just “12 years to limit climate catastrophe.” But truthfully this may all be counterproductive and anxiety-producing, and frankly, is just wrong. The window to “save the planet” probably closed 40 or 50 years ago… Instead, we need to look at this as a lifelong journey (or even our own personal hero quests) rather than a sprint. And as we embark on these journeys, we have to ask ourselves: How, over the course of my lifetime, will my actions, my relationships, my work, and words help in healing Gaia?… In that process, we must also recognize that the only scale to measure this should be oriented on you—on your position in society”

The Gradient of Decline is Accelerating

It has been my view for years it is the economy that will initiate the collapse process acceleration.  We have been in a broad-based decline now for years.  This is both human and planetary.  These have been long term slow processes of increasing abandonment, dysfunction, and irrational on the human side.  On the planetary side it has been increasing system destabilization, ecosystem decline, and localized ecosystem failure.

 

The global economy has been remarkably resilient up until now.  This has not changed the dynamics of decline it has just meant this decline process was in effect an undulating plateau because of global value chain strength and tech advances.  There have been real advances in abilities in the last 20 years.  Yet, there has also been the inertia of diminishing returns of malinvestment and Ponzi economics.  The malinvestment is the parasitic effects of improper applications of value chain capital in investments that do not bring the returned advertised.  This leads to efforts to conceal these poor investments in economic policy of rate repression and artificial liquidity of easing.  This is made worse because in this process is the corruption of standards, practices and values in other words moral hazards.  Value pricing is distorted with the contamination distorted returns.  True value is papered over by investments in short term yield seeking instead of longer-term productivity.  This also involves lack of cleansing which in economics is the acceptance of the consequences of failure which recessions are meant to facilitate.  A party must pay for consequences of poor actions at some point.  Dispersing these moral hazard costs into the system just spreads risk of worse.

 

This decay can go on for years more as the last 12 years can attest to.  The great financial crisis was just absorbed into a new process of accelerated decline from distortions and malinvestment.  The world is now to a point where a black swan shock has occurred during a period of economic tension at a peaking of debt, unfunded liabilities, and civil discord.  These are the kind of ingredients for a bifurcation.  Thresholds are pushed, break, and settle at new stable levels.  The problem now is a break (recession and or depression) will be very severe because of interconnectedness of value chains and capital globally.  Include distrust and national intrigue and the potential results are truly dangerous.  This then becomes a gaming process at the highest levels within a zero-sum gain where all parties suffer decline.  This is calculated like in war where battles are fought with the understanding of losses but where attrition becomes the main tool.  Everyone loses but some gain relatively in decline.  The problem with this battle is the terrain is a complex self-organizing world with complicated interconnectedness.  The results of this conflict then are unpredictable because they involve the physics of turbulence with confusion, strong sudden movements, and phase change.

 

We now are in a potential global pandemic which will surely disrupt and hammer global value chains, global travel, and global financial markets.  Financial markets are elevated and frothy with unrealistic value related to financial repression and easing.  They do not represent true value.  Real value is a fraction of stated value.  Value chains that contribute so much production are splintering.  How much reboots is debatable?  Surely some will disappear meaning lower economic activity.  Global travel is vital for tourism but also value chains.  Airlines, hoteling, and leisure are major markets employing millions.  This then all leads to bankruptcies, unemployment and pressure on safety nets.  There is no way to predict how this plays out except poorly.  It will likely remain a process with non linear reactions within the overall gradient of decline.  The gradient will steepen making the disruptive eddies within the decline process worse.

 

The real danger of the current possible pandemic is not the death rate.  Global population growth will absorb this with no problem.  The real problem is the economic dislocations.  This could be the real villain that eventually increases the death rate from food and shelter issues.  When vital hubs of networks are damaged then the real decline proceeds.  There is a percentage of valuable human skill sets that are required to keep systems going.  Once these systems are disrupted then they fail and they fail spectacularly.  The grid then becomes destabilized.  The global system is not there yet but we are in the vicinity of cascading decline.

 

‘You Are Here’ – The Stages Of Collapse Exposed”

https://gnseconomics.com/en_US/2020/02/10/the-stages-of-the-collapse/     gns economics

 

“Could the coronavirus act as a catalyst for a new global economic crisis? It certainly has that potential – but how would the crisis proceed?… In the December 2018 issue of our Q-Review, we laid out the likely scenarios of an approaching global economic collapse. But, like most things in life, such a dramatic event is unlikely to proceed in a linear fashion. There will be different stages within it.  In December 2019 we outlined these stages, which are likely five: the onset, counter-attack, flood, calamity and recovery. Here, we briefly define the characteristics of each. The onset  Currently, there seems to be two possible ignition points for the collapse: the credit market and the European banking sector…Cascading banking troubles in Europe will have the same destabilizing effects on the global stock and bond markets.  The counterattack  The second phase of the collapse will be the desperate efforts of authorities to stop the crisis by a counterattack.  These are likely to include the restarting and acceleration of QE-programs and other market support programs, gigantic fiscal stimulus, increasing trade protectionism and possibly even calls for direct debt monetization…Most of the governments of the Eurozone are too indebted to engage in any meaningful stimulus, especially when confronted with cascading bank problems and eventual failures. China will desperately try to enact even more fiscal stimulus, but due to the collapse of global economic demand and the probable implosion of the housing and financial system bubbles in China, such attempts will be wholly inadequate.  The Chinese economy will slam to earth in a hard landing.  The flood  The crack-up in the credit and stock markets will be followed by a flood of corporate bankruptcies.  So-called “zombie” corporations, faced with collapsing economic demand and exploding interest rates—due to the banking crisis and crashing credit markets—will fail on a scale unseen in decades. The value of the holdings of pension funds, charitable endowments, trust funds, insurance company variable accounts, and stock and bond mutual funds will crash in short order.  Even lowly money-market funds may be at risk, just as they were in the Financial Crisis…The calamity   Due to both crashing capital markets and banking sector bankruptcies, joblessness and poverty are likely to explode.  Simultaneously, government tax revenues will collapse as incomes retreat and capital gains evaporate.  As governments spending skyrockets in an orgy of Keynesian counter-cyclicality, national deficits will hit all-time highs on both an absolute and relative basis.  Governments will try to save critically-important banks, which will require large-scale funding many countries—such as those in the Eurozone—cannot afford and will not be able to finance in paralyzed  capital markets. This economic reality makes depositor bail-ins the only, if politically-unpalatable option…The recovery  We expect the global depression to last 4-5 years. The initial collapse is likely to be over within three years.  The path to recovery will depend crucially on how far the ‘cleansing’ of the economy, markets and financial sector is allowed to go. If the banking sector implodes completely, the economic deficit will naturally be made much deeper leading to a systemic crisis…The virus is so hazardous for the Chinese economy, because the virus itself and the draconian measures adopted to contain it disrupt production and the incomes of millions of highly-indebted firms and households. The longer that this broad economic stress continues, the higher the likelihood of corporate defaults and bankruptcies.  China’s banking system is extremely levered (see Figure 2).  As we explained in Q-Review 4/2019, China’s banking system will be unable to cope with any longer slowing down of growth, not to speak of a recession.  Large-scale defaults and bankruptcies caused by the reasons just discussed would hit the Chinese banking sector especially hard. The virus can in this way easily act as a catalyst for a deep and severe banking crisis in China. It would guarantee a global recession.”

The Dualism of REAL Green

“… the difficulty of living in two worlds at the same time, the post-industrial and the sustainable future.  I wonder if you ever feel the same. ”

 

Personally, I think this is one of the toughest parts of being a green prepper.  The ability to carry on your status quo life but also prep for some kind of collapse process is the key.  So, this comes down to behavior again.  The psychological aspect of adapting to a collapse process is what I like to call the hospice with tech being the lifeboat.  This psychological aspect is the hardest to attain because it requires one living in two world which are juxtaposition.  You must live and grow in the status quo or you are outcompeted but in a world of collapse the key is to collapse in place in relative decline.  This requires special mental skills of adaptation to both lives in a balance.  Most of us who are fully engaged in the collapse process would like to go 100% into what we feel is the proper way to emulate.   This collapse process is supported by honest science but we cannot go 100% or else we upset the status quo of place and significant others.  A radical departure into a new way of life characterized by following the gradient of decline can destroy one’s life if undertaken improperly.

 

This is not to say some cannot do it.  In fact I would recommend this to those who can because it is the way of truth.  To a true higher intelligence, the truth characterizes the journey with the destination accepted.  To those who can’t go 100% I recommend a second way and that is a retreat in force and by this, I mean living a hybrid life of decline and growth.  You must be green and brown to get greener.  Use the status quo to leave it and in this process psychologically accept failure and guilt as the basis.  This acceptance of failure and guilt gives cover for the seemingly incongruous behaviors one must live with like driving and consumerism when one knows these are so destructive.  Behavior is the KEY and localized behavior at that.  The status quo is path dependent and carbon trapped but the local can adapt to less with proper orientation.

Denialism

I am not seeing a coherent climate plan coming out of the movement.  If the plan were sound then denialist would have a much harder time.  In fact, I see denial out of the climate movement with their so-called solutions.  Many of these claimed solutions are a scientific farce when reality tested with economics and systemness.  The ecology of some of the plans is plain dirty and destructive.  We have our best and brightest scientist proposing technologically dubious plans.  These plans are pushing science that has not been proven.  They are not realistic with affordability.  The scale of these proposals is monstrous.  The ideas of how humans should live in these new worlds is unrealistic.

 

I will admit renewables have a place as an extender of our modern way of life.  We can get greener with them.  Please don’t tell me EV’s are green because they are not.  You can’t green the car culture.  Then there is the Degrowthers who speak about a circular economy.  I love the idea of it but degrowth means collapse economically.  How “collapsed” is a big question but there will be no circular economy except at very small scales.  So, our climate lefties are plenty at fault for denial it is just on the other side of the discussion.

 

Denying climate science is very hard to do and remain legitimate.  Yet is it legitimate to dream up all kinds of wild solutions to the climate problems ahead?  This is OK because it is said that we must be optimistic.   We should be like they were in WWII with a Green New Deal and so forth.  Let’s be like Kennedy and propose a moon landing.  We can do it if we try type thing.  Has anyone ever thought that maybe this is just digging the hole deeper?  Finally, man has hit the brick wall but nobody will admit it.  Will more techno solutions and more behavioral delusions going to make this tragedy better?  I don’t think so.

 

There is nothing I see out there that says we can cut emissions and clean up our activity by 2050 or even 2080.  People like to think we can advance technologically and solve the problem because that is what we have done.  How about just admitting defeat?  Start outfitting lifeboats for adapting and mitigating the coming destructive period.  How about hospices of meaning where people talk about decline and collapse?  To be fair such discussions are not possible so I guess by default the climate movement wins.  Yet, they do not win on merit but instead only default.  Yes, climate deniers are wrong I agree but don’t tell me climate movement hype and expect me to agree.  What happens if you don’t agree with these green radicals?  If you don’t agree then they called you a climate denier or better yet a Trumper.

 

I am outfitting my life for decline.  I invested in solar and many other green strategies.  I am also adapting behavior.  I am doing it for what I feel is the right reason and that is green prepping.  I want to live locally so I am investing in scalability of a way of life post peak modernism.  I am a tree hugger and believe in localism but I do not care for the climate movement.  They are barking up a tree like lunatics.  They are better than the browns but not by much.  This whole show is going to crash green or brown.

 

 

“William Rees: Memo from a Climate Crisis Realist: The Choice before Us”

https://tinyurl.com/stdrcxy     energy skeptic

 

So, where might we go from here? A rational world with a good grasp of reality would have begun articulating a long-term wind-down strategy 20 or 30 years ago. The needed global emergency plan would certainly have included most of the 11 realistic responses to the climate crisis listed below — which, even if implemented today would at least slow the coming unravelling. And no, the currently proposed Green New Deal won’t do it.  Here, then, is what an effective “Green New Deal” might look like:

Formal recognition of the end of material growth and the need to reduce the human ecological footprint;

Acknowledgement that, as long as we remain in overshoot — exploiting essential ecosystems faster than they can regenerate — sustainable production/consumption means less production/consumption;

Recognition of the theoretical and practical difficulties/impossibility of an all-green quantitatively equivalent energy transition;

Assistance to communities, families and individuals to facilitate the adoption of sustainable lifestyles (even North Americans lived happily on half the energy per capita in the 1960s that we use today);

Identification and implementation of strategies (e.g., taxes, fines) to encourage/force individuals and corporations to eliminate unnecessary fossil fuel use and reduce energy waste (half or more of energy “consumed” is wasted through inefficiencies and carelessness);

Programs to retrain the workforce for constructive employment in the new survival economy;

Policies to restructure the global and national economies to remain within the remaining “allowable” carbon budget while developing/improving sustainable energy alternatives;

Processes to allocate the remaining carbon budget (through rationing, quotas, etc.) fairly to essential uses only, such as food production, space/water heating, inter-urban transportation;

Plans to reduce the need for interregional transportation and increase regional resilience by re-localizing essential economic activity (de-globalization); image atom Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist read more

Recognition that equitable sustainability requires fiscal mechanisms for income/wealth redistribution;

A global population strategy to enable a smooth descent to the two to three billion that could live comfortably indefinitely within the biophysical means of nature.

“What? A deliberate contraction? That’s not going to happen!” I hear you say. And you are probably correct. It should by now be clear that H. sapiens is not primarily a rational species.  But in being correct you only prove me correct. Disastrous climate change and energy shortages are near certainties in this century and global societal collapse a growing possibility that puts billions at risk.

REAL Green Scaling

REAL Green admires and respects doctrines like the Simpler Way and Rojava Kurds but does not embrace these doctrines as such.  REAL Green concern is scaling of localism.  In a relative sense localism will never scale to the level many like the Simpler way adverts preach.  It is not an answer for levels above a local and small group.  This scale is as small as the individual because often there is no REAL Green present in ones local.  It can be a lonely affair but one that is honest.   The reason this is the case is the carbon trap and path dependencies that anchor the status quo firmly in a brittle climax economic and social system.  What REAL Green does instead is yields to scale and forages off it.  REAL Green realizes status quo scale wins if you resist it but you can adapt it locally.  You will still have to pay your tribute which means you will have to delocalize as required to make a living.  A rare few can withdraw in ideal circumstances into REAL Green monasteries and even these lucky ones are still trapped in a common failure.

 

It is scaling that allows trap mitigation.  REAL Green finds strength in scale.  Small scale and low carbon gathering activities form the basis of scale mitigation.  The status quo is a global late stage capitalism of overshoot of consumption and population in an Anthropocene of planetary decline.  A scale mitigation strategy requires a careful transitioning to a simpler way of life.  It is careful because it requires diligent wisdom of what lifestyles and tech to embrace.  It is not a rejection of tech nor a counter revolution of the status quo behavior but instead a way that yields to it but in strength.  The strength is the meaning that comes with low carbon capture techniques along with localizing behavior efforts.  It is the hybridization of old ways that were naturally local and the benefits of the huge amount of knowledge and material the modern status quo has made possible.

 

The gatekeeper is REAL Green Wisdom that seeks mostly less.  This less is avoiding the pitfalls of tech and knowledge that are a siren song of delocalization.  It is the triage of this siren song that is the basis of REAL Green wisdom because we live in a world of too much of everything complicating and disrupting harmony.  We are sucked into delocalization through dopamine hits of physical and mental pleasures.  REAL Green preaches a relative asceticism, stoicism, and Spartan living.  The relative nature of this action is avoiding the radical and the destructive of overt disruptive behavior.  Remain under the radar screen in camouflage of humility.  Your delocalized status quo trapped local only allows so much deviation materially and with meaning.  This is an add on not a new way for your local which includes place but also group.  You can only adapt your local away from the trend of delocalization and relativisms.  You cannot stop the process of decline and collapse because this is planetary and systematically path dependent.  It is the nature of succession that occurs when a species and ecosystem are in a condition of being at the thresholds of overshoot.  This overshoot is planetary and systematic and all the more reason it is a unbeatable trap.  It is about accepting the failure of this system your local is trapped in.  It is about making life boats and hospices to this condition.  The lifeboats are alternative living and the hospices is the acceptance of death in a holistic way.  This points to one of your most important REAL Green decisions and that is picking your local.

 

What is meant by this is the embrace of collapse with green prepping.  It is about the journey which is an organized retreat in force.  Even though a REAL Green local is yielding to greater powers and in retreat this retreat is in force and organized.  It is drawing on the energy of the stats quo to leave it into a local that is more resilient and sustainable to the coming end of the status quo of delocalization.  Doctrines that are offered to those who think the status quo can be made different get lost in the futile effort of battling the trap.  They think there are ways to transcend the trap and transition out of it but this is little more than those in the denial of death in terminal illness.  REAL Green calls these people FAKE Greens because they are living a similar delusion as the Brown DELUSIONALIST.  A brown is in science denial or the bargaining of beneficial science to create a narrative of success.  A Fake Green is a step up by being honest about the science of planetary and social decline but delusional and bargaining with the science of the solutions.  Both groups have not made it through the stages of grief.  Both are in the neurotic condition of cognitive dissonance of existential wandering that a world of relativistic meaning requires.

 

REAL Green starts with failure and its acceptance and springs forth to activity embracing a journey of green prepping that seeks proper scaling.  This proper scaling offers meaning and planetary support.  The meaning comes from knowing the truth and the planetary support comes from proper scaling to a planetary process of succession into a less complex and less supportive natural environment that only localism can adapt to.  The planet is dying and so is civilization.  REAL Green scales to this both mentally and physically and this is what offer a meaning that powers the journey.  This journey is into the gauntlet of collapse in acceptance to the end that is the failure of all we have come to know through the habituation of growth materially and with the advancement of knowledge that came with that growth.

 

 

“Kurdist Rojava: A Social Model for our Future”

https://tinyurl.com/vo7rqyq     resiliance

 

“The immense relevance of Rojava should now be apparent.  It is one of the most impressive examples of people building a society based on the kinds of principles and practices that must be adopted if we are to make a transition to a sustainable and just society.  Summarising the main elements in this remarkable venture show how closely it aligns with the Simper Way perspective:  The basic social unit is the small local community which decides most of the economic, legal and social issues affecting it.  The orientation is cooperative and collectivist, focused on finding the best way for the community.  Both the capitalist and the state-controlled way are rejected, in favour of grass roots democratic control.  Hierarchy, domination and top-down power are rejected. The community governs itself via thoroughly participatory processes.  The economy is geared mostly to local self-sufficiency and is not driven by profit or market forces or the individual quest for wealth; it is driven by the intention of meeting needs.  Much production is carried out via cooperatives and much productive property is publicly owned and commons.  Inclusiveness is a high priority; the underdog is provided for, jobs are found for the poor and unemployed.  Emphasis is given to ecological sustainability, especially to developing sustainable local agriculture.  The vicious trap that is the conventional “development” ideology is avoided. That doctrine asserts that growth of GDP = development, you must compete in the global market place, you need for capital and loans to build the infrastructures investors want (so they can ship out your resources). If you accept these myths you will soon end up in impossible debt, and have to wait many decades before any benefit trickles down to your poor masses. But development in Rojava focuses on using local resources to produce basic necessities for local people with almost no dependence on capital, investors or the global economy. (See TSW: Third World Development.)  Its change strategy centres on “prefiguring”, that is building new ways within the old system.  Thus the centrality of cultural revolution is recognized. If people come to understand and happily opt for the new ways, then they will eagerly build and run them.  Little or nothing can be achieved by ruthless vanguard parties using violence to take state power if people in general don’t have the necessary vision. Participatory control of “state-level” functions will come later as the grassroots movement strengthens.  It should also be clearly evident that Rojava is confirming the basic Simpler Way claim that the required perspective for saving the planet is not Eco-socialist, it is Eco-Anarchist.”

Anticipating Collapse

“Anticipating Collapse”

https://tinyurl.com/tx9smly     damariszehner

 

“Collapse can’t happen soon enough, as far as I’m concerned. By collapse, I mean the breakdown of the complexities of our current society.”

 

The pace of collapse is a difficult topic to define in regards to good or bad.  It is clear we are in a collapse process of sorts now but one punctuated by growth also.  The problem with this undulating plateau of a growth-based world entering a collapse process is much of the growth that is occurring is bad investments in regards to longer term sustainability.  This includes so called green investment which is many times fake green.  The pace of this decline is critical to survivability because degree and duration of shocks dictate species survival in an ecological succession.  While our species may survive a decline our institutions so important to (so called) civilized people might not survive.  It is likely we are going to have to have a little bit browner decline than many greens would like.  The KEY is behavior not tech.  Tech comes second.  Until greens realize this they are doomed.  Too many greens do not accept failure but that is the starting point for proper behavior.  Once acceptance is found then mitigation and adaptation can be embraced.  Acceptance does not ensure survival of our cherished institutions but it does give us hope

 

“But there are two points I want to make about collapse: that it is inevitable; and that it is necessary before genuine reform can take place.”

 

It is true that nature is categorized by evolution and succession of complexity.  It is likely our civilization may be too brittle to adequately change but it is also true that often shocks that create crisis are essential to behavioral changes and this issue of a better collapse is really about behavior with tech second.  In regards to the tech it is about properly applied tech with a gate keeper of a wisdom honed in a decline process IOW a wisdom that has gone through the stages of grief and is orientated to decline.  This orientation means choosing less complexity but relatively based upon the rate of decline.

 

“collapse now and avoid the rush,” as John Michael Greer puts it.”

 

This is what realgreenadaptation.blog talks about.  It is about localism and acceptance of a coming collapse process.  Collapse does not have to be bad it can be a way of life.  REAL Geen calls it green prepping.  It is a journey not a destination.  The destination is likely collapse for all of us but the journey means some will collapse sooner and harder than others.  Be one of those who tries to adapt to this.

 

“But the future doesn’t need to be a Book of Eli scenario of blasted landscapes, gangs, and cannibalism.”

 

The sad reality is when Hollywood gets involved the picture is clouded.  When our best minds in academia are in denial then the good aspects of a decline process are not expressed.  It becomes an issue of “failure is not an option” pushing crazy green initiatives that will likely fail instead of a measured retreat of civilization that is both green and brown.